Happy New Year! As the NBA approaches the halfway point of the 2023-24 regular season, the playoff race will more than likely kick into overdrive from here on out. There has never been a better time to capitalize on NBA prop betting, which we will focus on today as we highlight the best SuperDraft bets from Tuesday evening's six-game slate.
Here's what's on the docket for Tuesday night: reigning MVP Joel Embiid and the 76ers tip things off against the Bulls in Philly (7:00 p.m. ET), followed by Jayson Tatum and the Eastern Conference-leading Celtics taking on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder in OKC (8:00).
Zion Williamson and the Pelicans host Mikal Bridges and the Nets (8:00), while Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs square off against Ja Morant and the Grizzlies in Memphis (8:00). Then Steph Curry's Warriors host Paolo Banchero's Magic, (10:00) and the Hornets and Kings close out the night in Sacramento (10:30).
Let's get to our picks and break down five of our favorite player props on SuperDraft for Tuesday night's six-game NBA slate. Remember: you don't necessarily have to combine all four picks together. You could make separate two-leg or three-leg parlays to increase your win probability, or you could attempt to hit it big if all five picks come through. Good luck, have fun, and cheers to a happy, healthy, and lucrative New Year for you and yours!
Best NBA Prop Bets Today: Top props for every game
Tobias Harris, F, 76ers vs. Bulls (7 p.m., NBA TV) — OVER 17.5 points
Joel Embiid has missed the past four games with an ankle sprain, but Nick Nurse and the Sixers took the reigning MVP off the injury report ahead of Philly's Tuesday night game versus the Bulls. Still, we can't even fathom betting either side of JoJo's points total of 34.5, which amazingly falls just below his per-game average of 35. Sure, he has hit 35-plus in seven of his past 10 games, but he also played 35-plus minutes in five of those 10 contests.
We don't expect Nurse to ride JoJo for longer than 27-28 minutes in his first game back since three days before Christmas, especially considering big minutes and high usage rates often lead to ankle re-aggravation. Thus, we expect Harris to step up and continue to be the quiet but effective third scorer for Philadelphia. The veteran swingman seems to be enjoying a career resurgence with James Harden out of the picture, and Tobi's past five games might be one of the better clusters of offensive play we've seen from him over the past five years.
During that five-game stretch, Harris has averaged 23.8 points per game and only dipped below 22 once. He has also shot the ball extremely well during this span — 48.9 percent from the floor, 40 percent from three-point land, and 91.6 percent from the free-throw stripe — and he has been racking up rebounding, assist, and defensive stats as well. Nurse can't possibly trim Harris's minutes down when he's this hot, especially with Philly sitting third in the East and JoJo nursing a tender ankle.
Harris has been underwhelming against Chicago so far this season, but he averaged 18.5 PPG across against the Bulls between 2020-21 and 2022-23. And it has been a while since Billy Donovan's squad has seen Tobi during a hot stretch like he's currently on. Smash the veteran forward's scoring OVER and get an early W to start the night.
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Jalen Williams, G/F, Thunder vs. Celtics (8 p.m.) — OVER 16.5 points
After coming out of the gates quietly this season and then dealing with some injury issues, JDub has really come on strong as of late. The second-year swingman averaged 18.8 points per game during the month of December, shooting 52.8 percent from the floor and 50 percent from beyond the three-point arc. He's taking on a larger role in OKC's offense, and his counting stats and efficiency have thrived in the process.
Boston has some of the best perimeter defenders in the league — hence the modest scoring line of 16.5 here — but we bet the majority of the Celtics' attention will be on Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tonight. SGA is OKC's MVP candidate (so many letters!), so stopping him will be the top priority of Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. Meanwhile, stud second-year big man Chet Holmgren — officially a rookie, and the Rookie of the Year frontrunner — will be commanding the attention of Kristaps Porzingis and Al Horford down low.
We like Williams' odds of cracking 20 tonight, as his confidence as an NBA scorer has never been higher. He's also averaging 19 points per home game as opposed to 16.6 PPG on the road, while the Celts allow 111.8 PPG on the road compared to 108.8 PPG at home. Slam the OVER on JDub.
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Jonas Valančiūnas, C, Pelicans vs. Nets (8 p.m.) — OVER 10 rebounds
Big V always seems to get up against strong opposing centers, so we like his chances of logging a double-double at home against Nic Claxton and the Nets tonight. Valančiūnas averaged 13.5 points and 11.5 rebounds in two games against Brooklyn last season, and he has double-doubles in seven of the Pelicans' past 10 games. This feels like a no-brainer in what should be one of the closer contests of the evening.
De'Aaron Fox, G, Kings vs. Hornets (10 p.m.) — OVER 28.5 points
You may have heard this already this season, but it bears repeating: the Hornets stink. They don't score or defend well, they can't rebound, and they have been lit up by countless ball-dominant perimeter players throughout the season. Fox loves going HAM on weak defenders — the Kings' recent three-game road trip saw him put up 43 points in Portland and 31 in Atlanta, and he dropped a 30-piece against Washington a couple weeks ago. He's scored 29 or more in in 13 of his past 19 games, so this seems like a modest projection.
Chris Paul, G, Warriors vs. Magic (10 p.m.) — OVER 9 assists
We have noticed a trend with the Warriors lately. Since just before Thanksgiving, the Warriors have gone 6-1 when Paul finishes with double-digit assists, 2-6 when he finishes with eight or fewer assists, and 1-2 when he fails to suit up. They don't need CP3 to score — they need him to get other players scoring! If Steve Kerr and the Warriors get Steph Curry open off-ball more, it will stretch the floor for Golden State and make things easier on Klay Thompson and the others. That won't happen without CP3 being the primary floor general, though. We expect the Dubs to get it done tonight and ride Paul's passing skills to their first victory in four games, closing out our night with a cherry on top of our betting sundae.
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