The No. 2 seed Celtics look to take a commanding 3-1 lead over the No. 3 seed 76ers in Philly on Sunday afternoon (3:30 ET, ESPN), after Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown led Boston to a 114-112 Game 3 victory on Friday. Many regard this Game 4 as a tough one to predict from a traditional betting perspective — the Sixers could respond from two straight Ls with aggressiveness and rally behind MVP Joel Embiid, but they could also wilt under pressure once again and allow the Celts to cruise to a gentleman's sweep. We feel much more confident assembling a Sixers-Celts prop parlay on SuperDraft, which we'll reveal today.
The box score for Game 3 tells a number of stories, beyond the simple facts that Philly crumbled under pressure, failed to take care of the ball, and allowed Boston to knock down timely clutch shots. James Harden, a former MVP and multiple scoring champ, has shrunken down from 45-point Game 1 behemoth to a guy shooting 5-of-28 with a plus-minus of -33 across Games 2 and 3. Tyrese Maxey also struggled with his jumper on Friday, while Tobias Harris just refused to get open and shoot the ball.
The Celtics, meanwhile, have looked impeccable. The Jays combined for 50 points, 17 rebounds, and 10 assists in Game 3, and Boston's core six scorers accounted for 110 of the Celtics' 114 points. The threes have been flying — the C's have knocked down 36 triples over the past two games — and they are also moving the ball with flawless execution. Joe Mazzulla's squad had 26 assists in Game 2 and 26 in Game 3.
MORE CELTICS-76ERS: Game 4 betting preview and predictions
Our strategy with SuperDraft props: select over/unders that mirror the game narrative we expect to see. If a guy like Harden is in a serious rut, we will stay away. If we expect a young gunner like Maxey to rebound from a poor performance and leave it all on the floor, we will smash his OVER. And players like Brown, who has been playing the best basketball of his young career, are easy scoring picks to back in the mid-20s.
On SuperDraft, bettors can pick an over/under on two or more player props. When both props hit in a two-leg parlay, bettors win up to 3X the amount wagered. Each time another prop gets added, the return profit increases. Think of it as a "Same Game Parlay." More legs equal more risk, but also a bigger potential payout. However, not all players have the same props, so keep that in mind as you pick your over/under plays and try to win some cash during tonight's game.
SuperDraft Player Prop Picks for 76ers-Celtics Game 4
Jaylen Brown, SG, Celtics — OVER 25
Brown has enjoyed a masterful postseason — he averaged well over 26 points per game in Boston's opening-round series against Atlanta, and dropped 31-plus in Games 4, 5, and 6. JB seems to step up most consistently for the Celtics in big games, when Boston either faces a must-win situation or has the opportunity to inflict a crucial blow to its opponent. Moving to a 3-1 lead would be a deathblow to Philly, and we expect Brown to be the one serving up the most haymakers.
Tobias Harris, F, 76ers — UNDER 14.5 points
Sorry, Sixers Nation — Tobias Harris ain't it. This guy is bringing in nearly $77 million between this season and next, and he can't even score eight points in an NBA Playoff game? He took six shots in Game 3, and made three. With Harden shriveling into a little insignificant, unaggressive shell of his best self and Maxey struggling mightily with his shot, Harris failed to assert himself. This was the time to earn his max-contract paycheck. and he decided to hide in the corner and blend in with the perimeter defenders. If Doc Rivers is smart, he will put Melton and Danuel House Jr. into the game for longer stretches and sit Harris down altogether. At least the Sixers' defense will be better, and at least those guys won't be afraid of the ball altogether. Betting on Harris to score 15 points seems like the worst bet on the board today, so naturally we're making his UNDER of 14.5 one of our SuperDraft props of Game 4. Boo this man! Boo!
Tyrese Maxey, G, 76ers — OVER 19.5 points
Maxey scored 26 points in Game 1 and the Sixers mounted the improbable upset without Embiid. Then his production fizzled in Games 2 and 3, dropping just 13 points in each game, and Philly lost by a combined margin of 46. While it's nearly impossible for us to back Harden's OVER of 20.5 points (who knows which Beard we will get!?), we have faith that the young, aggressive Maxey will go out there and leave it all on the floor of Wells Fargo tonight. Boston won't give anything away — it's up to the Sixers to be assertive and take this game from the defending Eastern Conference champs. Maxey is a big part of that equation, and one we think will come up big tonight, win or lose.
Joel Embiid, C, 76ers — UNDER 11 rebounds
Embiid is a heck of a rebounder, but he's also the Sixers' only rim protector and he often serves as the help defender when one of Harden, Maxey, Harris, or Georges Niang gets smoked on a dribble-drive. He can't do it all — especially only a handful of games removed from a sprained LCL — so expect to see P.J. Tucker, Harris, and others continuing to help on the boards. This seems like a smash OVER — the MVP has a career-long average of 11.2 rebounds per game and 11.1 RPG throughout his playoff career — but he actually only finished this season with 10.2 RPG and he has failed to clear 11 boards in three of his five starts this postseason. Always dive deeper!
Marcus Smart, PG, Celtics — UNDER 5 assists
Smart has logged fewer than five assists in each of the last two games and five of Boston's past six games overall. The one game in which the green-haired point guard exceeded four dimes: Game 1 of this series, when he finished with seven but the Celtics took the L at home. If hockey assists counted, we'd smash the OVER at 7.5! But they don't, and we are happy to play the averages and follow the trend. Tatum, Brown, Derrick White, and Malcolm Brogdon have been more important offensive playmakers than Smart through three games this series. The 2022 Defensive Player of the Year will always be valuable as a lock-down stalwart and hustle-play maestro (he just won the NBA Hustle Award for the third time in five seasons). But his days as the predominant passer in this Celtics offense seem to be a thing of the past.
