The 2023 NBA Finals have finally arrived, with the Nuggets and Heat scheduled to tip at 8:30 p.m. ET on Thursday (ABC). This championship match has been anxiously anticipated by hoops fans and seems almost destined to provide us with some statistical firsts.
The one player everybody will have their eyes on is two-time MVP and freshly minted Western Conference Finals MVP Nikola Jokic, who has become the stat king of the NBA. Today, we will dive into the best bets and top values among Joker's Game 1 player props, pinpointing where the odds seem to be in bettors' favor.
Anyone can take on the pulpy juice of Jokic at -350 to win Finals MVP, but that's a ton of risk for just a small reward. Bet $100 and you won't even walk away with a $30 profit if and when he wins the award. And what if Joker gets hurt, God forbid? You're far better off betting his game-to-game statistical props, which will be priced much more reasonably and yield far less volatility.
MORE GAME 1:
Betting preview | Best props | Exotic props
Without further ado, let's look into the best NBA Finals Game 1 Jokic bets on the player prop market, including over/under props from SuperDraft, BetMGM, and FanDuel. Good luck, have fun, and enjoy the game!
Best Nikola Jokic prop bets for 2023 NBA Finals Game 1
Discounted prop: Jokic OVER 22.5 points (SuperDraft)
Our friends at SuperDraft certainly know how to get the betting public's attention! They have been granting users free squares and discounts throughout the playoffs, making it far easier for bettors to string together multiple over/under hits and win some cash.
This one may read "discount," but it sure seems like a free square to us. Joker has averaged 29.9 points per game during this postseason, and he has scored 23 or more points in 12 consecutive games.
MORE: How SuperDraft works: Complete guide to playing DFS games & fantasy props
Jokic won't suddenly take his foot off the gas in the most important game of his life on a night in which he's coming off 10 days of rest. He also historically owns Bam Adebayo and the Heat offensively, with lifetime shooting splits of 55/44/82 against Miami. Joker might clear this prop by 8-10 points — take the money and run!
Just note that SuperDraft users can only bet one over/under per player when stringing together prop parlays. Typically, we would also be all over Jokic's OVER of 10 assists on SuperDraft — which yields much more value than his non-discounted 27.5 points prop — but the 22.5 points prop is an absolute no-brainer as one of our minimum two entries.
MORE NBA FINALS BETTING:
Series best bets | Series props | Series player props | MVP odds | ATS, O/U records
Best assist prop: Jokic OVER 9.5 assists (-150 on BetMGM)
Odds courtesy of BetMGM, an Authorized Gaming Operator of the NBA. Click HERE to sign up!
Anyone who knows Joker's game (even Mark Jackson and Lisa Salters, now) recognizes that his value and impact extend far beyond his per-game scoring contributions. He makes everyone in a Nuggets uniform better, and the more defensive attention he garners, the more assists he racks up.
Many don't realize that Jokic has been Denver's second-leading scorer in two out of the three playoff rounds. Jamal Murray led the Nugs in scoring in both the opening-round gentleman's sweep over Minnesota and the Western Conference Finals sweep of the Lakers.
We could easily see Jokic average 20 points and 15 assists this series, which would probably have even more offensive impact than if he averaged 30 points and 10 assists. He's averaging 42 points and 11.3 assists per game across Denver's three losses this postseason, but during the Nuggets' current six-game winning streak, he has averaged 28.6 points and racked up 12-plus assists in five of the six games.
Best bet amongst defensive props: Jokic OVER 1.5 steals + blocks (-190, BetMGM)
We're taking on a lot of juice here, but we love the probability of Jokic racking up at least two "stocks" tonight, something he has done in five of the past six games. All told, Joker averaged 3.2 stocks over those five games. Another thing casual fans don't realize about the two-time MVP is that he regularly ranks among the league's best in deflections, and deflections often turn into steals.
Jokic also has a 7-3 wingspan, so he has height, weight, and reach advantages over Adebayo. Even though the perennial All-NBA selection is not known for his defense — and regularly gets called a poor defender because of unfair comparisons to MVP rival Joel Embiid — he still racks up more blocks than the average defender. The most important thing about Joker is that he will always give maximum effort, which is about all we need to get to the OVER on this one.
Best value amongst stat combo props: Jokic to record a triple-double or Jokic OVER 23.5 assists + rebounds (both -105, BetMGM)
Both of these props seem like fantastic values at -105. Jokic is averaging a triple-double during the playoffs after finishing the regular season 0.1 assists per game shy of a season-long triple-dub average. Take a look at Jokic over the past four games:
| Game | Assists | Rebounds |
| Game 1 vs. Lakers | 15 | 21 |
| Game 2 vs. Lakers | 12 | 17 |
| Game 3 at Lakers | 8 | 6 |
| Game 4 at Lakers | 13 | 14 |
| WCF Averages (4 game) | 12 | 14.5 |
That's a 26.5 assists + rebounds average against LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals. Now Joker gets to match up with Bam, who he has largely owned over the past few years, and a lineup boasting either a banged-up Kevin Love or a 6-5 Caleb Martin at power forward. And Cody Zeller ain't saving this Heat squad from Jokic damage, people! You can't go wrong with either of these props. Smash 'em!
Best plus-odds prop: Jokic OVER 1.5 three-pointers (+150 on DraftKings)
We've seen Erik Spoelstra employ two different defensive strategies against the Heat over the past couple of years: (1) the zone, and (2) daring Joker to shoot from mid-range and three. The Heat would much prefer Jokic attempt multiple three-pointers rather than 20 two-pointers.
Don't let that give you the false sense that he can't shoot. Joker has hit multiple triples in three of Denver's past four games and five of the past seven. He can do it all, and tonight, we expect him to hit a ton of OVERs, including this one.
