The opening round of the 2023 NBA Playoffs has been massively entertaining, but the Kings-Warriors series is easily the best through two games. Sacramento has continued its underdog tour into the postseason, lighting the beam after each of its first two playoff tilts against the defending champions. Coach of the Year Mike Brown has the Kings defying the odds, as the little three-seed-that-could only had a small percentage of the betting public believing in it.
We all knew the dominance Steph Curry and the Warriors have displayed since Golden State became a modern-day dynasty. Steve Kerr's squad won four championships in the seven years between 2015 and 2022, and we have never witnessed Curry go down 0-2 in a series in that span. Well, Curry and the Dubs are down 0-2 now, and the majority of the betting public is either wondering how it's happening or why they didn't take some of the many open seats on the Kings' bandwagon when they could have.
Let's take a look at just how much the sportsbooks, the betting public, and sharp bettors believed in the Kings' ability to knock off the Warriors in the first round, as well as the ticket and handle percentages for the individual games so far. Here are some insights from BetMGM into how the public has bet the Warriors and Kings.
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Warriors' series odds against Kings, championship futures entering the playoffs
Before the Warriors and Kings tipped off at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento over the weekend, Golden State was favored at -300 to win the series. That's despite its abysmal 11-30 road record this season, not to mention the fact that Sacramento finished as the three seed while Curry and Co. finished sixth.
The Warriors were also +900 to win the 2023 NBA Finals, and they had the second-highest handle (15.5 percent) and fourth-highest ticket percentage (10.3) of all championship futures. That means that 15.5 percent of all money bet on a specific NBA champion went toward Golden State, and 10.3 percent of all championship-related betting tickets had the Warriors winning.
In sharp contrast, the Kings entered the playoffs with +5000 odds to win it all, and only one percent of the handle and two percent of tickets had Sacramento actually lighting the beam after the NBA Finals. However, BetMGM notes that the Warriors-Kings series was the second-most popular first-round series among the betting community. Moreover, Sacramento actually wound up on the second-most tickets to win in the first round. The public must have loved the Kings' +215 series odds because Sacramento dominated 89 percent of the series tickets and 75 percent of the handle.
Of course, there is a long road ahead of Mike Brown's squad, but we venture to guess that Sac-town would have had much more NBA Finals betting support if the public knew how Fox, Sabonis, and company would open this series. The pace, confidence, and clutch shooting exhibited by the Kings made them look like perennial contenders, not a squad that just played its first two playoff games in nearly 17 years.
MORE WARRIORS-KINGS: Can the Warriors come back? | How Sacramento was built
Warriors' odds for Games 1 and 2 in Sacramento
Not surprisingly, the team that oddsmakers projected to win this opening-round series also had plenty of betting interest ahead of Games 1 and 2. As +1.5 underdogs before Game 1, the reigning champions garnered 65 percent of the spread money and 61 percent of ATS tickets over Sacramento. Golden State also appeared on 66 percent of moneyline bets and brought in 62 percent of the Game 1 handle.
Game 2 was even more fascinating. The Warriors opened as +1.5 underdogs, which the betting public immediately smashed — so much so that Golden State flipped the script and wound up -1.5 favorites on game day. By the opening tip, 83 percent of tickets and a whopping 91 percent of the handle were on the Warriors. The defending champs also generated 82 percent of moneyline bets and 90 percent of the overall moneyline handle.
But the Kings got the job done, with Fox looking as clutch as ever in the biggest moments and Draymond Green helping matters immensely when he stomped on Domantas Sabonis after the big man grabbed his feet from the floor.
MORE: Will Draymond be suspended?
Warriors' sharp betting numbers for Game 2
Our friends at BetQL regularly distribute the sharp betting numbers for every game big or small, so, of course, they had the numbers for Game 2 of arguably the best series in the playoffs so far. According to them, 84 percent of Game 2 sharp money was on the Warriors' spread and 88 percent of sharp action was on Golden State's moneyline.
To BetQL's credit, their model projected Sacramento +2 as the best bet of Game 2, listing the home underdogs with a three-star confidence rating.
Warriors-Kings betting advice for Game 3
We don't exactly know how Green's discipline will be handled, but with Sabonis reportedly getting injured by the step/stomp (whatever you want to call that nonsense), followed by Green taunting the Golden 1 Center fans, we would be amazed if he didn't get at least a one-game suspension.
Still, we think the Warriors can rally to win Game 3. There were points late in Game 2 without Green that it looked like Curry and Klay Thompson would splash their ways to a late jaw-dropping "W." We expect to see a lot more shooting from both Splash Brothers and a lot more intensity from end to end and from start to finish from Kerr's reigning champs. Sacramento dictated the pace and out-hustled the Warriors in the first two games, and we don't see either of those things happening a third consecutive game, especially with Game 3 at Chase Center where the Dubs went 33-8 this season.
That said, we can't spring for the atrocious value we'd be getting with the Warriors' -300 moneyline, and we can't possibly trust Golden State's opening odds of -7.5. Considering the Dubs will very likely be without Green, we would either buy some points to shave them down to -3.5 (at -165) or buy Sacramento two points to make it Kings +9.5 at -150.
Sacramento just taught the NBA universe that it can beat the defending champions straight up, not once but twice. This seems like a bad time to suddenly expect the Kings to lose by eight points to that same squad, potentially without its best defender.
