Included in this betting preview:
- Best bet against the spread
- Top over/under bet
- Highest-value player prop
- Full odds board for the day
- Updated NBA Playoffs bracket
The 2024 NBA Playoffs have reached the penultimate round, and the Celtics host the Pacers to kick off the Eastern Conference Finals at TD Garden tonight (8 p.m. ET, ESPN, Sling).
The Celtics have mounted a gentleman sweep in each of their first two rounds to get here, with the No. 1 seed collectively outscoring the Heat and Cavaliers by an average of 108-97.
The Pacers, meanwhile, have scratched and clawed to get to this point. They needed six games to beat the Bucks, who were missing Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, and seven games to get past the injury-plagued Knicks.
MORE CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING:
Can Indiana knock off the Celtics? | Do the Wolves have an answer for Luka Doncic?
Indiana has gone 6-0 at home but just 2-5 on the road this postseason. Now they face a Boston team that has gone 41-6 at TD Garden since the start of the 2023-24 season. So, is this series over before it begins? Should you smash the Celtics against the spread every game?
Don't even think about it. Among all postseason games played by the four teams still standing, underdogs have gone 24-22. You can't just blindly bet the favorites against the spread. Write it on the chalkboard like Bart Simpson if you must.
It's all about value! So, let's get to the top BetMGM value bets for Game 1 of the Celtics vs. Pacers series, including the best spread, over/under, and player prop wagers.
Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top ATS pick
Celtics -9.5 vs. Pacers (-115)
Boston seemingly always has at least one breakdown game every NBA playoff series. This postseason, it has been Game 2 of every series that has proved itself a thorn in the Celtics' side. With a significant rest advantage and plenty of time for Joe Mazzulla and his solid coaching staff to prep for the Pacers, bet on the home team getting this one done tonight.
Boston has gone 41-6 at home this season, and 4-2 ATS at home this postseason. The Celts' margin of victory over their last two Game 1s: +20 and +25. The Pacers, meanwhile, have gone just 2-5 on the road during this playoff run.
Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and the Celtics know they can't sleep on this Indy team — Rick Carlisle's squad won two games over Boston during the regular season. The Pacers went 0-3 at TD Garden, though, and they'll start this series down 1-0 this evening.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Celtics 116, Pacers 104 — Boston wins (-450) and covers the -9.5 spread (-115), while the final score finishes just UNDER the projected total of 221.5 (-105).
BUY NOW: Cheapest tickets to see the Celtics in the NBA Playoffs
Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top over/under bet
First-half total UNDER 113.5 (-115)
Quite simply, this feels like too many points. Sure, these are the two highest-scoring teams in the NBA. Sure, they also lead the NBA in first-half scoring, combining to average 124 points at intermission. But this is the playoffs, man! Scoring is down considerably because defense is up and the refs have been far less liberal with their whistles.
Indy is also probably a bit tired, and facing a Boston team that's far superior to a Knicks squad that was missing OG Anunoby, Julius Randle and Mitch Robinson. And the Celts still don't have Kristaps Porzingis (calf), so that's another potential factor in scoring being down in this one.
The Celtics were the best defense in the East all season, and the Pacers' defense combined with a historic shooting performance in Game 7 of the semis are the reason they advanced. This won't be a run-and-gun game like these squads engaged in during the regular season, much to the chagrin of Tyrese Haliburton and Rick Carlisle. Look for Boston to slow it down, force Indy to play its game, and control the rhythm and tempo.
HALFTIME SCORE PREDICTION: Celtics 57, Pacers 52 — Boston wins the half (-350) but Indiana covers the +6.5 spread (-115), while the final score finishes well UNDER the projected total of 113.5 (-115).
Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top player prop bets
Jayson Tatum points: OVER 29.5 (-110)
It's hard not to grimace recommending a Jayson Tatum OVER in the postseason (sometimes it seems like Jay's correct in the commercial that he claims "Playoff Tatum is not a thing"). However, JT got it going in Game 5 of the Celtics-Cavs series, logging 25 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists in a game that he could have easily scored 30-plus in if needed.
Tatum also bludgeoned the Pacers every time he faced them this season, scoring 30-plus in all four of the head-to-head contests he was active for and maxing out at 38 one game. The one game in which he didn't play against Indy this season, the Celtics lost.
Now Boston needs to get off to a strong start against a young, confident Indy team that only seemed to get better since acquiring Pascal Siakam — and Tatum needs a strong showing, to prove he's not the Paul George, Russell Westbrook, or Devin Booker of the East.
With his legacy on the line after a couple stumbling series to start the postseason, look for Boston's superstar to start strong out of the gates and cruise up the futures odds for Eastern Conference Finals MVP (aka the Larry Bird Trophy, which he won two years ago). The OVER might cash by the 6:00 mark of the fourth quarter.
Jaylen Brown points: OVER 24.5 (-120)
Brown averaged 28.4 points per game against Indiana this season, and he has arguably been the Celtics' best player over the past two and a half postseasons. JB is too strong for Tyrese Haliburton to guard and too quick for Pascal Siakam.
And if you're thinking Aaron Nesmith is the answer after the former Celtic locked up Knicks star Jalen Brunson in the semis, think again — Tatum and Brown hit 26 of the combined 48 shots they took while guarded by Nesmith this season. As Shaq would say, barbecue chicken alert! Both Jays should light it up tonight in front of their home crowd.
NBA playoff bets and spreads tonight: Full odds board
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
| Game | Time | Moneyline | Spread | O/U |
| Pacers @ Celtics | 8:00 pm (ESPN) | BOS -450; IND +340 | BOS -9.5 (-115) | 221.5 |
TUNE-IN: Stream the NBA Playoffs on Sling
NBA Playoffs updated bracket
