Back in 2012, the Lakers traded a lightly protected first-round pick to the Suns for two-time NBA MVP and All-Star point guard Steve Nash. The result was a disastrous run in Los Angeles for Nash and a trade that brought Brandon Knight to the Suns and handed the pick to the 76ers for the cost of Michael Carter-Williams.
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Now, entering Tuesday night’s 2016 NBA Draft Lottery, the stakes are incredibly high again. The Lakers need to land a top-three pick in this draft to retain their pick. Thanks to finishing with the second-worst record in the NBA, they have a 55.8 percent chance of doing that, compared to a 44.2 percent chance of sending either the fourth or fifth pick of the draft to the 76ers.
The Lakers already received the benefit of the protection last year, as they had the fourth-best lottery odds in 2015 but jumped into the top three to keep the choice and select D’Angelo Russell.
But while the 2015 NBA Draft was seen as deep and talented, the 2016 NBA Draft is top-heavy with two high-end talents who are not unquestioned star material but still a cut above everyone else. Since the pick can only go to the Sixers if it is No. 4 or No. 5, both Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram should be off the board since even one “mistake” would not be enough. As such, getting the pick this year means choosing someone a tier below.
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What makes this situation fascinating is that the 2016 draft class is widely considered to be a weak one, though there are benefits to locking in players under the incredibly favorable current rookie scale. In order to get a clearer picture of the possibilities, it is best to take a quick look into the potential future of this obligation:
Pick goes to the 76ers in 2016
As explained above, this scenario is the easiest to consider. It would be a brutal blow to the Lakers’ rebuilding efforts and a huge victory for the 76ers’.
Pick goes to the 76ers in 2017
The pick is only protected in the top three yet again in 2017, but it may not come down to that. In all likelihood, the Lakers will improve next season, be it because their young players get older and deeper or because they land a free agent or trade acquisition who immediately helps. That should be OK for the 76ers.
The upcoming freshman class in colleges around the country looks substantially deeper than this past year with talent all over the floor. Forwards Josh Jackson and Jayson Tatum have the potential to be difference-makers on strong teams, while the draft class also is deep on big men, including Harry Giles, Thomas Bryant and Ivan Rabb. Philadelphia will not be looking for another center but talented size could push down the players they are most interested in like Washington-bound big guard Markelle Fultz or intriguing French guard Frank Ntilikina.
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However, shifting the pick back also dramatically increases the 76ers’ uncertainty. The Lakers scuffled during the last few seasons of Kobe Bryant’s career but have an appalling amount of cap space — around $60 million. That gives a team in one of the league’s most desirable cities enough to bring in two max players through free agency, trade or a combination of the two. On top of that, the Lakers would be adding another top-three pick to Russell, Jordan Clarkson, Julius Randle and whomever else they retain.
It may not be likely that they move all the way into the playoffs in what should be a deep Western Conference but a substantially later lottery pick would need a strong draft class and some mistake picks to be as valuable as the Sixers would like. Additionally, the league could be operating under a new Collective Bargaining Agreement at that point, which could make the rookie scale more competitive. It likely will not be a major difference since players too young to play in the NBA are not parties in the negotiation but the rising revenue tide could produce small reforms that raise the cost.
Pick goes to the 76ers in 2018
The Lakers’ uncertainty that looms over the 2017 pick landscape becomes even larger if they keep the pick another year. While the NBA’s 2016 free agent class mirrors the top-heavy 2016 draft class, 2017 will be stacked with talented players like Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Blake Griffin, Chris Paul and Serge Ibaka, with all but Paul hitting the open market for the first time in their career. Getting even one of that group likely cripples the chances of Philadelphia getting a great pick in 2018.
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That said, uncertainty can go the other way as well. A slip up or two and some lottery luck could make this pick a game changer for the Sixers. Phoenix added Tyson Chandler and Devin Booker last summer but still have the fourth-best odds this season after injuries ravaged their chances, and New Orleans had a similar story. It is also possible that the league enacts modest lottery reform over the next two years that evens out the chances for teams near the bottom and completely changes the calculus for who moves up.
Delayed gratification
There is another benefit for having the rights to lightly protected picks in the more distant future. At some point, Philadelphia will become a more competitive team, which directly weakens their own chances of getting a superstar through the draft. They have a strong collection of young players that should only get better this summer through augmenting their ranks and internal improvement.
As the Celtics can attest to, having owed lottery picks allows a franchise to push in the present while maintaining a chance at good fortune. On top of that, it also creates the possibility of adding a strong young talent to a more competitive, older iteration the team better suited for that kind of infusion.
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What Sixers fans should want is more a matter of personal taste but the specific nature of the Lakers obligation makes not getting the pick tonight substantially more palatable.