Best NBA prop bets today: Zion Williamson, Austin Reaves highlight top over/under picks for Thursday

The NBA's inaugural In-Season Tournament moves to T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for semifinal action on Thursday. The first game of tonight's IST doubleheader features a likely fast-paced and high-scoring Central Division matchup between the Bucks and Pacers (5:00 p.m. ET, ESPN), followed by a prime-time clash between the Lakers and Pelicans (9:00 p.m. ET, TNT).

Thursday's semifinal matchups also offer several valuable player prop opportunities on SuperDraft, providing NBA DFS players with a chance to cash in.

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Let's get to our picks and break down four of our favorite player props on SuperDraft for Thursday's In-Season Tournament doubleheader. Remember: you don't necessarily have to combine all four picks together. You could make separate two-leg or three-leg parlays to increase your win probability, or you could attempt to hit it big if all four picks come through. 

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Best NBA prop bets today: Top player prop picks for Bucks-Pacers, Lakers-Pelicans

1. Zion Williamson, PF, Pelicans vs. Lakers — OVER 6 rebounds

Against a Lakers team reliant on attacking the paint and using their physicality to their advantage, Williamson will need to do his part on the glass, making his OVER 6 rebounds an intriguing play. Zion is averaging just under six rebounds a game in 31.2 minutes of action (5.8 reb), but in a playoff-like matchup, we could see Zion play 35-plus minutes, giving him every opportunity to total seven-plus boards.

According to the the NBA's tracking stats, Williamson sees a respectable number of rebounding opportunities per game (10.3), but we expect that total to be even higher against a Lakers team that thrives in the paint. Willie Green's team needs to crash the glass as a collective group, as Anthony Davis and LeBron James likely have the upper hand in their potential matchups against Jonas Valančiūnas and Herbert Jones/Brandon Ingram.

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2. Austin Reaves, PG, Lakers vs. Pelicans  — OVER 1.5 made three-pointers

Reaves' dagger three helped the Lakers keep their IST title hopes alive, as the sharp-shooting guard was instrumental in L.A.'s quarterfinal victory over Phoenix (20 points, seven-of-16 FG). Reaves made three-of-eight three-point attempts, and with plenty of attention focused on LeBron, Reaves could be the primary beneficiary.

James' ability to draw help side defenders from his dribble-drives likely creates openings on the perimeter. While it's not wise to sag off Reaves, the Pelicans have to pick their poison, and focusing on the interior is probably their best plan of attack. We could see Reaves hoist eight-plus triples for a second straight game, making his OVER 1.5 made three-pointers prop a worthwhile wager.

3. Khris Middleton, SF, Bucks vs. Pacers — OVER 14.5 points

While Middleton is still being eased back into play after offseason knee surgery, he's starting to look like his normal self on the floor. In Milwaukee's quarterfinal victory over New York on Tuesday, Middleton totaled 14 points on an efficient six-of-12 shooting over 26 minutes. Middleton only needed to play 26 minutes with the Bucks in firm control throughout the second half, but against the Pacers' lethal offense, Thursday's matchup is likely to be more competitive.

There's a chance Middleton logs 30-plus minutes for the first time this season with a trip to the IST championship on the line, playing into his chances of going OVER his points prop. With a high number of points expected in a high-possession track meet (over/under 257.5), Middleton has a chance to put up 15-plus field goal attempts, putting him in line to end the day with 15-plus points.

4. Aaron Nesmith, SF, Pacers vs. Bucks — UNDER 11.5 points

Even though a bunch of points are expected in today's Bucks-Pacers matchup, we're not sure Nesmith surpasses his point total of 11.5. Yes, Nesmith has been efficient this season (55.1 FG%) and has gone OVER this total in two straight games, but he typically doesn't command high volume, averaging just 7.5 field goal attempts per game.

Nesmith did his part in a revenge game against the Celtics on Tuesday night (14 points, six-of-10 FG), but his main contributions to the Pacers come on the defensive end.