After a playoff berth and the addition of center Greg Monroe, the Bucks had high expectations for the 2015-16 season. While they disappointed in terms of wins and losses, that campaign set the table for another important offseason that pairs financial flexibility with worthwhile draft picks.
Drafting Thon Maker 10th overall gives them another tantalizing project while second-round selection Malcolm Brodgon could contribute as soon as this season. All that means the young Bucks’ single-season step backward should not cost this franchise its bright future.
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Let’s examine this year’s free agents before getting into one of the most straight-forward offseasons in the NBA.
Potential free agents: Jerryd Bayless (unrestricted), Miles Plumlee (restricted), Greivis Vasquez (unrestricted), OJ Mayo (unrestricted), Damien Inglis (non-guaranteed), Johnny O’Bryant (non-guaranteed) and Steve Novak (unrestricted).
Likely cap space: $18.9 million.
Realistic maximum cap space (using $94 million estimate): $27.9 million.
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While Bucks fans and management are likely discouraged by the team’s record this year, the franchise learned quite a bit about its existing talent. Giannis Antetokounmpo took over point guard duties in February, and the team scored 108.7 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor from there, which would have been third in the league over a full season. On top of that development, Jabari Parker looked more like a future starter towards the end of the season.
That clarification matters because the Bucks have the ability to add talent this summer. They have a fascinating group of free agents, and Mayo, Vasquez (whom they gave up a first round pick for less than a year ago), Bayless and Plumlee could be worthwhile parts of Milwaukee’s future at the right salaries, which is a big ask with $1 billion in cap space around the league.
One of their most interesting free agents is Plumlee, who has an inexpensive qualifying offer (about $3 million) but a more sizeable $5.3 million cap hold. Milwaukee may need to play it by ear depending on what uses they can find for their cap space.
The team has Early Bird rights on guard Jerryd Bayless, who fit in pretty well as the small guard playing off the ball next to Antetokounmpo. If they can get him to agree to a deal worth about $6 million or less in the first year, Milwaukee can keep his manageable $3.9 million hold on the books until they use their space and then add him using that exception.
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Milwaukee’s biggest challenge is likely figuring out what to do with last summer’s biggest signing. Monroe bucked history as a high-profile player choosing Milwaukee in unrestricted free agency but ended up not fitting in well with their core players. In a fascinating turn, Monroe elected to sign a two-year deal with a player option so he could be a free agent as soon as 2017. It is often bad form to trade someone who signed so recently, but the Bucks may be able to thread that needle by finding a team excited to start Monroe. Getting a small asset back would be great but opening up some minutes in the frontcourt rotation and potentially a serious amount of salary cap space (he will make about $17.4 million in 2016-17) could justify the move even with no return. One challenge there is that cap space becomes less valuable once free agents decide and other teams would presumably turn to Monroe after they strike out on other options, so Milwaukee would get less in the immediate out of simply creating the space.
While the Bucks have cap space this summer and could have max space in 2017 if they are responsible between now and then, they are also staring down the barrel of more expensive salaries. Both Antetokounmpo and Michael Carter-Williams are eligible for extensions which would kick in after the upcoming season, but Milwaukee is unlikely to lock either of them up now for almost opposite reasons. Antetokounmpo will get a salary substantially larger than his $7.5 million cap hold in 2017, so waiting saves serious cap space. Meanwhile, the team still needs to figure out what it has in Carter-Williams. Antetokounmpo getting a big raise next summer and Parker right behind him in 2018 makes it harder to commit serious money this summer that will still be on the books then.
With a young core under team control, Milwaukee has pretty clear needs and a few assets at their disposal to attack those flaws. Adding a point guard who can play on and off the ball — like, for instance, Brandon Knight, whom they traded away in 2015 and is not on the market — would create a potent, dynamic starting lineup, and the Bucks’ cap space could be used on that. One free agent to watch is newly minted NBA champion Matthew Dellavedova. The restricted free agent has experience playing alongside a ball-dominant forward and can bury catch-and-shoot threes while defending zealously. An aggressive but not foolish offer to Dellavedova has the worst-case scenario of raising division rival Cleveland’s luxury tax bill if they match and a best-case scenario of adding a valued contributor who fits well for his prime years.
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Other targets for their guard need could include Tyler Johnson, Jeremy Lin and Jordan Clarkson. The Bucks appear to hope Maker can one day fill the role of a defensive ace rim protector, which is another team need despite the presence of John Henson on the bench, while Brogdon gives them a nice traditional shooting guard in the 3-and-D mold.
After some positive signs in a somewhat disappointing season, the Bucks again have the ability to fortify and improve their future through proactive moves and intelligent spending. A successful offseason could set Milwaukee up as an annual playoff hopeful with an even higher ceiling.