For over two years, millions of NBA fans have called Nikola Jokic overrated, claimed he didn't deserve his MVPs, and said the Nuggets were nothing more than a strong regular-season team. Now that Jokic's MVP streak has come to a close — and the retooled Nuggets have strengthened their supporting cast and got a little healthy — Denver has messed around and won six of its seven games so far in the 2023 NBA Playoffs.
Now the Nugs head into the Valley with a 2-0 series lead over Devin Booker, Kevin Durant and the Suns, looking to inflict the crucial 3-0 blow as Chris Paul looks on from the bench with his groin strain. Today we will discuss the odds and trends to know going into Game 3, and make our best bets, predictions, and favorite SuperDraft props for what should be a wild Friday night of Western Conference hoops.
For a team most believe to be primarily offensive-minded, Denver sure has played some good defense through two games. The Nuggets have held Phoenix to 13-of-54 from beyond the three-point arc (24%). They forced 16 Suns turnovers in Game 1 — 14 of which came via steals — and out-rebounded Denver by 11. They held Phoenix to 40 percent shooting in Game 2 (19.4% from deep) and won the points-in-the-paint battle 48-30. They have drawn 44 total Phoenix fouls and outscored Monty Williams' squad 222-194.
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Gone are the narratives that Jokic can't get it done in the postseason or Denver has too little depth to make a deep run. The two-time MVP was brilliant during Denver's gentleman's sweep of the bumbling Wolves in the first round, and he's been even better through two games against the Suns. His Game 2 stats read like a video game line in rookie mode: 39 points, 16 rebounds, five assists, two steals, one block, three turnovers. And just like he has over the past two regular seasons, he's making everyone around him better.
And everyone around him has been pretty damn good on their own, too. 'Playoff Jamal' Murray looks almost as strong as he did in the Bubble a few years back. Michael Porter Jr. is finally materializing as a three-and-D swingman. Aaron Gordon is playing the best team basketball of his career. Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have fit like gloves as pesky defenders with toughness on the drive and smooth strokes around the perimeter. Whereas the Suns seemed deep two years ago, the Nuggets are the ones with the embarrassment of riches now.
But can we really count out Booker, Durant, and a hungry Suns team with their backs against the ropes? Phoenix went 28-13 at home this season, and had gone 12-1 with Durant active before the start of this series. Surely this series can't be headed for a sweep — right?
Let's dive into the odds, uncover some betting trends, and make our best bets, predictions, and SuperDraft player prop selections for what should be a fun night of Western Conference hoops.
Suns vs. Nuggets odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Suns -4.5 (-105) | Nuggets +4.5 (-115)
- Total: OVER 225.5 (-105) | UNDER 225.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: Suns -190 | Nuggets +155
When you have x-factors as strong as Booker and KD, you don't get points at home — regardless of how badly you fared in the first two games of a postseason series. Even with the CP3 injury forcing the future Hall-of-Famer out of Game 2 (and possibly the series), the Suns wound up winning the third quarter 31-30 and ultimately only lost by 10 points on the road. Not bad for a squad that suffered such an awful twist of mid-game fate.
With a strong coach in Monty Williams, expect Phoenix to make the right adjustments to prepare for life without Paul over the next 2-5 games. We could see Cam Payne, a capable backup point guard with decent scoring chops, taking on an increased role. More than likely, though, we will see much more of Book and KD running the offense and dominating ball-handling duties.
That could be a blessing in disguise for Phoenix, which has looked undersized and overpowered against Denver. Just like the Celtics exerted their size advantages over the Eastern Conference last postseason, the Nuggets seem to be bullying opponents during their 6-1 playoff run. Murray had four inches on CP3. Porter Jr. towers over Torrey Craig and Josh Okogie. Gordon, MPJ, and Jokic all have wingspans over seven feet. Running Booker or KD at point takes a six-footer out of the lineup and gives Phoenix a better opportunity to match up with the size and strength of the Nuggets' main rotation.
Of course, the loss of CP3 also means we could be in for some of the best isolation hoops of the young playoffs. Booker and Durant are one-on-one maestros, and now they're back home with three-plus days of rest and pissed off at being down 0-2. Yeah, we're not betting against those two guys. Phoenix went 27-8 as a home favorite this season, and 6-1 at home with Durant active.
And as much as Denver has improved from last year to today, we mustn't forget the Nuggets' recent history of postseason road woes. They are 9-17 in playoff away games during the Jokic era — and just 3-10 if you trim the sample size to between September 18, 2020 and now. They dropped both road games to Phoenix in the 2021 Playoffs, all three contests against the Warriors at Chase Center last year, and even lost one of two at Target Center against the hapless Wolves in the first round of this postseason.
We've got Booker and Durant going HAM tonight, and DeAndre Ayton getting big and battling like he did in Game 1. The Nuggets will absolutely win this series — but if we know anything about Book and KD, it's that they won't go down without a fight.
Prediction: Suns 119, Nuggets 113. The Suns win and cover the spread (-4.5) while the game goes well OVER the total (225.5).
Best SuperDraft player prop bet for Suns vs. Nuggets: Kevin Durant OVER 29.5 points
Props courtesy of SuperDraft, the best destination for player prop parlay betting
I'm smashing both Durant and Booker's scoring OVERs (Book is at 31.5). Even if Ayton plays more assertive down low than he was in Game 2, the onus will still be on Phoenix's superstars to dominate beyond the arc, from midrange, and on penetration. Playoff wins are typically forged by the most talented players, and these are two of the eight best pure scorers in the NBA. Denver's defense has been great, but we've seen Malone's Nugs falter defensively in road playoff games more times than we can count. Simply put, if you're betting the Suns to win, you might as well bet KD and Book to go off as well.
