Trae Young and the Hawks decided to make things interesting in their opening-round playoff series with the Celtics, mounting a massive Game 5 comeback in Boston and extending the series to a Game 6 tonight (8:30 p.m. ET, TNT). As we wrote in our betting preview for this game, we're treading lightly in terms of the traditional betting lines (Boston -275, Atlanta +230) and spread (Celtics -6.5). However, this evening's player prop market on SuperDraft offers a ton of value.
With a five-game sample size, we know what's working for these teams and what's not. Hawks coach Quin Snyder and Celtics coach Joe Mazzulla, both calculated leaders in the first year of their current tenures, will be playing some chess trying to capitalize on the opponents' weaknesses. Atlanta is just trying to stay alive and force a Game 7 back at TD Garden. Boston will be gunning to close this one out so it can avoid giving Joel Embiid and the 76ers more rest ahead of Round 2.
We have a ton of props to pick from for Game 5, with a massive amount of star power on both sides. We also have a ton of prop sites to choose from, with the player and game prop market continuing to rise in popularity with the continued expansion of legalized sports betting in the U.S.
Simply put, SuperDraft is a player prop paradise. You're not dealing with typical juice or plus odds while betting over/unders — you're just picking two or more over/unders and watching the potential payout go up each time you add one to the mix. When you select two, you win three times your stake if they hit. When you select three, it goes up to 6X. Four = 10X, five = 20X, six = 35X. Hit all four props on a $10 wager and you're looking at a $100 payout. Hit all six on a $100 stake and it's a jackpot of $3,500.
So, now that we know where to bet this evening, let's talk about how to bet — or, rather, who to bet. Below, we will highlight our five favorite SuperDraft player prop over/unders for Game 6 between the Hawks and the Celtics.
Best Celtics-Hawks Game 6 SuperDraft prop bets
Jayson Tatum UNDER 30.5 points
Tatum regularly draws way too much praise from casual fans and media alike, with many failing to realize that the star forward tends to struggle at the biggest moments under the brightest of lights. Game 5 in Boston was yet another example of JT just falling all over himself under pressure. The four-time All-Star scored 19 points, but he shot just 8-of-21 from the floor and an abysmal 1-of-10 from behind the arc.
The most maddening part is that Boston had been crushing Atlanta in the paint all series. So, why keep isolating from the perimeter and hoisting up low-percentage bombs?
Tatum is obviously a superstar, and his inside-outside abilities, playmaking skills, and defensive chops put him well ahead of all but a small percentage of the NBA universe. However, until he proves to us that he can step up in the biggest moments of the most important games, we can't consider him a legitimate MVP candidate.
Since the beginning of the 2022 NBA Playoffs, Tatum has failed to score 30 points in all five of the final games of Boston's postseason series. His scoring average in those games (four closeouts and, of course, one Finals elimination at the hands of Golden State) is 22 points per game. Don't just blindly go OVER when you see a star's name and a high scoring total. If Boston wins tonight, it will probably be thanks to the scoring contributions of someone other than Tatum.
Trae Young OVER 28 points
Young in big-game situations is like the polar opposite of Tatum: nails. The sharpshooting guard has elevated his offensive contributions in every game of this series, from 16 points in Game 1 to 24 in Game 2, to 32, 35, and 38 in Games 3, 4, and 5, respectively.
Young's massive 28-foot triple to seal the comeback victory in Game 5 at TD Garden was the most clutch play we have seen from any player this postseason not named Jimmy Butler. "Ice Trae" clearly has frozen veins because he's as cold as they come in big-game moments. In a closeout game, we would expect no less than a 30-piece from the two-time All-Star.
Jaylen Brown OVER 27 points
Brown has been sizzling over the past two games of this series, tying Tatum for a team-high 31 points in Game 4 and logging a team-high 35 in Game 5. He has a height and strength advantage over any defender Quin Snyder can put on him — typically Dejounte Murray — so Joe Mazzulla will likely keep going to him over and over to make things happen offensively.
JB has never been fazed by the big moments. When Tatum falters, Brown rises to the challenge. In closeout and/or elimination games over the Celtics' past three postseason series, Brown has averaged 31 points per game. He's also from Georgia, so we bet he will love being the main catalyst in a Celtics closeout victory at State Farm Arena this evening.
Dejounte Murray OVER 21.5 points
Murray shot out of a canon to start this series, with scoring totals in the first four games of 24, 29, 25, and 23, respectively. He was livid with the officiating in Game 4, as he went up to a ref and bumped into him after the game while appearing to utter something unfriendly. That led to a one-game suspension for the one-time All-Star, who we expect to be scorched Earth for Game 6 this evening.
The most impressive part of Murray's game this series has been his sudden stroke from long-range. He's knocked down 13 triples over his past three games, and no amount of Celtics pressure seems to be slowing him down. Murray's confidence is sky high, and so is our confidence in his ability to score 22-plus for the fifth straight game.
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Robert Williams III OVER 8.5 points
Williams was an x-factor in the Celtics' Game 4 victory over Atlanta last weekend, and yet he was severely underutilized in Game 5 back in Boston. 'Johnston Joe' Mazzulla was outsmarting himself, putting veteran Blake Griffin into a rotation he has been largely estranged from all calendar year. The result was a wonky offensive rhythm and clear lack of defensive chemistry.
Don't expect Mazzulla to make such a boneheaded rookie coaching move this time around. The longer Boston takes to close out this series, the longer MVP frontrunner Joel Embiid will have to rest his ailing knee ahead of Philly's Round 2 meeting with the winner of this series. If the Celtics want to be the ones to advance — and want any kind of advantage thanks to the Embiid injury — they will utilize Williams down low and close this thing out.
When Boston couldn't hit water while falling out of a boat in Game 5, it was Time Lord who came up with a massive and-one bucket. In Game 4, it was the drive-and-dish game to Williams that consistently worked best for the C's inside the arc. Sometimes, if it ain't broke, you gotta know to not fix it. Time Lord holds the keys as the series x-factor, and we expect him to reach at least the double-digits in points for the fourth time this series. We also like Time Lord's OVER on his eight rebounds prop.
