Best Nikola Jokic prop bets: SuperDraft, BetMGM player prop picks for Game 5 of Nuggets-Heat

Nick Musial

Best Nikola Jokic prop bets: SuperDraft, BetMGM player prop picks for Game 5 of Nuggets-Heat image

Pegged as 8.5-point home favorites with a moneyline price of -400, the Nuggets are in prime position to close out the 2023 NBA Finals en route to their first championship in franchise history on Monday night (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC). Despite blowing a double-digit first-half lead in Game 2, the Nuggets dominated the third quarter of Games 3 and 4, outscoring the Heat by 18 points to help them take a commanding 3-1 series lead.

In Game 4, the soon-to-be Finals MVP, Nikola Jokic, couldn't replicate his historic Game 3 output, finishing with 23 points (eight-of-19 FG), 12 rebounds, and four assists in 37 foul-plagued minutes. Unfortunately, bettors banking on another stat-stuffing performance from the big man got let down, as Jokic ended the contest going UNDER on his points, rebounds, and assists props. Additionally, Jokic tweaked his ankle in the first quarter on Friday night but looks to be all systems go ahead of the potential championship-clinching Game 5. Bettors looking to make some wagers on the Denver big can navigate the bevy of props on SuperDraft and BetMGM.

On SuperDraft, bettors can pick an over/under on two or more player props. If you hit both, you win up to 3X the amount wagered, and the return increases each time you add another prop. Think of it as a "Same Game Parlay." More legs equal more risk, but also a bigger potential payout.  However, not all players have the same props, so keep that in mind as you pick your over/under plays and try to win some cash during tonight's game.

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One thing to keep in mind is that users can't play more than one prop for a single player in a SuperDraft entry. Therefore, we will spotlight some of our favorite SuperDraft props and a couple of player props you can bet on at BetMGM.

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Nikola Jokic SuperDraft Player Prop Picks for Nuggets-Heat Game 5

Nikola Jokic UNDER 29.5 points

Although Jokic is averaging 30.8 points through four NBA Finals contests, we'll hold our noses and bet the big man to end Game 5 failing to notch a 30-piece. It's never easy betting against the two-time MVP, but with his points prop already baking in 29.5 points, there's very little wiggle room. We'd rather be sweating the UNDER, thinking Jokic may be more inclined to find his open teammates at a higher clip rather than looking to score the rock.

Nikola Jokic OVER 13 rebounds

With Miami's three-point shooting efficiency finally coming back down to reality, we think Jokic ends Game 5 eclipsing 13 total rebounds. The Heat have made just 19 of its past 60 three-point attempts, and more bricks equal more rebounding opportunities for Jokic.

While his 21-rebound effort in Game 3 inflated his rebounding numbers in the Finals (13.5 rebounds per game), we think the Joker corrals enough missed shots to go OVER 13 rebounds for the second time this series. He's also averaging 21.9 rebounding chances per game this postseason, so the opportunity to grab 14-plus boards is certainly there.

Nikola Jokic BetMGM Player Prop Bets for Nuggets-Heat Game 5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM, an Authorized Gaming Operator of the NBA. Click HERE to sign up!

Nikola Jokic OVER 1.5 made three-pointers (+115) 

If Jokic's tweaked ankle hinders his playing abilities tonight, it could mean we see the big man attempting fewer drives to the basket while setting for more shots from the perimeter. Jokic is driving to the hoop 6.3 times per game in the playoffs, but that number might be even lower tonight. 

With Jokic tweaking his ankle in the first quarter on Friday, he ended Game 4 hoisting seven threes, canning three. The last time Jokic attempted more than seven threes was in Game 5 of the Nuggets' first-round series against the Timberwolves on April 25, so there's a chance his rolled ankle made him settle for perimeter shots at a higher-than-normal clip. If he shoots seven-plus threes tonight, we like our chances of Jokic sinking at least two.

Nikola Jokic OVER 9.5 assists (-140)

Jokic may also be more prone to finding his open teammates, making his OVER 9.5 assists prop an enticing wager. He's recorded 10-plus assists in just two of four Finals games, but we'll still lay some juice for the Joker to end Game 5 with a double-figure assist total.

He leads all players this postseason making 81.5 passes per game, resulting in Jokic racking up 9.8 assists. Factor in the potential for an even higher pass total on a less-than-100-percent ankle, and we think he ends his night going OVER this number.

Nick Musial

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Nick Musial is a Content Producer at The Sporting News. He recently joined the team after studying sport management and journalism at the University of Kansas. Nick’s an avid sports bettor who’s always looking for value.