After a wild Wednesday night in the NBA, our second Sporting News Wednesday night Prop-A-Shot is in the books. We nailed a handful of player props, game props, and spread bets despite some massive surprises throughout the evening, and we finished strong with hits on all three of our live bets during the Bucks-Nets, Raptors-Wizards, and 76ers-Magic games.
For anyone unfamiliar with our NBA Prop-A-Shot series, here's how it works: We unveil our favorite prop bets of the night on Wednesday morning, then provide updates when the odds shift or over/under projections rise or fall. We then live blog during the entirety of Wednesday evening, from the opening tip of the 7:00 p.m. ET games to the final buzzer of the last late game.
Of course, we follow the big stars before, during, and after the action — but our main goal is to (a) help you win money as a bettor, and (b) help you see how we approach traditional and live betting. It's basically free admittance to see a betting analyst's thoughts, strategies, value bets, fades, hits, and misses. There's no censorship here — we lay it all on the line, whether good, bad, or ugly.
We also highlight the top betting storylines, developments, and bad beats throughout the night, as the Association always seems to have us expecting the unexpected. Our main focus, though, is to deliver what we see through a betting lens so that you're set up for a sustainable level of success moving forward.
Whether you're thinking about dabbling in betting for the first time or you're a seasoned bettor looking to sharpen your edge, we've got you covered all season long. Thanks for stopping by, enjoy our recap of Sporting News' Week 2 Prop-A-Shot, and we look forward to seeing you again next Wednesday!
All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams Thunder past the Knicks 129-120
- Bets hit: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 33.5 (-145); Thunder -3.5 (-110, both bets placed Wednesday morning)
- Bets missed: None
SUMMARY (10:30 p.m.): Holy moly, did Jalen Williams just have himself a game! Sure, SGA was electric once again, scoring 36 to go along with seven rebounds and eight assists, but JDub shot 13-of-17 to get his 36! He shot 76.5 percent from the floor and 100 percent from deep, knocking down all five of his treys. He, SGA, and Chet Holmgren are the story of the night. Chet had four blocks and 22 points on 9-of-14 shooting. The trio combined for 94 points on 64.8 percent from the floor. Our only regret is not betting more on the 20-9 Thunder!
UPDATE (9:15 p.m.): SGA is a bad, bad man. The MVP candidate has 19 points at halftime, with his squad all over New York 69-60. We're right on track with Shai's OVER, OKC -3.5, and we could easily hit the Thunder 1-6 prop if Jalen Brunson and the Knicks make a little second-half run.
From earlier: SGA is quietly putting on another MVP-level season for the Thunder, averaging 30.8 points, 6.3 assists, and 5.7 rebounds per game while maintaining shooting splits of 53.5/30.7/91.2. If the dude can raise his three-point shooting to 35-38 percent at any point in his career, he's going to break the game of basketball.
We can't imagine betting against Gilgeous-Alexander in what should be a close game against the 17-12 Knicks. The superstar point guard averaged 33.5 points per game in two games against New York last season, and the Knicks will be even more vulnerable to SGA's penetrating drives now that stud defender Mitch Robinson suffered a season-ending ankle injury three weeks ago.
OKC has won seven of its past 10 games and sits 19-9 on the season, and we don't expect SGA or the surging squad around him to slow down anytime soon. In addition to Gilgeous-Alexander's OVER, we're also betting the Thunder -3.5 and we might even consider betting them at +360 to win by 1-6 points. Why bet such a specific scoring margin prop? The value! OKC has a +4.8 scoring margin over its past five home games, and +360 yields a far better payout than OKC -3.5 at -105.
Giannis scores 32 points, Bucks stomp Nets 144-122
- Bets hit: Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 31.5 points (-125, earlier today); Bucks -10.5 (live betting ATS, halftime); Bucks win 1st quarter and the game (-150, earlier today)
- Bets missed: None
Summary (10:00 p.m.): As we expected, the Bucks ran away with this one. Giannis finished with 32 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists, and he probably would have stayed out there longer to collect the last two dimes for a triple-double if Adrian Griffin let him.
UPDATE (8:40 p.m.): Approaching halftime, the Bucks have been hovering around a 10-point lead over the Nets. Jacque Vaughn's rotations have been... well... interesting. The Brooklyn head coach is clearly trying to fight fire with fire by deploying multiple bigs (Day'Ron Sharpe, Noah Clowney, Trendon Watford, even Harry Giles!) against Milwaukee's massive front court. The Bucks got a little sloppy toward the end of the first half — they committed multiple turnovers/dumb fouls, didn't box out, etc. — with Milwaukee up 66-58 at halftime, we would bet the favorites to cover the -10.5. The Bucks are the second-best second-half team in the NBA.
From earlier: This year has been wild in terms of offense, to the point that we're crushing OVER 31.5-point player props at an alarming rate. We have hit on every Giannis OVER at this level this season, and we don't expect the good times to stop rolling this evening.
What can we say about the Greek Freak you don't already know? He has scored 32 points in 16 of the 29 games he has played this season. In the 22 games since his 54-point game against Indiana on Nov. 9, he has averaged 32.8 PPG. Oh, and he's shooting 60.7 percent from the floor since November 1.
Don't worry about Milwaukee being on the road — Giannis had 36 points on 15-of-27 shooting the last time the Bucks visited the Nets (11/6), and that was despite going 1-of-7 from three-point land. The two-time MVP hasn't taken more than three triples in any other game this season, a strategy that has paid off well for Adrian Griffin's 22-8 Bucks. Antetokounmpo's two-point field-goal percentage: 63.9.
Pound the OVER for the red-hot Giannis against a Nets squad that has suffered some 'failure to launch' moments over the past couple weeks. Brooklyn has dropped five of its past seven, only managing victories over the hapless Pistons during that stretch. Brooklyn's five-game losing streak saw Jacque Vaughn's squad get outscored 149-123 in first quarters. For that reason, we're also betting the Bucks to win the first quarter and the game (parlay those, if possible!).
Scottie Barnes delivers double-double, Raptors flush Wizards 132-102
- Bets hit: Scottie Barnes double-double (-135, earlier today); Raptors -9.5 (live bet at halftime)
- Bets missed: None
SUMMARY (9:15 p.m.): The Raptors destroyed the Wizards 132-102, and Barnes finished with 20 points, 11 rebounds, and eight assists. We cashed on the Barnes double-double prop (we got in early at -135) as well as the Raptors -9.5 at halftime (-110). Schwing!
UPDATE (8:00 p.m.): Toronto is rolling right now and Washington can't get out of its own way. The Wiz are turning the ball over left and right and some players aren't even running back in transition after giveaways. In what seemed like a flash, the Raptors moved from up six to up 11. Washington's Corey Kispert hit a buzzer-beater to make it 59-50 at the break, though. We would be all over Toronto -9.5 at halftime. The Raps are going to break the Wizards in the second half. Oh, and Barnes has 13/6/4, so we're well on our way to a double-double.
UPDATE (6:45): The juice on Barnes' double-double jumped to -150, but we're still betting it. This is a no-brainer — the man is on a torrid pace and stat-padding should help his chances at making his first All-Star Game.
From earlier: Barnes has been a force for the Raptors this season, easily the most overlooked young star in the NBA today. Over the past two weeks, the 2021-22 Rookie of the Year has averaged over 24 points and 10 rebounds per game. And he's getting better as the season progresses — in just the past four games, Barnes has averaged 24 points, 12 rebounds, 6.8 assists, and 2.3 blocks while shooting 50 percent from the field, 36.4 from three, and 94.7 percent from the line.
The Wizards have been the worst defense in the Association this season, in terms of points allowed and defensive rating. They also rank dead-last in rebounds, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds allowed, and total rebounds allowed per game. Washington also allows a league-high 30.1 assists per game, so a double-double almost seems like too easy a goal for Scottie this evening. Hell, the dude might put up 30/20/10 triple-double!
Kevin Durant, Eric Gordon, and the Suns burn Rockets 129-113
- Bets hit: None
- Bets missed: Kevin Durant OVER 28.5 (-110); Jusuf Nurkic OVER 12.5 points (-110)
- Best fade: Durant 27.5 points (-145) — we didn't like the pregame juice. Glad we didn't bite, because he finished with 27 (bad beat alert!)
SUMMARY (10:35 p.m.): Durant only needed 27 points tonight because Eric Gordon turned into scorched Earth against his former squad. EG hit 7-of-11 three-pointers and wound up tying KD with 27. Devin Booker only scored 20, and Jusuf Nurkic had a pedestrian eight. Talk about a swing and a miss on our parts — who could have seen this coming!? Gordon hit more threes than he totaled in his past five games combined! I guess we can't win 'em all.
UPDATE (9:15 p.m.): The Suns are clobbering the Rockets 73-55, with former Rocket Eric Gordon lighting it up from outside. KD is doing it all — blocking shots, dishing out 10 assists, grabbing steals — but he hasn't even needed to score. This game is a runaway. We should have jumped all over Phoenix as soon as Ime Udoka announced Dillon Brooks out.
UPDATE (6:50 p.m.): KD's points total decreased to 27.5 but the odds shifted from a light -110 to a heavy -145. Might not be worth your while to take on so much juice against a good defensive squad.
76ers roll to 20-point victory over Magic in Orlando
- Bets hit: Tyrese Maxey UNDER 27 points (-120 on the live betting market)
- Bets missed: Maxey OVER 29.5 (-110, earlier today — we faded when it bumped to 30.5); Magic -3.5 (-110, humongous whiff on our part)
SUMMARY (9:15 p.m.): This is a textbook example of why we can't marry ourselves to a prop. While we had Maxey OVER 29.5, the writing was on the wall for the star guard to struggle to crack 30 again, and we read between the lines perfectly to avoid losing too much scratch on this game. He wound up with 23 as Philly mounted a balanced-effort beatdown of the Magic. Tobias Harris and De'Anthony Melton both had 22, and six Sixers finished in double-digits.
UPDATE (7:18 p.m.) — Maxey has 14 at the break, a hell of a bounce-back after a slow start to the game. This is why he's an All-Star. Nick Nurse likely told his star guard after his second foul that he should not — under any circumstances — be committing any fouls. We're still not ashamed of our UNDER hedge. Orlando plays so tough at home, and Jalen Suggs is about as pesky a backcourt defender as the NBA has in this day and age. 52-46 Philly at intermission — dare we say there's value in the OVER (211.5)? We won't pull the trigger, but it's certainly intriguing — both these squads scored 64 second-half points in their last game.
UPDATE (7:18) — Maxey just subbed out with two fouls before 1:30 before the halfway point of the first quarter. That's not a great sign. We might consider live betting his UNDER now while it's still in the high 20s.
UPDATE (6:30) — With a plethora of betting action on Maxey's OVER, it moved from 29.5 up to 30.5 with modest juice. The value has diminished from this OVER, so we understand why you would pass.
Caris LeVert and the Cavaliers rally to stun Mavericks 113-110
- Bets hit: None
- Bets missed: Luka Doncic OVER 10.5 assists
SUMMARY (11:00 p.m. ET): The Mavericks seemed to be in control until Luka's final check-in, at which point Dallas started turning the ball over and Cleveland started getting hot. The Cavs shot, blocked, and rebounded its way to a 20-point comeback, somehow keeping Jason Kidd's squad dry for five whole fourth-quarter minutes. LeVert had his fingerprints all over this victory. That's about as tough a loss as Mavericks fans — and bettors, for that matter — can take. Luckily for us, we only lost on the one prop we played in this one: the Luka assist prop.
Final run-down of betting hits and misses
Traditional bets (moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop bets made prior to games)
- Thunder -3.5 (-110) ✅
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 33.5 points (-145) ✅
- Bucks win 1st quarter and the game (-150) ✅
- Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 31.5 points (-125) ✅
- Scottie Barnes double-double (-135), Raptors at Wizards ✅
- Kevin Durant OVER 28.5 points, Suns at Rockets (-110) ❌
- Jusuf Nurkic OVER 12.5 points (-110) ❌
- Magic -3.5 vs 76ers ❌
- Tyrese Maxey OVER 29.5 points ❌
- Luka Doncic OVER 10.5 assists ❌
Live bets (spread, player prop, over/under bets during games)
- Bucks -10.5 at Nets ✅
- Raptors -9.5 at Wizards ✅
- Tyrese Maxey UNDER 27 points, 76ers at Magic ✅
Final Week 2 Prop-A-Shot Score: 8-5
Full Season Prop-A-Shot Record: 20-14
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