Included in this betting preview:
- Best moneyline bet
- Top over/under bet
- Highest-value player prop
- Odds board for Game 2
- Updated NBA Playoffs bracket
The Celtics have taken a commanding 3-0 lead over the Mavericks in the 2024 NBA Finals, and they can take the brooms out and finish the sweep in Game 4 on Friday (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC, Sling). The betting odds overwhelmingly favor Boston to win the series, but Dallas remains a slight -1.5 favorite to win Game 4.
People are betting this game as if it's over before it even starts. As of Thursday morning, 84 percent of spread bets and a whopping 90 percent of moneyline were on the Celtics. But is this the lock of the playoffs? Or, could this be a bloody Friday for the betting masses?
MORE FINALS BETTING:
Updated series odds & best bets | Finals MVP prediction
Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving and the Mavs have very little chance of winning four straight games to claim the title. None of the 156 playoff teams that have gone down 3-0 has recovered with four straight victories. But it's worth noting that sweeps are pretty rare, too. Since 1947, only nine of the 77 NBA Finals have resulted in sweeps (11.7%).
So, it stands to reason that Dallas will give everything it has to win Game 4 and stay alive, at least long enough to send the series back to Boston. Can the Mavs get it done across four quarters? Or will Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Jrue Holiday close the door and bring Banner No. 18 to Boston?
Let's get back to our betting preview and prediction for Game 4 of the 2024 NBA Finals between the Celtics and Mavericks, including the highest-value moneyline, over/under, and player prop wagers from BetMGM.
Best NBA Finals Game 4 odds and picks: Top moneyline bet
Mavericks -115 vs. Celtics
It may sound crazy, but it's still difficult to envision the Celtics sweeping this series and winning the 2024 NBA Championship in enemy territory in Dallas. There remains that sneaking suspicion that this one stretches out one more game, with Boston winning in front of its fans and enjoying a champagne-soaked celebration in the TD Garden locker room.
The Celtics lost three of the four quarters in Game 3, often looking like they missed Kristaps Porzingis (foot). That third quarter was dominant — and at one point Boston went on a 73-45 run to go up 21 — but Dallas still caught up in the fourth quarter. If Luka Doncic doesn't get himself fouled out, the Mavs win that game.
Jason Kidd needs to do two things to help Dallas win Game 4:
- Help Doncic be a little better than God-awful defensively
- Take advantage of the Celtics bench
Boston has been able to take advantage of Luka's deficient defense, which he was able to hide during large stretches of the Mavs' Western Conference Finals vs. the Wolves. The Celts are also rolling out multiple bench players in meaningful minutes and getting away with it. If Dallas fixes either of those issues even a little bit, it should eke out one home win.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Mavs 107, Celtics 105 — Dallas wins (-115) and just barely covers the -1.5 spread (+100), and the game finishes just OVER the projected total of 211.5 (-110).
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Best NBA Finals Game 4 odds and picks: Top over/under bet
Celtics team total: UNDER 106.5 (-120)
No matter how you feel about this game, this bet seems like a good value. If Dallas comes out and punches Boston in the mouth, the Celtics likely finish UNDER 106.5. If the Celts continue to stifle the Mavs and win in commanding fashion once again, they will likely finish UNDER 106.5.
Look at the point total Joe Mazzulla's squad has posted each game of its past four games: 105 at the Pacers, 107 in Game 1 of the Finals, 105 in Game 2, and 106 in Game 3. If you want extra insurance, buy the Celtics' UNDER up to 107.5 at -145. But it feels like either result of Game 4 — a Celtics win or loss — will have them posting 106 or fewer points.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Mavs 107, Celtics 105 — Dallas wins (-115) and covers the -1.5 spread (+100), and the final score finishes just OVER the projected total of 211.5 (-110) but Boston finishes UNDER its 106.5 team total (-120).
Best NBA Finals Game 4 odds and picks: Top player prop bet
Kyrie Irving OVER 24.5 points (-110)
It's pretty obvious that Dallas needs Kyrie to go nuclear in order for the Mavs to remain alive in this series. Luka has been getting gassed by the second half, due in large part to Boston singling him out on defense with high screens and isolation takes. And nobody has stepped up outside of the Mavs' backcourt, save for P.J. Washington sprinkling in some scoring in the range of 13-17 points.
In case you didn't know about the legend of Kyrie in elimination games, here are his stats in the seven such postseason games he has played:
| Date | Game | Points | FG | 3PT |
| 6/13/16 | CLE @ GSW | 41 | 17-24 | 5-7 |
| 6/16/16 | CLE vs. GSW | 23 | 7-18 | 2-5 |
| 6/19/16 | CLE @ GSW | 26 | 10-23 | 2-5 |
| 6/9/17 | CLE vs. GSW | 40 | 15-27 | 7-12 |
| 6/12/17 | CLE @ GSW | 26 | 9-22 | 1-2 |
| 5/8/19 | BOS @ MIL | 15 | 6-21 | 1-7 |
| 4/25/22 | BKN vs. BOS | 20 | 6-13 | 2-3 |
The production obviously dipped in those last two games, but it's worth noting that Kyrie was never truly happy or a perfect fit for those Boston and Brooklyn teams. He has actually matured a lot since landing in Dallas and playing for Jason Kidd, and he did everything he could to help the Mavs dig out of their 21-point fourth-quarter deficit in Game 3.
Irving finished with 35 points on Wednesday, and Dallas very nearly pulled off the epic comeback win. Watch for him to be aggressive early and often again in Game 4, easily surpassing this 24.5-point projection.
NBA Finals Game 4 odds board
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
| Game | Time | Moneyline | Spread | O/U |
| Celtics @ Mavs | 8:30 pm (ABC) | DAL -115; BOS -105 | DAL -1.5 (+100) | 211.5 |
NBA Playoffs updated bracket
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