Celtics' chemistry, Lakers' defense and more: Eight things we got wrong about 2018-19 season

Mea culpa. I was wrong. We were wrong, collectively. Everyone was wrong. Let’s all say sorry, together.

This week marks the midpoint of the NBA’s year, and the small sample sizes of the first couple of months are now half-season chunks. That’s enough games to take a look back at some of our early projections and predictions and to see just how terribly wrong we were — me, you, the collective wisdom of NBA observers in general — about what would happen this year.

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1. The Celtics will get their chemistry issues figured out.

It was obvious heading into the season that Boston had an enviable situation: There were too many good players on hand. The problem was how to define roles for those players, especially after youngsters like Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum and Terry Rozier had such terrific showings in last year’s postseason. It’s tough to ask young guys to get back into line, but with returning stars Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward on hand, that’s what Boston coach Brad Stevens had to do.

Certainly, by this point of the season, the Celtics were expected to have their rotation issues figured out, and things would be running smoothly. They have won six of their last eight games, but they’re only fifth in the East, and the Celtics are still struggling to find just the right roles for the likes of Rozier, Brown and Hayward.

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Brown and Hayward are coming off the bench behind Marcus Morris and Marcus Smart. That makes some sense but, remember, they’re paying Hayward $31 million this year and are committed to him for two more years at $67 million. That’s not Sixth Man money.

Brown looked like a future All-Star at times last year. That’s all come undone. This season has been a mental grind for him, and he’s taken steps backward in just about every aspect of his game. He, at least, still figures to be part of Boston’s future. Rozier, a restricted free agent this summer, is likely to bolt for a starting job if the Celtics re-sign Irving to a hefty deal — or if he is not traded before then.

2. Free agency will motivate the Warriors.

It’s possible that this will be the last iteration of the Warriors team that has dominated the NBA since signing Kevin Durant in 2016. That’s because Durant will be a free agent this summer, as well as Klay Thompson and center DeMarcus Cousins, who signed a one-year deal with the team as he comes back from an Achilles tendon injury.

It would make sense, then, that the Warriors should be as motivated as ever to pound their way through this season, win a convincing championship and let things fall as they will in the summer.

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Not happening. Golden State has dealt with injuries to Stephen Curry and Draymond Green, and has been disjointed (at times, at least) on both ends because of them. Thompson has struggled by his standards, making only 35.6 percent from the 3-point line, and the defense ranks only 16th in efficiency (108.9). The Warriors were 11th last year, which appeared to be an anomaly: They had been first, sixth and second in the first three years of coach Steve Kerr’s tenure.

Throw in a one-game suspension of Green for his on-floor spat with Durant, and this has not been a smooth Warriors season. They’re likely to bounce back and win another title, but if the team does break up this summer, it’ll be going out on a note of weariness and aggravation rather than one of dominance.

3. The league-wide boom in the 3-point shot surely will hit a plateau.

Uh, no. Have a look at the chart below, which tracks the average number of 3-point shots a team takes per game in the NBA, and the percentage difference from the previous season.

The last time we had a plateau in 3-point attempts was a decade ago, when the number was 18.1 per game for back-to-back years, dipped to 18.0 in 2010-11 and has been climbing since. This year’s 31.1 3-pointers per game is up 7.2 percent from last year, which is in line with the typical jumps we have seen in 3-point attempts in recent seasons.

The league’s 3-point revolution is not going anywhere.

4. The Lakers can’t defend...

Most issues the Lakers have had to this point — overreliance on LeBron James, lack of cohesion among a mostly new roster, tough early schedule — could have been predicted before the season. But the performance of the team’s defense, expected to be shoddy, has been a very pleasant surprise.

Rather than being carried by their ability to score, the Lakers have been bolstered by their D, which allows 106.1 points per 100 possessions, eighth in overall efficiency. That’s up from 13th last season.

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Of course, a major change for the Lakers was the addition of Tyson Chandler, and we could not have known he’d wind up in LA before the season. Without Chandler, in their first 10 games, the Lakers were 23rd in defensive efficiency (111.6). Since then, they’re fourth (104.3).

5. ... Neither can the Nuggets.

It was easy, in his first three years with the Nuggets, to snicker at the notion of Mike Malone being a defense-first coach, as his reputation suggested. Denver was 25th in defensive efficiency in his first season, dropped to 29th in Year 2 and checked in at 23rd last year. Yes, a defensive genius there.

But the team changed its defensive approach this season, trying to put star center Nikola Jokic — a slow-footed defensive liability — into better position on pick-and-rolls, pulling him away from the basket and forcing penetrators to make earlier decisions, which would allow the rest of the Nuggets to scramble into good defensive positions.

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It’s worked. Denver is now a top-10 defensive team, ranking No. 9 and allowing 106.9 points per 100 possessions. Their young perimeter defenders have shown good closeout ability, and the Nuggets yield just 33.4 percent 3-point shooting, which ranks fourth in the NBA. They were 24th in points in the paint allowed last year, but they’re now at a respectable 17th. They were 23rd in fast-break points allowed last year, but they’re now seventh.

The Nuggets have a potent offense, ranked seventh in the NBA, averaging 111.9 points per 100 possessions. That’s not going anywhere. If they want to stay atop the West, they’ll need to keep playing top 10-level defense.

6. Things would not be so bad in post-LeBron Cleveland this time.  

Not everyone shared this opinion, but in this space, at least, the belief was that the Cavs had done well to set themselves up for life after LeBron James, certainly much better than when he left the first time, in 2010. They’d gotten hold of some pretty good youngsters — Rodney Hood, Larry Nance Jr., Jordan Clarkson — via trade, had some promising talent on the roster (Cedi Osman, Ante Zizic), would still have star forward Kevin Love and owned Brooklyn’s lottery pick.

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Alas, Love has been hurt, and the promising youngsters have mostly fallen flat. Instead, the Cavs are back where they were when they’d previously lost James, leading the way in the race for the No. 1 pick in the draft.

Last time, in 2011, Kyrie Irving was their post-LeBron prize. This year, it’s likely to be another Duke star, Zion Williamson or RJ Barrett. There is, at least, some hope.

7. The East has improved.

It hasn’t. After a couple of seasons in which it appeared the East was making progress in its two-decade quest to catch back up to the West, the bottom has fallen out this season. The East is just 88-119 against Western Conference teams this season, and only four East teams have winning records against the West.

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Worse, we are destined to return to the days of sub-.500 teams earning playoff spots in the East. As it stands, Miami would be the No. 6 seed with a sub-.500 record (19-20), and two East teams would be in the postseason despite losing marks. That has not happened since 2015.

There has been some momentum around the league to reformulate playoff seedings, rewarding the top 16 teams regardless of conference rather than dividing the spots by conference. The East’s nosedive will give that argument added fuel.

8. The Bucks can’t win until Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 3s.

Give coach Mike Budenholzer credit. He’s trying to get Antetokounmpo to be a better 3-point shooter, allowing him 2.4 attempts per game, a career high. He is making but 16.9 percent of them, though, down from last year’s 30.7 percent.

Yet the Bucks have the second-best record in the league, and Antetokounmpo, averaging 26.6 points on 58.3 percent shooting, is a top-three MVP contender.

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He’s done that by being more aggressive and efficient in his forays to the rim. The other Bucks have helped by attempting 38.9 3-pointers per game (second in the league), up from 24.7 last year (25th). That has given Antetokounmpo much more room to work with in the paint, and according to Basketball-Reference.com, he is taking 59.2 percent of his shots at the rim and making 78.5 percent of them, both career highs.

He has also nearly eliminated the midrange jumper — an emphasis under former coach Jason Kidd — from his repertoire. Last year, 2-pointers from 10 feet and out accounted for 27.4 percent of his field-goal attempts. This year, that’s down to just 12.7 percent.

Antetokounmpo still may not be much of a perimeter shooter, but it turns out, that was not what was holding the Bucks back.