Struggling on both sides of the floor to start the season, the 1-3 Cavaliers head to Denver to face the Nuggets, another 1-3 team. Both squads rank near the bottom of the NBA defensively – Cleveland is No. 23 in points allowed per game (101.5), while Denver is tied for 28th (105.5).
Offensively, there just hasn't been enough ball movement from the Cavaliers, as LeBron James and Co. enter Friday night's matchup (10:35 p.m. ET, ESPN) averaging a league-worst 16 assists per game.
Based on 10,000-plus simulations of the game, AccuScore has the Nuggets as 57 percent favorites to win outright. Denver is +170 on the money-line, odds that imply just a 37 percent chance to win. Based on AccuScore's forecast, the Nugs should be about -130 favorites.
Also, Denver has nearly a 68 percent chance of covering a +4.5 spread. The average score after 10,000-plus simulations is 107-106.
In terms of the total, there is a 59.2 percent chance the score goes OVER 207.5.
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Both the Nuggets and Cavs have fairly comparable probabilities at close (4 points or fewer) and big (10 points or more) wins – it's 13.6 percent vs. 10.9 percent for the close win and 25 percent vs. 20.8 percent for the big win, with Denver having the greater probability in each respective category.
AccuScore box score: One category in the simulated box score stands out: blocks. The Nuggets average 4 more blocks than the Cavs through the sims. Cleveland’s shooting percentage is 44 compared to Denver’s 48. Both sides finish with the same number of made field goals, but the Cavs have seven more misses. The box score indicates strong rim protection from Denver Friday night.
Projected leaders
LeBron James: 26 points, 7 rebounds, 7 assists, 4 turnovers
Kevin Love: 21 points, 11 rebounds, 2-5 3-pointers
Ty Lawson: 14 points, 6 assists, 2 steals
Arron Afflalo: 13 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal
Supporting trend: The Cavs have struggled on the road so far, averaging just under 99 points per game while giving up nearly 104. They've beaten Chicago on the road, but lost at Portland and Utah.
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