The Los Angeles Clippers are the fourth-best team in a Western Conference with two potentially historically great teams. If Steve Ballmer, in his second season as owner, is happy with that level of success, their current core should be able to continue it for at least a few more seasons. If he wants more, the next six weeks are the best time to make a bold move.
The Clippers popped up at the wrong time. The Warriors, Spurs and Thunder are all excellent teams that should age better because of younger stars and better salary cap flexibility in coming years. Those teams, along with the insurgent Rockets last season and the grinding Grizzlies in years past, have bested the Clippers, but this team has been very good for five seasons. Coach and president Doc Rivers and his front office did little wrong to get outpaced. Yet they were.
MORE: NBA's 15 most overpaid players | Paul explains his latest shoes
Power forward Blake Griffin will be 27 and center DeAndre Jordan 28 to start next season — in their expected primes, though perhaps removed from their highest peaks because their games hinge on athleticism. Point guard Chris Paul will be 31.
NBA players age better now than in the past, thanks to medical and equipment advances as well as league-wide shifts, but smaller guards still tend to hit the wall earlier than others. Last season, 41 players had a Player Efficiency Rating of 20 or higher, including Paul, Griffin and Jordan. Only five players 6-2 or shorter have posted even one 20-plus PER season (minimum 1,000 minutes) after the age of 30: Allen Iverson, Tim Hardaway, Lenny Wilkens, Jerry West (four times) and John Stockton (ten times). Greats such as Bob Cousy, Isiah Thomas, Tiny Archibald, Mark Price and Kevin Johnson never hit that mark after 30 despite doing so three or more times in their 20s. While Paul makes sense as the next player to follow Stockton’s successful career in his thirties, history makes that a precarious bet.
Beyond that concern, Paul has the ability to become a free agent in 2017, and the Clippers would not have any control over where he goes beyond offering slightly larger raises and probably a fifth season (which he would play at 36 years old). If Paul elects to go elsewhere, there is nothing Los Angeles can do to retain him, as was the case last summer with Jordan. That gives Paul leverage to squeeze out extra years or dollars for seasons past his prime. He likely will command a maximum contract, and that will come into effect under a new NBA collective bargaining agreement for which Paul will lead negotiations. Many expect the National Basketball Players Association to push for larger maximum contracts, a possibility that would benefit NBPA president Paul and vice president LeBron James as much as anyone.
The Clippers' situation complicated by Griffin. He also can be a free agent in 2017, meaning they potentially could be giving out two maximum contracts worth even more than currently allowed in one offseason. That leaves them little room for improvement as their stars age. But if Griffin is upset at a Paul trade, he could decide to leave as well.
Moving Paul before the 2016 trade deadline would help secure a strong return because the acquiring team gets at least a season and a half of CP3. For some teams, even 16 months of Chris Paul would be enough to meaningfully change a franchise, and some should be willing to give up substantial assets for the opportunity.
MORE: The best active NBA player wearing every number
If the Clippers chose to pursue that option, the biggest factor would be what they want in return. They could prefer a single high-end talent like the Timberwolves getting Andrew Wiggins for Kevin Love or combination of assets more like what the Nuggets received for Carmelo Anthony. A move now also could clear enough cap space for this offseason to make the Clippers players the Kevin Durant sweepstakes, without getting the Thunder’s permission via sign-and-trade.
There are so many logical potential landing places, but the most interesting primarily are in the Eastern Conference. The Celtics have Brooklyn’s unprotected first round pick this season and a bevy of talented young players, Cleveland has LeBron James and a potentially narrow window for a title and Philadelphia arguably has more movable assets than any other franchise. When it comes to moving a current All-Star and future Hall of Famer near his prime, though, the larger question is not who wants him, but, who would offer enough?
The most intriguing Paul suitor plays in the same building. The Lakers nearly acquired the superstar point guard four years ago — the NBA was in control of the New Orleans Hornets, backed out of the agreed-upon deal and sent him to the Clippers instead — and make sense as a team who could expect to re-sign him in 2017 given his ties to the area. With Kobe Bryant’s contract coming off the books, the Lakers also have so much 2016 cap space that using some of it on Paul would not prevent them from signing a another maximum contract player. The right deal could make both Los Angeles teams big players in free agency in 2016 and 2017. And they would have enough talent to make free agents interested.
Trading Paul would change the Clippers in a way that could make it a great time to sell high on other players who benefit from his presence, specifically Jordan and J.J. Redick. The front office would be wise to listen to offers but only move other players if and when bowled over by a proposal. Both Redick (who is a year older than Paul but has a skill set that should age well) and Jordan should be good enough long enough to be a part of the next great Clipper team.
If the Clippers are satisfied with playoff appearances and a series win or two every season, they can stick with the status quo for another few years. But now would be the time to make a bold move in an attempt to take a place as a true title contender in the future.