Where will James Harden play his next NBA minute? Odds, best bets, sleeper teams in the latest Beard sweepstakes

The NBA free agency frenzy begins Friday at 6:00 p.m. ET. So, naturally, James Harden decided on Thursday that it was once again time for the Beard to get weird.

The 10-time All-Star has opted into his $35.9 million contract in order for the 76ers to execute a trade to ship him out of Philadelphia, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.

Shortly after the Woj-bomb, The Athletic's Shams Charania added that the Clippers and the Eastern Conference-champion Heat could emerge as potential suitors. Citing sources, Charania said that Daryl Morey and the Sixers have already started to engage in trade discussions with other teams.

Obviously, this is huge news to drop on the eve of what is already expected to be a free-agency Friday filled with fireworks. The former MVP, three-time scoring champ, and seven-time All-NBA selection already topped our list of the Sporting News' top free agents of the summer. Now he could be a part of the biggest blockbuster of the offseason, upstaging the Chris Paul-Bradley Beal deal and the Marcus Smart-Kristaps Porzingis three-teamer.

So, where will the king of the step-back end up? Could he really be taking his talents to South Beach this fall? Will he team up with Kawhi Leonard and company in Cali? Or, will a mystery team swoop in and spoil the big-market, superteam-building fun? Let's take a look at DraftKings' odds for James Harden's 2023-24 NBA team, and then discuss the best bets, sleepers, and long shots to win this massive offseason sweepstakes.

MORE NBA FREE AGENCY:
Overview | Top 50 FA Big Board | 10 FA Sleepers | Top 11 point guards

James Harden Next Team Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

Best bet to land Harden: Clippers (-200)

Harden likely wants to join a big-market contender that can't afford to sign him outright but can swing a deal to acquire him. Why else would he opt into a contract with Philly and then ask for a trade? Teams with a ton of cap space (a la Harden's former team, the Rockets) could have just thrown a bag at him and called it a day. But with Houston reportedly content with rookie point guard Amen Thompson — and shifting its focus to Brook Lopez, Dillon Brooks, and Fred VanVleet in free agency — the Beard saw the writing on the wall and realized he needed to opt in.

Los Angeles makes all the sense in the world for both parties. For starters, Harden was born and raised in southern California. And Kawhi Leonard (when healthy) serves as one of the five best championship anchors in the Association. Ty Lue is also a very well-liked NBA coach with a title under his belt from his days in Cleveland. And the Clips have a motivated owner and management team, not to mention a bevy of assets they could package in a blockbuster. 

L.A. almost pulled the trigger on a three-team trade to acquire Celtics guard and Sixth Man of the Year Malcolm Brogdon — the initial trade that would have landed Kristaps Porzingis in Boston — but the Clips pulled out at the last minute due to concerns about the elbow injury Brogdon sustained in the playoffs. The would-be deal that Trent Redden and Mark Hughes backed out on involved shipping out veteran Marcus Morris, 26-year-old wing Amir Coffey, and multiple picks. 

Morris would almost certainly be included in a potential trade for Harden, and Sixth Man of the Year candidate Norm Powell might be a featured player as well. Los Angeles also has young assets like Coffey, Terance Mann, Bones Hyland, and 2023 first-round pick Kobe Brown — plus a plethora of picks and pick swaps — that could entice Morey into a negotiation.

The Clippers already saved $110 million in luxury tax when they waived Eric Gordon on Thursday. By not guaranteeing EG's $21 million salary this upcoming season — and shedding the future costs of the 34-year-old's bloated contract — they affirmed everyone's notions that the franchise is looking to finally bring in a point guard.

Some still think Kyrie Irving could be that guy. But we think if (and maybe a big if) Irving leaves Dallas, it will be to join the other L.A. squad. The best bet to land Harden, in our eyes, is on the Clippers. Harden and Paul George have engaged in some historic duels in the past — could they join forces as Kawhi allies this fall? We think so. 

MORE: Steph Noh breaks down the Harden rumors

Top value bet to land Harden: Heat (+800) 

Shams said just minutes after the Harden news broke that Los Angeles and Miami emerged as early favorites to land the 10-time All-Star, but somehow DraftKings has the Heat listed with just the fifth-shortest odds at +800. We'll say this simply — if the Clippers don't land Harden — and Miami can't finagle Damian Lillard — Harden will more than likely be Heat-bound.

Miami steamrolled through the Eastern Conference and ultimately outlasted the Celtics thanks to heroic efforts by Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo, a breakout of epic proportions from Caleb Martin, and sizzling-hot outside shooting from Martin, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Duncan Robinson. Pat Riley remains one of the most savvy roster-builders in the league, and Erik Spoelstra continues to make his case for the Mount Rushmore of NBA coaches. "Heat Culture" — as cringy as it sounds — is alive and well, and teaming up with Butler and Bam could give Harden his best chance yet at ring No. 1. 

Plus, it never hurts that Miami has some of the best night life of all the NBA cities, Florida has no state income tax, and Harden's best friend — rapper Lil Baby — lives in Tampa just an hour away from MIA by plane. And just imagine how much Riley would (at least internally) love reaping the benefits of a franchise player departing Philly for the second time in four years.

How can Riley make it work? Well, he basically needs to ship out at least $28.5 million of cap, unless Morey demands that Miami take $22 million albatross P.J. Tucker back after that mid-level whiff by the Sixers. But that would almost assuredly blow up any chance at a deal, so don't count on a P.J. dump if Miami becomes the only resort and Riley gains leverage. More than likely, the pieces would be Tyler Herro, Nikola Jovic, and a plethora of picks. 

Sleeper bet to land Harden: Suns (+2500)

Good heavens, how wild it would be for Phoenix to land James Harden. Even crazier to fathom would be a Beal-Harden swap just weeks after the Suns shipped out CP3 for Beal. It's also not completely inconceivable for big man DeAndre Ayton — not exactly a Valley favorite at this point — to be dealt in a three-way swap with another squad. As Kevin Garnett once said, "Anything's possible!"

Say what you will (we get it, the Suns have six total players on their roster right now), but Harden, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, and either Beal or Ayton makes for one hell of a core. And we all know about how close Harden and KD have grown over the years. Nothing surprises us in the NBA anymore, especially with Harden getting traded from three different teams in a matter of just a few years. A modest wager here would make for a fantastic story down the line if Harden to Phoenix actually comes to fruition.

Long shot bets to land Harden: Bulls (+5500), Spurs (+4000), Grizzlies (+5500)

Since it's the "long shot" section, we almost included Toronto and New Orleans, too. But we doubt either franchise would trade their star player in Fred VanVleet or Zion Williamson, especially for a guy who could very well end up a one-year rental (or worse, force a trade in February). The other three teams here seem like distant possibilities, though, if you squint hard enough. 

Chicago has been looking for a point guard since Lonzo Ball took up residence on the injury shelf, and coach Billy Donovan likes Harden a lot (OKC connection!). If Marc Eversley and the Bulls could convince Harden to stick around after the 2023 season, it might be the deal that's finally worth making for oft-rumored trade chip Zack LaVine. A nucleus of Harden, DeMar DeRozan, and Nikola Vucevic — plus a couple solid free agency acquisitions — would likely put the Chi right back into the Eastern Conference picture. 

The Spurs are a great dark horse in this race. Gregg Popovich has long been one of Harden's biggest NBA fans, and the two have grown close throughout the years. Harden also lives in Houston, a one-hour flight from San Antonio. Oh, and drafting a generational prospect like Victor Wembanyama never hurts a team's chances at landing a star.

Pop has assembled quite a few high-upside assets during the tankathon bridge years, so packaging two young studs and a veteran with a mid-tier salary could (in theory) get a deal done. It's more of a long shot, as San Antonio likely still wouldn't contend for a chip right away — and Pop is 74, while Harden is turning 34 — but it's at least a fun thought as a long shot.

Lastly, and probably the longest shot we've discussed yet, is Memphis. If Zach Kleiman and the Grizzlies decide they're done with Ja Morant and his immature antics for good — and see a road to immediate contention with Harden — they could decide to pull the trigger (oh no, what did I just do?). Realistically, though, the Grizz would probably rather hold onto Ja or at least wait until his value bumps back up a bit. And Morey — at this stage of his career, and after multiple Philly-related headaches in just three short years — probably wants nothing to do with Morant's drama.

In the end, the Clippers have the shortest odds for a reason. They are the most motivated in the hunt for a point guard, the easiest path to a Harden championship, and the closest NBA proximity to Harden's hometown. We can talk for hours about dream Harden destinations or 2K23-like fantasy trades — but the most likely outcome is the Beard landing in Los Angeles to form the Association's next super trio.

Good luck with your futures bets, and enjoy the Friday night frenzy!