For the eighth-seeded Miami Heat and second-seeded Boston Celtics, Wednesday night's Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals fit perfectly into each team's 2023 NBA Playoffs narrative.
Miami, always underestimated and seemingly never favored on the road, shocked the NBA world yet again with a 123-116 upset over the reigning Eastern Conference champions. The Celtics (-8.5) now look to rebound from yet another postseason loss at home, hoping to even the series back up at TD Garden tonight (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT).
At halftime of Game 1, Joe Mazzulla's Celtics had a 66-57 lead. Every main rotational player for Miami seemed to be shooting the lights out, but Boston had a 40-16 advantage in points in the paint. We'll take it, most Celtics fans thought. We're lucky to have a lead with how our team played defense in those first two quarters.
In the third quarter, though, all the Celtics' good withered away into bad and ugly. The Heat scored 46 points on 25 possessions to win the frame 46-25. Miami shot over 65 percent from the floor and committed just one turnover. Erik Spoelstra's squad out-rebounded Boston 13-5. A nine-point halftime lead had suddenly morphed into a 103-91 deficit entering the fourth quarter.
Bam Adebayo got it cooking down low, flipping the script from the Celtics' interior dominance in the first half. Jimmy Butler was incredible, finishing with 35 points, seven assists, six steals, and five rebounds. Six Heat players finished with multiple treys. Even Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin, and Gabe Vincent looked spectacular in their roles. Even Kevin Love chipped in, for crying out loud.
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The Celtics went on to win the 4th quarter 25-20, but it wasn't nearly enough to dig themselves out of their 12-point hole. Jayson Tatum, coming off a 51-point Game 7 against the 76ers in the semis, took four second-half shots and zero in the fourth quarter. Boston squandered yet another golden opportunity and lost yet another postseason home game, two MOs that Mazzulla's squad has baked into its 2023 NBA Playoffs DNA at this point.
Will Boston once again bounce back from a disappointing postseason loss at home, or will Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and the Heat jump out to the crucial 2-0 series lead in enemy territory? Let's dive into odds, discuss some betting trends, and make our best bets and favorite player props for Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Celtics and the Heat.
Celtics vs. Heat Game 2 odds, picks, predictions
- Spread: Celtics -8.5 (-115) | Heat +8.5 (-105)
- Total: OVER 214.5 (-110) | UNDER 214.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Celtics -400 | Heat +310
Oddsmakers have seen this movie before — they aren't expecting the Celtics to mope around after a Game 1 loss to Spoelstra's Heat. Whereas Miami has "Heat Culture" to help it overcome the odds, the Celtics have a gritty collective resolve when opponents knock them down or pin them against the ropes. Thus, BetMGM lists them as -8.5 favorites to prevail this evening.
Boston never seems to go the easy route. The Celts are just 11-11 at home in the past three postseasons. However, they are 4-1 following a loss during this year's playoffs and an NBA-best 20-10 following a loss since the start of the 2022-23 regular season. So, here we are again.
MORE HEAT-CELTICS: Best Game 2 props | Series odds
It should also be noted that Miami has only strung together two consecutive road wins twice this calendar year and has yet to post two road wins in any series this postseason. You've got some serious intestinal fortitude if you're betting the Heat straight up at +310 to win two games in a row over the reining Eastern Conference champs.
The spread is a different matter. A whopping 8.5 points? How can any Boston backer like that number? Going back to December, the Celtics have gone just 13-17 ATS when favored by eight or more points. As a home favorite of eight points or more, they have lost four playoff games straight up in a row. When the whole betting world thinks this Boston team will win, the Celtics seem to let the whole world down.
However, you have options. Go one of two routes: either trim Boston's spread down to -4.5 at -225 or give Miami a couple more points and buy them at +10.5 for just -130. The Celtics have covered the spread in two of their past three home games in which they were favored by 4-5 points (they won all three outright). Additionally, all three of those games went OVER their projected points totals. Miami has also fared well as road 'dogs of between four and five points, going 4-1 in such contests, both straight up and ATS.
We like the Celtics to again rebound from a tough loss, but we're tempering expectations with their ability to blow the doors off Butler and the Heat. We have seen far too many inconsistencies from Boston, far too many mishaps from rookie head coach Mazzulla, and far too few clutch moments from All-NBA selection Jayson Tatum. These guys have a continual Jekyll and Hyde act going on, which means bettors must tread lightly as the lights continue to get brighter. Bet them to win, but do it in a smart way — nobody wants to predict the right outcome but lose on the spread by two points.
Prediction: Celtics 112, Heat 106. The Celtics win but the Heat cover the spread (+8.5) and the game goes OVER the total (214.5). Bet Boston at -4.5 (-225) or Miami at +10.5 (-130), and consider the Celts at -3.5 in the first quarter.
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Best SuperDraft player prop bet for Celtics vs. Heat: Jaylen Brown OVER 24.5 points
Brown has averaged 25.8 points per game following a Celtics loss this postseason, and we like him to rise again like the Dark Knight this evening. Boston became stagnant in the second half of Game 1 when seemingly only Marcus Smart was taking shots. Mazzulla needs to ensure that Brown and Tatum should be the main catalysts of this offense. If the Heat put Butler on JT, it's go time for JB. Nobody on this Heat squad other than Butler and Adebayo can guard the All-Star forward, and there's just no way we see Butler give up his defensive assignment on Tatum, who finished fourth in MVP voting and dropped a 50-piece to eliminate the Sixers. Bam, similarly, won't have the luxury of leaving Rob Williams or Al Horford down low. Miami is flat-out too small to have its center guarding a perimeter threat. These are the moments that Brown needs to prove his worth as an All-NBA talent. We think he's up for the challenge.
