The Hornets will start the summer with as many unrestricted free agents as players under contract. Whether that is a positive or negative depends on perspective and what those free agents choose to do.
The players Charlotte does have under contract are young and reasonably paid. A successful summer could set the table for a nice stretch for a franchise coming off a successful season, while a flawed offseason could set the Hornets back quite a bit.
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Let’s take a look at their free agents, salary cap space and assets for this summer before breaking down what needs to be done.
Potential free agents: Nicolas Batum (unrestricted), Courtney Lee (unrestricted), Jeremy Lin (opted out of $2.2 million contract), Marvin Williams (unrestricted), Al Jefferson (unrestricted), Troy Daniels (restricted), Tyler Hansbrough (unrestricted), Aaron Harrison (non-guaranteed) and Jorge Gutierrez (restricted).
Likely cap space: $22.4 million.
Realistic maximum cap space (using $92 million estimate): $42.2 million.
2016 NBA Draft assets: No. 22. Their second rounder is owed to the Nuggets.
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Keeping Nicolas Batum is Charlotte’s top priority. The Hornets thrived when Batum was on the court, and he unleashed the best of returning star point guard Kemba Walker. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, the other franchise cornerstone, missed so much of the year that he and Batum only played 161 minutes together, but the small sample generated optimism.
At 27, the French swingman’s next contract will cover the remainder of his prime, and he likely will have multiple suitors offering maximum contracts. He also loved playing in Charlotte and for coach Steve Clifford enough to make very clear that he hopes to return. If Charlotte is willing to add on a fifth season (which could be worth an eye-popping $33.7 million in 2020-21), it would be awfully hard to turn down.
Beyond Batum, the Hornets have difference-makers all over the court hitting free agency. Al Jefferson and Marvin Williams have been frontcourt contributors the last few seasons, while Jeremy Lin was an absolute steal for a season at the bi-annual exception. On top of them, deadline addition Courtney Lee is a rare 3-and-D wing who actually does both well and would be a nice fallback if Batum heads elsewhere. Restricted free agent Troy Daniels is a shooter good enough to keep making NBA rosters, and the Hornets’ right to match allows them to wait out the market before making a decision on him.
Clifford made plain that he would love to bring back a very similar roster for next season, plus a healthy Kidd-Gilchrist, to give a team that surprisingly won 48 games another chance to win a playoff series. The complicating factor is that committing long term to 31-year-old Jefferson, 30-year-old Lee, soon-to-be-30-year-old Williams and 27-year-olds Batum and Lin could lead to trouble down the line. Moreover, those players are expected to want larger contracts now.
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It is hard to talk about what the Hornets could do with their cap space because the amount is so variable. They only have about $47 million committed to players under contract and their 2016 first round pick, but holds for their free agents push them over the cap line to start the offseason. Even if they retain Batum (keeping his lower cap hold until he signs) and lose everyone else, that space dwindles to a little less than $22 million.
That amount will need to be enough to fill out their roster. Williams is the biggest quandary; because the Hornets only have his early Bird rights, the most they can pay him while over the cap is $12.25 million for next season. That looks to be on the very low end of Williams’ expected salary, so it could require a long-term deal to make it work. The Hornets also simply could decide Williams is enough and use their cap space to keep him; they would only gain about $3 million total by using Williams’ rights, anyway.
One potential outcome for the Hornets would be to bring back everyone but Jeremy Lin — who may be searching for a starting job anyway and whose Bird rights the Hornets lack entirely — and use the mid-level exception on a replacement point guard but that could be a poor use of resources. Charlotte needed a quality second PG last season and Lin’s ability to play next to Kemba Walker provided even more value. They could also devote resources to a rim-protecting center to give them the potential for an elite defense.
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The Hornets also have the opportunity to negotiate an extension with Cody Zeller. As a high draft pick, Zeller’s situation parallels Kidd-Gilchrist last year in one way: Both had large cap holds that created the space to extend without hurting the franchise’s flexibility for that offseason. It will be hard to settle on a number — Zeller has yet to prove whether he has a long-term role as a starting center, but both sides believe he can be one — but that cap hold provides some cover to make it happen.
With reasonable contracts on their books and a successful team on the court, Charlotte has the opportunity to secure a pretty bright future. Much depends on whom the Hornets retain and whether they can make good use of whatever cap space remains.