The Celtics and Heat have each won two games in the Eastern Conference Finals, but it wouldn't be accurate to describe this series as closely contested.
Through the first four games of the matchup, the average margin of victory has been 15.5 points. There have been massive swings not only within the games but also within certain halves. Case in point: Boston outscored Miami by 24 points in the first half of Monday's Game 4 on its way to a 102-82 victory.
Will the trend of alternating wins and losses continue on Wednesday night?
Here's everything you need to know about Celtics vs. Heat, including updated odds, trends and predictions for Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
MORE: The latest news on Marcus Smart's injury
Celtics vs. Heat odds for Eastern Conference Finals Game 5
- Spread: Celtics -2
- Over/under: 204
- Moneyline: Heat +110, Celtics -130
(Betting odds per FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Celtics are slight favorites to defeat the Heat in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Finals. Boston is 4-2 ATS in its last six games.
Three betting trends to watch for Celtics vs. Heat
Does the Celtics' defense have the blueprint to stop the Heat?
In Game 4, the Heat shot 33.3 percent from the field. Their starting five combined to score just 18 points, only slightly more than Payton Pritchard scored by himself (14). That ugly offensive performance could be dismissed as an outlier, but the major concern for Miami is that Boston may have found a winning formula.
As ESPN's Zach Lowe noted, the Heat have scored 90.9 points per 100 possessions in the half court against the Celtics. (That's in the same range as lottery dwellers like the Pistons and Thunder.) When Boston doesn't turn the ball over and fuel Miami's transition attack, its defense is suffocating the Heat. The Celtics were comfortable going under screens and building a wall in front of the rim, daring the Heat to hit midrange jumpers.
Miami likely won't shoot that poorly again, but it still needs to create better scoring opportunities against a set defense.
What version of Jimmy Butler will we see?
Butler's production has fallen off a cliff since he left Miami.
- Game 1: 41 points, 12-19 FG, 17-18 FT
- Game 2: 29 points, 11-18 FG, 6-8 FT
- Game 3: 8 points, 3-8 FG, 2-2 FT (didn't play in the second half)
- Game 4: 6 points, 3-14 FG, 0-0 FT
The six-time All-Star has been dealing with right knee inflammation, and that helps explain why he hasn't looked like the same guy. If he is going to be on the floor, though, he must be more aggressive. The Heat can't win this series if Butler is a non-factor.
How will injuries impact Game 5?
Butler is far from the only player who isn't operating at 100 percent.
Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, P.J. Tucker and Gabe Vincent are all listed as questionable on the Heat's Game 5 injury report. As for the Celtics, Marcus Smart and Robert Williams III are considered questionable.
Availability may ultimately decide the outcome of Game 5 — and the series.
Celtics vs. Heat expert predictions
Against the spread
Celtics -2. If the current trend continues, Boston should fall to Miami in Game 5. However, the Celtics' Game 4 win may have been a turning point. They know how to defend the Heat, and they are capable of generating enough points as long as they don't commit silly turnovers.
Over-under
Over 204. The Celtics and Heat cleared 204 points in three of the first four games of the series. In Game 4, both teams failed to shoot better than 40 percent from the field. Even a slight improvement from Boston and Miami should mean an easy over.
Player prop
Jayson Tatum over 3.5 made 3-pointers. In his past two games, Tatum has launched 14 3-point attempts but made just two shots from beyond the arc. He experienced a similarly poor stretch against the Bucks in the second round before finding the bottom of the net in Games 6 and 7. The bet here is that Tatum breaks out of his slump.
