Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets look to carry momentum into Game 2 and take a commanding 2-0 lead over Jimmy Butler and the Heat this evening (8 p.m. ET, ABC). Denver rolled to a convincing 104-93 win on Thursday night at Ball Arena, where the West's top seed has won nine consecutive home playoff games.
By all accounts, the Nugs look every bit the favorite to win the franchise's first NBA championship, and they make for a difficult home squad to bet against. But plenty of value bets remain, including Jokic-related player props on SuperDraft and BetMGM.
The modern-day NBA stat king has been incredible all postseason, averaging a triple-double and becoming the first player since Jason Kidd to log a triple-dub in his NBA Finals debut. The 7-0, 280-pound Serbian point center just continues to shine under the brightest of basketball lights, leaving every fan of the sport slack-jawed.
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Perennial All-Defensive selection Bam Adebayo and the typically-sound D of the Heat have been utterly befuddled by Jokic, not just this season but for years now. Miami has dropped seven straight games to Denver, and now has a 1-10 record against Mike Malone's squad since January 2019. Can Joker and company continue their dominance over Erik Spoelstra's squad in Game 2?
If basketball fans want to bet on more big performances from Jokic, they can do so on SuperDraft and BetMGM, two of our favorite spots for over/under prop parlay betting. On SuperDraft, bettors can pick an over/under on two or more player props. If both hit, the bettor wins 3 times the amount wagered. The potential return increases each time another prop is added. Think of it as a "Same Game Parlay." More legs equal more risk, but also a chance at a larger payout.
Nikola Jokic player prop picks for Nuggets-Heat Game 2
SuperDraft — Jokic OVER 11.5 assists
Jokic has established himself as an offensive force on the interior, a smooth-stroking shooter, and a dominant rebounder. However, his continually-evolving brilliance as a passer has been what has really separated the perennial All-NBA center from the other great big men of the game. He sees the floor and reads opposing defenses better than most veteran head coaches, and the timing and accuracy of his passes remain effortlessly on point.
Sometimes it seems like Joker would be happier to record 20 dimes than he would be to score 40 points. He coasted through the majority of the first three quarters of Game 1 content to create open shots for others, setting the stage for more of the same from Denver's balanced offensive attack. The two-time MVP had six assists at the end of the first frame and 10 dimes by halftime. He finished with 14 assists to go with his casual 27 points and 10 boards.
Spoelstra and the Heat will presumably keep trying to make life difficult for Joker, who basically serves as the quarterback of the Nuggets' offense. But the more Miami blitzes, the more the Serbian will find the open man. We love this OVER for Jokic and think we have a chance to get the green checkmark by the start of the fourth quarter.
SuperDraft — UNDER 13 rebounds
Typically, this would be a smash OVER for Jokic, who has averaged the second-most rebounds per game this postseason. But we noticed something in Game 1 that intrigued us — Jokic would often put a body on primary Heat rebounder Adebayo, and another Nugget would sail in to grab the board.
We think it's not a coincidence, but rather a Mike Malone strategy. Try to neutralize Bam on the boards with Joker's 7-0, 280-pound frame, and let Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., or Aaron Gordon come down with the rebound and start the fast break.
Of course, Adebayo still ended up with 13 rebounds, tying MPJ for the game-high. But Jokic only finished the game with 10! If Denver continues to employ this strategy, the Western Conference Finals MVP won't even sniff 14 boards. We will absolutely fade the OVER here, and strongly recommend the UNDER.
BetMGM — Jokic to make his first field goal attempt (-185)
Jokic and the Nugs like to get off to a solid start, and the perennial MVP candidate loves to get boost his teammates' confidence early. If Joker takes a shot early on, it's going to be a high-percentage shot. More often than not — at least in the beginning of the game — that means he will be near the hoop and/or logging a put-back off an offensive rebound.
This may seem like a volatile prop to bet, but we love it for many reasons. Jokic has been shooting lights-out all postseason — and he historically owns Bam and the Heat — so we like our chances of getting an early cash on his first field goal attempt.
BetMGM — Jokic to win the tip (-145)
Jokic has more length, reach, and savvy than Adebayo, which all contribute to the Serbian center winning six of their past 10 opening tips. We're banking on him pushing his success rate to 63.6 percent this evening, with the Nuggets faithful cheering him on to start what should be a great Game 2.
