The Bulls must move forward this summer. Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah are free agents, and Derrick Rose enters the final year of his massive contract.
Chicago could return a similar group, but Fred Hoiberg’s first season as coach brought to attention the chemistry issues with the younger Bulls core and the group that led the 2011 Eastern Conference finals run. The Bulls may or may not make the playoffs, but the greater question is the future, specifically their place in the potentially massive 2017 free agency landscape.
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Let’s take a look at their free agents, salary cap space and assets for this summer before breaking down what needs to be done.
Potential free agents: Pau Gasol ($7.8 million player option), Joakim Noah (unrestricted), Aaron Brooks (unrestricted), E’Twaun Moore (unrestricted), Cristiano Felicio (non-guaranteed) and Cameron Bairstow (non-guaranteed).
Likely cap space: $13 million.
Realistic maximum cap space (using $92 million estimate): $23.4 million.
2016 NBA Draft assets: Own first and less favorable of their own and Portland’s second. They also get Sacramento’s first if it does not end up in the top ten.
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Gasol made the All-Star team in both of his seasons with the Bulls, and he already was on a below-market value contract. He likely will decline that player option and join Noah on the free agency market.
The Bulls could bring back either big man, but neither lines up particularly well with the younger group they have built the last few seasons. Jimmy Butler is the 26-year-old star this team needs to build around, so a 36-year-old Gasol who would prefer a longer contract does not make a ton of sense unless it is at a discount. Noah’s health problems and poor shooting make him less desirable as a long-term fit, as well, and his benching this season before a season-ending injury may make him reticent to return anyway.
Gasol and Noah’s free agency should force the front office, led by Gar Forman and John Paxson, to evaluate its collection of returning big men. Taj Gibson, Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis all have the ability to contribute to a successful team but could struggle as three key parts of the same frontcourt rotation. Adding a bigger center to the rotation is one option, but the Bulls also could trade one of that trio’s team-friendly deals to open up space for a new starter, either in free agency or via the trade.
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The Rose issue returns, too. The franchise has avoided bringing in competition for Rose at point guard despite his frequent injuries, perhaps hoping that he would regain his 2010-11 NBA MVP form or not wanting to double up spending while paying Rose a maximum contract. Devoting some cap space to a point guard who could complement or even replace Rose would be a bold but helpful step, particularly since his absences hurt the team’s competitiveness without strong backups.
Rose’s impending free agency also makes him movable. If the Bulls can find a team looking for a point guard rental or a cap space plug before 2017 free agency hits, they may be able to get a reasonable return in an offseason or midseason trade. That has never been the ideal option with Rose; he is a hometown, homegrown fan favorite, and much of the roster was built around him. The uncertain future beyond next season makes trading him viable in a way it never has been before.
Like so many other teams, Chicago’s plans likely will end up changing with the decisions of key free agents. Adding a game-changer would functionally end the major machinations of their summer while missing out could make the Bulls desirable suitors for lower level but still useful talents.
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The Bulls also must consider the specter of 2017 when making their big decisions. At present, Chicago’s ledger is remarkably clean for that summer, with Rose’s massive salary coming off the books along with Gibson’s. Avoiding long-term spending could allow the Bulls to have two max slots that summer while retaining Butler, Mirotic, McDermott, Portis and their first round picks, which could make them a desirable destination in a stronger free agent class. The post-Michael Jordan Bulls rarely have landed major free agents, but they may have more to offer in 2017 than ever before.
Chicago’s off-season boils down to three attributes: vision, judgment and patience. The front office has the potential to lay the groundwork for some truly great Bulls teams down the road but fearing uncertainty or near-term disappointment could lead them to a less positive outcome.