Just when it appeared as though Ben Simmons had the Rookie of the Year award on lock, Donovan Mitchell burst onto the scene.
Unlike Simmons, it took Mitchell some time to find his footing in the NBA. He came off the bench for eight of the first 11 games of his career and surpassed the 30-minute mark only three times during that stretch. It wasn’t until the end of November that he began to find his stride, and he’s been on fire ever since.
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In the 20 games following his 1-for-10 shooting performance against the Bulls on Nov. 22, Mitchell has averaged 22.3 points per game on 48.8 percent shooting from the field and 37.1 percent shooting from the perimeter. He now leads all rookies in scoring on the season with 18.4 points per game.
The Jazz only won seven of those 20 games, but they’ve been a completely different team with Mitchell in the lineup over the last seven weeks. In the 683 minutes he has been on the court, the Jazz have been outscored by only eight points. In the 373 minutes Mitchell has spent on the bench, they’ve been outscored by a total of 26 points. It works out to be a difference of 2.5 points per 100 possessions, the same margin that separates a team like the Spurs from the Bucks.
So how has the 13th pick in the 2017 NBA Draft become one of the favorites to win Rookie of the Year? To get a better understanding of how dominant he has been, let’s take a closer look at what Mitchell has displayed on both ends of the court through 39 games.
An explosive scorer without and without the ball
Mitchell is already comfortable scoring at three levels. His most NBA-ready offensive skill coming into the 2017 NBA Draft was his outside jump shot, and he’s made 42.2 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3-pointers thus far on a decent sample size of 3.0 attempts per game. More encouraging than the numbers is Mitchell looks the part of a shooter. He has a compact form, a smooth release and he gets his shot off quickly. He isn’t afraid of shooting from deep, either.
Mitchell has also proven the ability to create efficient shots for himself when defenders close out on him on the 3-point line. It’s helped him become one of the best spot-up scorers in the NBA this season with an average of 1.22 points per spot-up possession. While he hasn’t made all of those in-between shots at a high rate — he’s converted 36.3 percent of his 2-point pull-ups and 34.9 percent of his floaters — he’s at least showcased his potential in those areas.
It’s a similar case with his 3-point pull-up. Mitchell has made only 28.8 percent of those opportunities, but it’s a shot he doesn’t shy away from, and one he’ll have to make at a high rate to improve as an isolation (0.88 points per possession) and pick-and-roll scorer (0.83 points per possession). It’s an important shot for any guard in today’s NBA, particularly ones who are expected to handle the ball as much as Mitchell does in the half court.
If he can develop a consistent 3-point stroke off the dribble, it’ll be incredibly difficult for defenders to stay in front of Mitchell because he’s an explosive scorer with the ball in his hands. He has a quick first step, and he can get his shot off in a variety of ways, ranging from basic spin moves to unorthodox finishes you’d expect to see from a veteran. Thanks to a 6-10 wingspan and 40-inch vertical — both impressive measurements for a 6-3 guard — Mitchell can even finish over defenders, especially when he is given space to gather off of two feet.
Being able to score at three levels gives Mitchell the tools to create his own shot against the best defenders in the league. He doesn’t generate many of his points in isolation, but 60.8 percent of his made baskets thus far have been unassisted. It’s why the Jazz have been comfortable putting the ball in his hands at the end of close games.
According to NBA.com, Mitchell has scored a total of 41 points in 44 clutch minutes this season on 51.6 percent shooting from the floor. The only rookies who have scored more clutch points are Simmons, Jayson Tatum and Lauri Markkanen, and they have each played in over 80 clutch minutes.
That’s not to say there isn’t room for improvement for Mitchell as a scorer. In addition to becoming a more consistent 3-point shooter off the dribble, those floaters are important for his long-term development, considering he isn’t the tallest of guards. It’s encouraging that he looks comfortable pulling-up from midrange, but he seems to second-guess himself at times when there’s an imposing defender standing between him and the basket.
Not trusting himself in those situations has played in a role in Mitchell being blocked 34 times this season, a figure that puts him near the top of the league alongside other volume scorers such as Russell Westbrook, Damian Lillard and Kemba Walker. If Mitchell does become more confident with his floater, these are the plays that should happen less frequently:
Mitchell’s shot selection has been questionable at times as well, but it has more to do with what he’s being asked to do than his basketball IQ. Mitchell has basically taken over Gordon Hayward’s role from last season as the primary scorer for the Jazz, which is a tall task anyone, let alone a rookie selected with the 13th pick in the NBA Draft.
Mitchell has adjusted to the role better than anyone could’ve expected — the Jazz are an average team offensively with Mitchell on the court and absolutely miserable with him on the bench — but it’s forced him to take on a bigger load than he was probably prepared for.
Playing alongside a better point guard and more capable outside shooters would help Mitchell in that regard. The former would allow him to spend more time off-ball and the latter would give him more room to operate in the half court. It’s something the Jazz will have to keep in mind as they start to build the next version of this team around Mitchell and Rudy Gobert.
A better passer than expected
One of the biggest criticisms of Mitchell heading into the NBA Draft was that he was slightly undersized to play shooting guard in the NBA and not skilled enough with the ball in his hands to be a point guard. He won’t likely ever be a pass-first guard, but he’s already made noticeable strides as a facilitator this season.
The Jazz don’t necessarily need Mitchell to be a pass-first guard anyway. What they do need him to do is set up his teammates with easy baskets when he’s able to draw the attention of multiple defenders, which happens frequently given his ability to create his own shot off the dribble. It’s what separates Mitchell from someone like Simmons. Whereas Simmons is constantly looking for his teammates when he has the ball in his hands, Mitchell is a scorer first and a passer second.
It’s why a lot of Mitchell’s assists come from simple reads like this:
There’s nothing wrong with those being simple assists because they often lead to high quality shot attempts. According to NBA.com, 85.8 percent of Mitchell’s assists thus far have either come directly at the rim or from the 3-point line. So if he’s not setting up one of his teammates with a wide open 3-pointer, odds are they’re being gifted with a layup or dunk.
Those assists still require Mitchell to read the defense like a point guard. It’s one thing to make the right pass when the defense collapses. It’s another to read the defense and recognize when they are cheating in anticipation of him making the obvious pass. It’s what he does on the following possession by keeping an eye on Juan Hernangomez and launching a cross-court pass to Ricky Rubio as soon as the Nuggets forward commits to closing out on Joe Ingles:
Here’s another example of Mitchell’s court vision:
The simple play would’ve been to pass the ball to Ekpe Udoh underneath the basket, but Mitchell wisely waited for James Harden to make a decision. Had Harden stayed with Thabo Sefolosha in the corner, Mitchell would’ve dropped the ball off to Udoh for a dunk. Because Harden chose to take that option away, Mitchell held onto the ball until Harden made contact with Udoh before kicking it out to Sefolosha in the corner. It’s a smart read for a rookie, made all the more impressive by him delivering the pass on target with his off-hand.
Then there are passes like this:
It’s everything you need to know about Mitchell’s offensive potential in one play. If he wasn’t a good 3-point shooter on the catch, Ryan Anderson wouldn’t have closed out on him on the perimeter. If he wasn’t comfortable pulling-up from midrange, Harden wouldn’t have helped off his assignment. And if he wasn’t a threat to score at the rim, Clint Capela wouldn’t have rotated over to protect the basket. Mitchell then does the right thing by kicking the ball out to one of the best shooters in the NBA for a wide open 3-pointer.
As Jazz head coach Quin Snyder recently told ESPN, calling Mitchell a shooting guard does him a disservice because there is so much more to his game. While he can space the floor like a traditional shooting guard, he also has the skills of a point guard given how easily he can create for himself and others off the dribble.
Even if he never become a Harden-type passer, there’s enough diversity in his game to alternate between playing point guard and shooting guard depending on what the Jazz need. It opens up a world of possibilities for them in the future when it comes to who they pair Mitchell with in the backcourt.
A high upside defender
The wingspan and explosiveness mentioned earlier? They make Mitchell as pest on defense.
Mitchell already has 57 steals and 18 blocks this season. It puts him on pace to finish the season with around 120 steals and 30 blocks, which are totals only three other rookies his height have ever reached. It’s not necessarily the greatest of accomplishments in the big scheme of things, but it speaks to how disruptive of a defender Mitchell can be, both in one-on-one situations and as a helper.
Mitchell was projected as a 3-and-D wing entering the 2017 NBA Draft. Not only does he have the athleticism and length to excel on defense in the NBA, he’s already a solid 209 pounds. It gives him the size and strength to comfortably match up with at least two positions.
For example, check out Mitchell’s defense on Harden here:
Now watch him defend Westbrook:
Finally, watch how he matches up with Kyrie Irving:
Each of those assignments requires a different approach. In the case of Harden, Mitchell has to keep his arms up high to prevent him from passing the ball to Tarik Black on the roll. Mitchell then uses his strong upper body to keep Harden in front of him, all while keeping his hands to himself to avoid picking up a foul.
With Westbrook, Mitchell has to move his feet quicker so that the Thunder guard doesn’t explode past him off the dribble. And to contain Irving, Mitchell needs to rely on his lateral quickness to keep up with his crossovers. Irving gets the better of Mitchell in the example above — he was doomed when he let Irving get to the middle of the floor on the initial pick-and-roll — but he recovers well and forces him into a tough shot without fouling. There wasn't much more he could've done.
The advanced numbers don’t paint Mitchell as an impact defender yet. ESPN’s Real Plus-Minus says he’s a negative defender, and the Jazz’s defense has been slightly better with him on the bench. That, however, is to be expected from a rookie, especially one who is carrying as big of a load as Mitchell is offensively.
What’s important is Mitchell has the potential to grow into a difference-maker on defense. He has the physical tools to do so, as well as the mindset and tenacity to defend some of the best perimeter players in the league.
What to watch for next
As is the case with any rookie, it’ll be interesting to see how much of this is sustainable. Mitchell is coming off of an impressive month in which he averaged 23.1 points and 3.8 assists per game on 50.7 percent shooting from the field and 35.8 percent shooting from the perimeter.
He’s unlikely to put up those numbers for the remainder of the season — Mitchell would be in a class of his own if he did — but is he already a 20-point-per-game scorer in the NBA? Can he continue to score efficiently? Will he make a higher percentage of his 3-point pull-ups in the second half of the season?
Beyond the scoring, any improvements Mitchell makes as a passer and defender between now and the end of the season will be a step in the right direction. He's shown he can make the right reads and lock up elite offensive players, but doing both of those consistently is what will separate him from being a volume scorer and the type of weapon a team can build its entire system around. It gives Mitchell a ceiling you'd expect from a top three pick in the NBA Draft, not someone drafted 13th overall.
Even if he doesn't end the season as the Rookie of the Year, there's no doubt he has all the tools to develop into a star.
