With the first two 2023 NBA Finals games in the books, the Heat have stolen home-court advantage and evened the series 1-1. Denver will now look to reclaim momentum in South Beach by stealing one back in Miami. To achieve that goal, Michael Malone may need another superhuman performance from Nikola Jokic. Let's break down the best Jokic-related player props on both SuperDraft and BetMGM.
By inserting Kevin Love back into Miami's starting lineup in Game 2 after the big man had fallen out of the Heat rotation entirely the previous three games, Erik Spoelstra was able to put top perimeter defender Jimmy Butler on Jamal Murray. That essentially left Michael Porter Jr. as Denver's second scorer, a role MPJ clearly was not prepared to inherit. That meant that Jokic had to take 28 shots, finishing with a 40-burger but far less of an overall impact than he had in Game 1.
Your move, Coach Malone. The Nuggets might employ more high screen-and-rolls with Jokic and Murray, using the two-man game to open up the floor a bit. Maybe back-screens will open up more free shots at the rim. Perhaps Denver will attack the hoop early and often like in Game 1 when the Nugs rolled the Heat for a 20-6 first-quarter advantage in the paint. No matter the adjustments, we just know Jokic will hit the Kaseya Center floor like a man on a mission.
The Nuggets have won seven of their past eight meetings with Miami, and they have won every frame of this Finals except for the two fourth quarters. Denver has not been nearly as effective on the road as at home, but we have also seen the Heat drop two of their past three home playoff tilts. This one should be a classic of a Game 3, and we're excited to attack the Joker player prop market ahead of the opening tip.
If basketball fans want to bet on more big performances from Jokic, they can do so on SuperDraft and BetMGM, two of our favorite spots for over/under prop parlay betting. On SuperDraft, bettors can pick an over/under on two or more player props. If both hit, the bettor wins 3 times the amount wagered. The potential return increases each time another prop is added. Think of it as a "Same Game Parlay." More legs equal more risk, but also a chance at a larger payout.
Nikola Jokic player prop picks for Nuggets-Heat Game 3
Jokic OVER 10 assists (SuperDraft) or OVER 9.5 assists (-150 on BetMGM)
Jokic's Game 2 might have been the most impressive passing game from a dude with four assists in the history of the NBA. His four assists were brilliant, including an alley-oop and a touch-pass to a cutting Aaron Gordon after Joker already appeared committed to shooting. He's like a MasterClass of passing.
Denver needs Jokic to create for others even more than it needs him to score 40-plus points per game. He set the stage with six first-quarter assists in Game 1, getting everyone involved. By the end of the W, the Serbian superstar had 14 assists and was responsible for 58 total points between his scoring and passing. In Game 2, he was responsible for just 50 points despite scoring 14 more points than he did in the series opener.
As my esteemed colleague Jordan Greer pointed out, the Nuggets are 0-3 in Nikola Jokic's three highest-scoring games this postseason, 4-4 when he scores 30 or more points, and 9-0 when his point total is below 30. This doesn't mean that Denver doesn't need Joker's scoring — he absolutely needs to stay aggressive and keep shooting, especially when he draws mismatches — but it does mean that he needs to get his teammates more involved so the Nuggets have a clear No. 2 scorer.
Expect the perennial All-NBA selection to rack up the dimes again this evening. Denver's supporting cast — like Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope — can't possibly shoot as poorly as it did in Game 2. We like the Nuggets to bounce back in a major way, and Jokic's passing will play a big part.
Jokic UNDER 12 rebounds (SuperDraft) or UNDER 11.5 rebounds (+100 on BetMGM)
Typically, this would be a smash OVER for Jokic, who has averaged the second-most rebounds per game this postseason, but we noticed something in Games 1 and 2 that intrigued us — Jokic would often put a body on primary Heat rebounder Bam Adebayo and another Nugget would sail in to grab the board.
With a sample size of two games, this feels like less of a coincidence and more of a Michael Malone strategy. The objective: Try to neutralize Bam on the glass with Joker's 7-0, 280-pound frame, and let Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., or Aaron Gordon come down with the rebound and start the fast break.
Of course, Adebayo still has 22 boards in the series, but Jokic has just 21! If Denver continues to employ this strategy and Kevin Love continues starting for the Heat, chipping into the rebounding opportunities, then the Western Conference Finals MVP will continue to hover in the 10-rebound range. We will absolutely fade the OVER here and strongly recommend the UNDER.
Jokic UNDER 29 points (SuperDraft) and UNDER 28.5 points (-120 on BetMGM)
Whether Erik Spoelstra admits it, the Heat employed the strategy of allowing Jokic to go off and focusing on not letting any ancillary pieces around him explode. We expect Malone to draw up plays to get Murray, MPJ, and KCP going in Game 3 and move away from Jokic having to do it all as a go-to scorer.
The more Jokic needs to take over scoring duties, the less gas the two-time MVP will have in the tank defensively. Wednesday's game has the makings of a 25/15/10 game for the most dynamic overall player in the NBA.
Jokic UNDER 3.5 turnovers (+110 on BetMGM)
Jokic logged an uncharacteristic five turnovers in Game 2, largely because his teammates shot so poorly, forcing him to be more aggressive with the ball in his hands. As we are already expecting the Nuggets to ask less of Joker as a scorer, we also like his chances of bouncing back on the turnover front and drastically reducing his game-to-game turnover count.
Before Game 2, Jokic had recorded just seven turnovers over his past three games and only racked up three total TOs in one of those three. He has totaled three or fewer turnovers in nine of Denver's 17 postseason games so far, and he should tighten up enough in Game 3 to make it 10. We love the plus odds here, so we'll be smash-playing the UNDER.
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Jokic OVER 1.5 steals + blocks (-165 on BetMGM)
Jokic had zero steals and zero blocks in Game 2, mostly because he was putting all of his energy into the other end of the floor. Before Sunday, he had logged at least two "stocks" in two straight games and six of Denver's previous eight.
Jokic has height, strength, and reach in the post. He also regularly finishes among the league leaders in deflections, and he has surprised the NBA universe with his 14 blocks this postseason.
We're hitting the OVER here despite the juice, as we expect Joker to contribute in myriad ways in South Beach.
Jokic to log a triple-double (+120 on BetMGM)
Last but certainly not least, we have to include the triple-dub prop. As we have hinted at this entire column, we expect a dynamic all-around performance from Jokic after he failed to top four assists in Game 2 for the first time all postseason.
Joker is still averaging a triple-double in the playoffs, and we love his chances of bouncing back and grabbing his second triple-dub in three Finals games. If you can get +120 odds for Jokic to record a triple-double in a huge game, you kind of have to put at least a modest wager on it. Make the bet, cross your fingers, and enjoy what should be another unforgettable NBA Finals contest!
