While neither Chris Bosh nor the Heat would like to see it come to an end this way, a small, rarely used portion of the NBA’s collective bargaining agreement could change Miami’s future if that worst-case scenario comes to pass.
Both of Bosh’s past two seasons ended in February because of issues with deep vein thrombosis, when a blood clot forms in a vein, often in the legs. His 2015 issue with the condition was more serious because it traveled through his bloodstream before ending up in his lung. Fortunately, his 2016 recurrence was smaller and caught earlier, but he still missed the remainder of the season.
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Under his contract signed in 2014 after LeBron James opted to leave the Heat, Bosh will make approximately $23.7 million this season, $25.3 million in 2017-18 and $26.8 million in 2018-19, per Basketball Insiders. He has been worth that kind of money when healthy; Bosh has a streak of 11 consecutive seasons as an All-Star and has averaged 20.0 points and 7.2 rebounds a game over the past two seasons, all while being sidelined for the entire second half both years.
Now the Heat must deal with the possibility that he cannot return to the court. One complicating factor is that Bosh reportedly pushed to play last season, only to be rejected by team doctors. Another is how the Heat’s future salary cap might shake out if Bosh cannot return.
The current CBA has procedures in place for what occurs when a player could be dealing with a potentially career-ending injury or illness. Here’s the text of Article VII, Section 4(h)(2):
While there are details of Bosh’s ailment that are not fully known, it appears the second path would be more likely. The concept of “medically unacceptable risk” looms large because that rationale played a significant part in Bosh sitting out the final 30 games of the 2014-15 season and the final 43 games of the 2015-16 season (including Miami’s 14 playoff games).
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Let’s take a closer look at the factors involved in this decision.
Timing
The CBA specifies when teams can apply for the injury exclusion. In cases where the player played more than 10 games in that season, the team must wait one calendar year after his last game. If the player appeared in fewer than 10 games in that season, the team can apply on the latter of 60 days after his last game or one year after his final game the previous season.
In Bosh’s case, that means the earliest the Heat could apply would be Feb. 9, 2017, one year after his final game in the 2015-16 season. If he plays more than 10 games in the 2016-17 season, that timeline gets pushed back into next season. The twist here is that the CBA likely will be renegotiated by that point, and an influential player such as Bosh could draw attention to the rule and lead to a change.
Rules of exclusion
If the injury or illness is determined to be career-ending, the player’s salary gets excluded from the team’s salary. That means the team still has to pay him, but that salary does not count on their books for the purpose of the salary cap or the luxury tax, similar to if he was waived using the amnesty provision.
The injury exclusion includes unusual provisions that make it more fascinating and more perilous for the Heat. First, the Heat must waive Bosh before applying for the exclusion, meaning they have to be sure that is the next step and presumably do so with the belief he will never play again for anyone. That structure means that if the physician determines that the injury is not career-ending, Bosh’s remaining salary stays on the books for the Heat. That would mean more than $52 million in immovable salary for the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons, dramatically curtailing Miami’s ability to bring in free agents.
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One additional wrinkle that could be relevant in this specific case is that if a team uses the career-ending injury exclusion on a player, it is not allowed to bring back that player ever again. In Bosh’s case, that restriction adds an extra level of weight to the personal dynamics in the situation, since he played an integral part in two championships.
Long-term gains
In terms of Miami’s balance sheets, even the earliest possible successful application would not make a huge impact this season. Bosh’s salary would come off the books immediately, but the Heat are not dealing with the luxury tax this year, and the 2016-17 cap space created would come at a time where it does not provide much value on a barren free agent market. It could open up some short-term salary dump possibilities before the trade deadline, which could help the Heat shore up their depleted draft pick reserves since they owe two first round picks and four second rounders between now and 2021.
However, an injury exclusion would have a major impact in summer 2017. Using the $102 million salary cap estimate, the Heat would have $16-22 million in cap space next summer, not even enough for a single max contract. Without Bosh’s $25.3 million, that skyrockets to between $41-47 million even with lucrative contracts for Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic. Next summer may also be Miami’s best shot at a star in free agency because Tyler Johnson’s contract takes a $13.4 million jump in 2018-19.
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As such, if the horrible situation of Bosh playing carrying a medically unacceptable risk comes to pass, the Heat would be wise to move quickly to give themselves the best chance of solidifying their future. Hopefully Bosh returns and finishes out his contract and Hall of Fame-bound career, but the CBA could provide the roadmap of a possibility all sides have to consider at this point.