In a 2014 draft full of potential superstars, sleepers, sure things and projects, Jusuf Nurkic was picked at 16th overall without a true label.
In fact, NBA scouts were relatively unaware of his whereabouts until 2013, when he participated in the annual Adidas EuroCamp and wowed those on hand. But even then, nobody saw him as a future lottery pick — certainly not the following year.
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The 2013-14 season was the final year overseas for Nurkic. He spent the season with Croatia's Cedevita (he also spent some time in 2013 with Croatia's Zadar club, hoping to notch a few more minutes). With Cedevita, he impressed scouts with his improved play on both ends, and led his team to the Croatian Cup, where he was awarded Finals MVP. This, combined with what scouts already knew from his Eurocamp visit, caused Nurkic's draft stock to skyrocket.
"Not able to showcase his skills at full display because of his youth, high foul rate and lack of consistency, Jusuf has progressed throughout past season more than any other international prospect," Nuggets international scout Rafal Juc told Sporting News. "He would have dominant moments, then sequences, then quarters, halves, games, weeks."
Part of it was his physicality. Even as a 19-year old, he was 6-11 and 280 pounds, with astounding levels of athleticism and a sense of awareness on both ends of the floor. That's hard to find in a 19-year-old player, let alone a guy with Nurkic's size.
In 2012, Juc, then working for a private scouting company not affiliated with the NBA, came across Nurkic for the first time. It was his international debut. With no knowledge that their paths would cross again two years later, Juc saw the potential in Nurkic well before he was on the NBA's radar.
"From the very first look, he impressed me with his physicality, being a brute force down low," Juc said.
As his stock continued to rise, it eventually became clear teams would look to draft him in 2014, even with some lottery consideration. Eventually, the Bulls selected Nurkic for the Nuggets, who swapped Doug McDermott for a player they still hope will become a cornerstone piece in the middle.
Currently, he's playing less than 15 minutes per game, but the demand for more minutes is becoming more and more difficult for Nuggets head coach Brian Shaw to deny.
Even in limited time, Nurkic is putting up 6.9 points, 5.3 rebounds and more than 1.3 blocks per game. His PER is a fantastic 19.26, illustrated clearly by his production in low minutes. Now that Denver has traded Timofey Mozgov to Cleveland, more minutes will be available to Nurkic to make a name for himself.
On offense, he has shown a steady jump shot that extends to the 3-point line, and he is an improving post player. He has great speed for a center, coupled with the potential to be a fast-break threat as he learns to run with Ty Lawson. Nurkic also possesses passing skills and excellent footwork for a 20-year-old big man, and he's adding a floater.
Defensively, the talent is there but the discipline is not. The fact that he blocks more than one shot per game in less than 15 minutes is telling. When on the floor, Nurkic improves his team's defensive rating by more than 10 points and the opposing team's effective field goal percentage drops from 50.2 percent to 44.5 percent, according to SB Nation's Nuggets blog, Denver Stiffs.
Still, his foul rate is far too high for a player who expects extra minutes down the stretch. He has fouled out of games in just 18 minutes. Despite the opposition's overall drop in offensive production, their free-throw rate jumps nearly 10 percent when Nurkic is on the floor.
Part of the problem is his love of blocking shots. Often, he'll find himself in the air on pump fakes, making it easy for the post player to draw the foul. He's certainly not afraid to be put on a poster, but that courage has cost him minutes on more than one occasion.
"He is fearless and physical, but he's also still learning the game," Shaw told Sporting News. "He really has a chance in this league and if he continues to put in the necessary work, his future will be bright."
All things considered, Nurkic has surprised almost everyone. Juc and the rest of the scouting staff did not expect this much production this quickly. Most saw Nurkic as a project who would eventually get his chance. Instead, he's proving his worth right from the jump.
"He keeps producing, and he keeps making coach Shaw put him in the game, and he keeps gaining the trust and respect of his teammates," Juc said.
There's a lot of work to do, but the foundation is there for Nurkic. He's gone from a virtual unknown to a starting-caliber center in about two years. His trajectory is ridiculous, and while his game remains unrefined, as Shaw said, his future is bright.