Donatas Motiejunas is in a tough spot. Over the weekend, his qualifying offer with the Rockets expired, narrowing his options for the future. In February, Houston traded Motiejunas to the Pistons for a first-round pick, the kind of move that typically gives a player leverage entering the offseason. However, Detroit voided the trade because of Motiejunas’ back issues, returning him to a franchise that had just traded him while hurting his value around the league.
If Motiejunas wants to play in the NBA this season, he now only has two options: sign an offer sheet with another team or re-sign with the Rockets. The qualifying offer served as a third, easy path: a one-year contract worth $4.4 million that would have made Motiejunas an unrestricted free agent after the 2016-17 season. Meanwhile, an offer sheet could be more lucrative except that most teams have already used up their salary cap space.
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This is where the Nets come in. They still have substantial cap space (about $15 million) and a strong incentive to add talent because the Celtics hold a swap right on their 2017 first round draft pick. Outside of Brook Lopez, they are thin at center and have a perpetual need for more talent. Teams should never make an irresponsible offer that they want the prior team to match but there should be a middle ground in this situation. Other franchises (76ers, Nuggets, Suns and Timberwolves) have more than $10 million in cap space, but none has a clear need for a center, particularly on a multi-year deal, as offer sheets cannot be for one season.
While basketball should be the primary motive of any offer like this, the Nets have additional incentives to reach out to Motiejunas. Like everything else in the NBA, relationships play a major role in setting the table. Motiejunas is represented by B.J. Armstrong of the powerful Wasserman Media Group. The worst case scenario with a worthwhile offer sheet is helping out a power player in the business before an offseason where the major market team will have significant cap space.
A strong, reasonable offer sheet would also put the Rockets in a tough spot. Motiejunas is a talented player who was a core piece of the Rockets’ future until his back injuries last season. The 7-foot Lithuanian averaged 12.0 points, 5.9 rebounds and 1.8 assists while shooting 50.4 percent from the field and 36.8 percent on 3-pointers in 2014-15, and he would complement Clint Capela well in replacing Dwight Howard at center if he were to regain that form.
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The money makes keeping him tricky, however much the Rockets want to. Houston has fifteen fully guaranteed salaries not including Motiejunas or Kyle Wiltjer’s $275,000 partial guarantee, per Basketball Insiders. Since teams can only carry fifteen players at the start of the regular season, Rockets general manager Daryl Morey would have to shed one talented player either through trade or waivers. The Rockets are not close enough to the luxury tax for even a high Motiejunas salary to push them over, but taking on a multi-year matched offer sheet would reduce their flexibility in future seasons.
The right offer could allow Brooklyn to accomplish a rare double: adding a talented restricted free agent without providing any compensation. Incidentally, the GM most successful at pulling that off is the one they would be dealing with here, as Morey pried away restricted free agents Jeremy Lin and Omer Asik in 2012 without sacrificing any assets. The Rockets front office could see that and consider matching with the intent of trading Motiejunas eventually but a seemingly tepid market and the prospect of limited playing time hurting his value adds significant, possibly prohibitive risk to the equation.
Last season, a talented big man went through a similar agonizingly drawn out process. Tristan Thompson only started 15 games in his fourth season with the Cavaliers (Motiejunas started 22 last year) and ended up in a protracted negotiation after it appeared the two sides had an early agreement. The biggest difference is that Cleveland had no flexibility in the near or long term because of other contract obligations, and Thompson was essential to their title hopes, as we saw in June. Thompson ended up with a five-year, $82 million contract.
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Reduced pressure makes that kind of agreement unlikely in this case, but a one- or two-year contract could make sense. The qualifying offer being off the table increases Houston’s leverage, meaning they can decrease their offer. For this year, Motiejunas would help the Rockets out while retaining his freedom.
Yet again, that opens up possibilities for the Nets. A responsible but lucrative offer sheet from Brooklyn would give Motiejunas what he wants and the Nets a shot at improving while pushing the Rockets into a difficult decision.