As we inch closer to the opening tip of NBA Finals Game 3 between the Heat and Nuggets, experts and analysts continue to talk ad nauseam about the moneyline, spread, and over/under. And while SN Bets' Game 3 betting preview offers plenty of advice on those fronts, it's important to note that a ton of value lies deeper within each game. Today we will highlight the best exotic and non-traditional bets from tonight's Heat-Nuggets clash, as well as our biggest fades from the player prop market.
If you only listen to mainstream media's championship coverage or get betting tips that barely scratch the surface of sportsbooks' offerings, chances are you have been limiting your ability to significantly build up your bankroll. Hammering the spread each game and smashing the OVER on the biggest stars? Exclusively playing the promo bets and boosts offered by your book? You're spending your money exactly how they hope you would.
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Game 3 betting preview, best bets | Game 3 SuperDraft props | NBA Finals MVP odds, best bets
Go the untraditional route! Find plus odds on a role player the oddsmakers didn't spend a ton of time handicapping. Pinpoint an exotic prop that your betting trend research suggests will be a great chance to make a profit. Play some head-to-head props, picking certain players to outperform others based on matchups and stats from the first two games of the series. By limiting your betting volatility, you greatly increase your potential profit margins.
Let's get right into our favorite exotic and non-traditional bets as well as our biggest player prop fades for Game 3 of the NBA Finals between the Heat and Nuggets. Let's have some fun and make some cash!
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Best exotic and non-traditional props for NBA Finals Game 3
First quarter total: UNDER 55.5 points (-120 on BetMGM)
The overwhelming majority of over/under bettors target the full-game total, with many not realizing that you can bet on the first half and first quarter totals of each game as well. Well, each of the first two games of the 2023 NBA Finals have featured 49-point first quarters, and the Nuggets tend to perform far worse on the road. Translation: UNDER 55.5 is a smash-play tonight.
The second-best NBA squad this season in terms of points allowed per game, Miami impressively held the Celtics to 23 or fewer first-quarter points in two of its three Eastern Conference Finals home games. We also expect a motivated Nuggets defense after Denver coach Michael Malone questioned his players' effort levels in the fourth quarter of Game 2. We will probably bet the UNDER on the full-game total of 214.5 — but we are 100 percent betting the UNDER on the first-quarter total.
Signature game bets: Most points scored in 2nd half (+125)
It's widely known at this point that the Heat have enjoyed a +90 point differential in fourth quarters this postseason. Miami's second-half offense and fourth-quarter defense have been stellar. Erik Spoelstra's squad has struggled, however, to get going in the first half.
Over the Heat's past four first-half frames, they have posted scoring totals of 25, 26, 22, and 20. And if they're setting the tone defensively and making Denver's life difficult to start Game 3, we're banking on much better scoring production in the second half than the first. The plus odds make this even more appealing.
First quarter player prop: Nikola Jokic OVER 2.5 assists (-155)
The talk of the NBA town after Game 2 — much to Erik Spoelstra's dismay — was about how Miami let Jokic go off as a scorer while limiting his impact as a passer and playmaker. The two-time MVP finished the loss with just four assists, his lowest total this postseason.
For Denver to rebound and take back control of this series, Jokic will need to get his other players involved early and often. He set the table in the first quarter of Game 1, getting Aaron Gordon and other complementary players involved and not even shooting the ball until late in the frame. Six of Joker's 14 assists came in that opening quarter.
We all know the stats by now — the Nuggets are 0-3 this postseason in Jokic's three highest scoring games, and they're 9-0 when he scores under 30 points. We're betting on the star Serbian finishing with well over two assists in the first quarter, providing us with a quick-and-easy green checkmark. And who cares if we're taking on a little juice? An $11 wager pays out a little over $18. We would rather win a bunch of easy $18 payouts than sweat out a $100 coin-flip.
Head-to-head three-pointers: Jimmy Butler +0.5 vs. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (-135 on DraftKings) or Butler +1.5 vs. Michael Porter Jr. (+130 on DK)
"Jimmy Buckets" is typically known more for his mid-range game and driving the lane, but during this time of the year "Playoff Jimmy" opens his offense up to include three-point shooting as well. And while clutch superstars like "HIMMY" turn it on in the postseason, complementary players like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Michael Porter Jr. tend to get dwarfed by the moment.
Butler has eight triples over Miami's past four games — and three combined between Finals Games 1 and 2 — while KCP and MPJ have combined for just five total through the first two games. KCP hit one in Game 1 and one in Game 2, so we feel Butler has a clear advantage getting the win with a tie. MPJ hit two in Game 1 and one in Game 2, so we're really confident getting a +1.5 handicap against him.
These players looked like their confidence was shot on the offensive side of the floor last time out, and their teammates weren't even passing to them by the end of the game. We'll take the more confident clutch player at home over the dwindling role players.
Player performance doubles/promos: Jamal Murray and Jimmy Butler to each score 20-plus points (+100 on DraftKings)
Even with Butler switching onto Murray for Game 2, the Nuggets point guard still poured in 18 points. And now that Malone and company have enjoyed some time to break down their woeful fourth quarter in the film room, we expect some major adjustments out of the Nuggets in Game 3. That should include a lot of Nikola Jokic and Murray in the two-man game on high screen-and-rolls and cuts to the basket. It should also include a lot more of Murray creating off the dribble and a lot less ball-dominance from Joker.
The Butler part of this equation, especially at home, seems like the easy part. But Murray has established himself as almost as reliable a postseason threat offensively as "Playoff Jimmy." We should be in for quite the battle between these two this evening, and we're all about the +100 odds as we root for them both to score a ton of points.
4th quarter spread: Heat +0.5 (-115 on DraftKings)
If the Nuggets get out to another big lead throughout the first three frames of Game 3, we can expect the Heat to push more of the same desperate, balls-to-the-wall pace as we have seen from them in the fourth quarter all postseason.
If Miami owns the game from the jump, we can expect them to tighten up defensively and limit Denver's open looks from beyond the arc. No team plays better with a lead than Spo's squad, and even more impressively, no team this postseason has come back from more double-digit deficits.
The Heat are a complete team with focus, attention to detail, and proper execution of the game plan, making them a difficult opponent to get down and keep down. Based on what we have seen, we would be crazy to bet against Miami at home in the fourth quarter.
Biggest player prop fade: Michael Porter Jr. (O/U 14.5 points, 2.5 three-pointers)
MPJ looked afraid of the moment in the first two games of this series, and the lights only get brighter in Miami with the series all evened up.
We didn't just see this kid struggling to shoot — we saw him holding his head down, looking lost, and barely moving without the ball at all. Porter Jr.'s teammates appeared to give up on him, not looking his way on a handful of possessions in a row (and even avoiding him on a fast-break opportunity). His coach seemed to single him out in the post-game press conference, too, talking about individual efforts of guys who were missing shots.
None of this is good, and we have seen nothing out of MPJ to suggest that he will suddenly rebound from his Finals slump and mount a bounce-back effort on the road. We're more confident in him getting benched than in him scoring 15 points or hitting three triples. Smash the UNDER on Porter Jr.'s points projection (-115) and three-point total (-110).
