The Celtics enter this summer with an astonishing combination of assets. Quality players, great picks and maybe even ample salary cap space — depending on how they manage their offseason spending.
Team president Danny Ainge put his team in this position to make a splash. The Celtics have 17 NBA championships, so their goals are not simply to make the first round of the playoffs. This offseason should help; Boston will be well-positioned to negotiate blockbuster trade deals and build on a strong roster.
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Let’s take a look at their free agents, salary cap space and assets for this summer before breaking down what needs to be done.
Potential free agents: Amir Johnson (non-guaranteed 2016-17 salary), Jared Sullinger (restricted), Evan Turner (unrestricted), Tyler Zeller (restricted), Jonas Jerebko (non-guaranteed 2016-17 salary) and John Holland (non-guaranteed 2016-17 salary).
Likely cap space: $28.6 million
Realistic maximum cap space (using $92 million estimate): $51.4 million
2016 NBA Draft picks: Nos. 3 (from the Nets), 16 (from the Mavericks), 23, 31 (from the 76ers via the Heat), 35 (from the Timberwolves via the Suns), 45 (from the Grizzlies via the Mavericks), 51 (from the Heat) and 58 (from the Cavaliers).
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The Celtics face a different challenge than almost every other team because they have several players whose futures with the team depend on what opportunities present themselves in July. Both Johnson and Jerebko have non-guaranteed contracts at salaries that should look like bargains in the new salary cap climate, but both contracts reportedly become guaranteed July 3, which means the Celtics must decide before the start of open negotiations whether they want to keep one or both around at those prices. However, both contracts are good values for which other teams likely would be happy to trade.
Boston’s treasure trove of NBA Draft assets will also loom large in their summer. Beyond the bevy of 2016 picks, Boston owns two more Brooklyn first-round selections (one unprotected, one swap right) and an eventual first-rounder from Memphis. The Celtics’ picks for the 2016 NBA Draft lose value once the selections are made since a trade partner cannot make its own choice, so look for Boston to be active on the trade market leading up to draft night. High-profile players such as DeMarcus Cousins, Kevin Love and Carmelo Anthony are under contract for 2016-17, making them eligible to be traded before the league year turns over July 1.
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The Celtics also have high-profile restricted free agents in Sullinger and Zeller. Sullinger’s strong start to this season likely pushes his 2016-17 salary over his $5.7 million cap hold, meaning the Celtics should wait to re-sign him until after they have used their cap space. Zeller’s smaller contribution and higher draft position (and thus cap hold) makes it less likely the Celtics would do that and more likely that he will be allowed to leave unless he re-signs on a small deal.
Another under the radar component of the Celtics’ offseason that could shed some light on their long-term plan is Kelly Olynyk. The talented big man will be on the last year of his rookie contract next season, so this offseason will be the time for extension negotiations. His modest 2017-18 cap hold makes it tempting to wait until next season and use him like Sullinger, but that would turn out to be a mistake if he substantially increases his value during the season. Olynyk might be best advised to watch what happens this offseason in terms of one-year free agent contracts vs. longer deals, to gauge how many teams will be spending big in 2017. Boston’s own summer affects it as well, as the Celtics would be more willing to lock in a contract for Olynyk if they use some of their 2017 cap flexibility ahead of time.
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If Ainge wants to get involved in free agency, the Celtics can clear a serious amount of cap either by letting players walk or picking up Johnson’s or Jerebko’s 2016-17 guarantee and then moving them somewhere else. Considering the franchise’s high profile and recent success, expect to hear Boston come up in both free agent and trade discussions in early July.
Over the past few seasons, Ainge has built a potent team that also has the means to improve with draft picks, cap space and tradeable contracts. Bringing in truly elite players requires luck and timing, but Boston has put itself in the right position to make it happen.