Best NBA playoff bets tonight: Pacers, Nuggets & a surprising Jalen Brunson prop highlight Tuesday's top picks

Included in this betting preview:

• Best moneyline pick
• Best bet against the spread
• Top over/under bet
• Highest-value player prop
• Full odds board for the day
• Updated NBA Playoffs bracket

The 2024 NBA Playoffs have started to heat up, and Tuesday's doubleheader should draw plenty of fan and betting interest.

The Pacers, who struggled in Games 1 and 2 of their semifinals series in New York, have flipped the script and evened things up with OG Anunoby sidelined. Indiana now looks to steal home-court advantage with a huge Game 5 win at Madison Square Garden.

The Nuggets have also tied things up in their series with the Wolves, bouncing back in a major way to take both Game 3 and 4 in Minnesota. The reigning champions have once again hit their stride, with Denver jumping from a +750 long shot to win this series to +375 to win the NBA Finals. What a difference a few days can make in futures betting!

Updated championship odds, best bets:
NBA Finals | Eastern Conference | Western Conference

Still, even with Indiana and Denver entering this evening with momentum, anything can happen. That’s what makes the playoffs one of the best stretches of the year for sports fans, and one of the most exciting times to be a bettor.

Here are the top values of the Tuesday evening BetMGM offerings, including the best moneyline, spread, over/under, and player prop bets.

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Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top moneyline bet

Pacers (+105) at Knicks

Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers haven't let New York win a first quarter since Game 1, and they know how golden their opportunity is to seize control of this series with OG Anunoby still sidelined. Indiana has a +29 first-quarter advantage over the past three games, highlighted by a 34-14 onslaught on Sunday from which the Knicks never recovered.

Indiana has been a scary postseason bet on the road, no doubt. Rick Carlisle's squad has gone 5-0 while scoring over 120 points per game at home, but just 1-4 with around 110 PPG away from Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Tuesday night could easily make or break Indy's chances at contending for the Eastern Conference title.

We get not wanting to place too big a stake in the Pacers at Madison Square Garden. However, Indy's success in the first quarter — home or away — suggests these plus odds yield plenty of value. The Pacers have only lost two first quarters in 10 chances this postseason, and they're +64 in the first quarter since Game 2 of their first-round series against the Bucks. 

FIRST QUARTER PREDICTION: Pacers 29, Knicks 27 — Indiana wins the first quarter (+105) and covers the +0.5 spread (-105), and the first-quarter total finishes OVER the projected total of 54.5 (-105). 

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Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top ATS pick 

Nuggets -4.5 vs. Timberwolves

The Wolves went and let the defending-champion Nuggets get right back into this series, and now Minnesota has a clear disadvantage heading back into altitude to face what should be a raucous Ball Arena crowd. How can any bettor trust Chris Finch's squad to win a third-straight game in Denver?

Newsflash: you can't. The Nuggets have cleaned up their sloppy play from earlier this series, they're winning the hustle points and crashing the boards, and they're making the Wolves pay for their mistakes. Three-time MVP Nikola Jokic has also put the pedal to the metal, increasing his aggressiveness with the ball in his hands, and Aaron Gordon has been effortlessly efficient.

But the biggest factor in the Nuggets' flipped switch has been their ability to get back to playing team basketball on both ends of the floor. They're helping and switching better on defense, putting more pressure on Anthony Edwards and forcing other Wolves to score. They're also moving the ball more effectively on offense, capitalizing on the weaker Minnesota defenders like Karl-Anthony Towns. 

Denver went 33-8 at home this season and 10-1 at Ball Arena in the 2023 NBA Playoffs. Minnesota breaking off two postseason wins in front of the Mile High crowd was already incredible — a third road upset of the reigning champions seems borderline impossible, especially with Jokic and company brimming with confidence and riding a momentum-fueled high.

Buy a point for some extra insurance if you want to breathe easier (Denver -2.5 is priced at just -140), but the -4.5 cover feels like a strong bet on its own. 

FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Nuggets 108, Wolves 102 — Denver wins (-185) and covers the -4.5 spread (-105), while the final score goes OVER the projected total of 206.5 (-115).

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Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top over/under bet

Nuggets OVER 25.5 (1Q) vs. Wolves (-120)

Denver has scored 28-plus points in each of the past two first quarters of this series, and those each took place in the Wolves' den (aka Target Center). Now the Nuggets get a chance to carry over momentum from those two road victories, not to mention make things up to the home crowd after laying an egg at Ball Arena in Games 1 and 2. 

Denver has averaged 30.1 first-quarter points per game at home since the start of the 2023-24 season, while Minnesota has allowed an average of 27.9 PPG in first frames. Look for Jokic and company to push tempo and put the Wolves on their heels early in this one. 

FIRST QUARTER PREDICTION: Nuggets 28, Wolves 24 — Denver wins the first quarter (-145), covers the -1.5 spread (+100), and goes over its 25.5-point first-quarter team total (-120) while the combined total for the quarter goes OVER 50.5 (-115).

Best NBA playoff odds and picks: Top player prop bet

Jalen Brunson points: UNDER 31.5 (-105)

Rick Carlisle and the Pacers have succeeded mightily with their plan to slow down red-hot Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson. In Games 3 and 4, the Pacers put the bigger, stronger Aaron Nesmith on Brunson. As a result, the Brunson Burner has cooled significantly, shooting just 16-of-43 and leaving a ton of shots short. The All-Star has hit just two of his past 11 attempts from three, after catching NBA Jam-like fire from three during his streak of 40-point games.

Brunson has also appeared hurt on multiple occasions during this series. It's well-known that he's playing through a foot issue, but he also twisted his ankle in Game 4 on Sunday. Between Nesmith locking him up, his foot and ankle issue potentially flaring up, and the absence of OG Anunoby likely putting pressure on him to force shots, this UNDER seems like the best player prop bet on the board this evening.

NBA playoff bets and spreads tonight: Full odds board

All odds courtesy of BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.

NBA Playoffs updated bracket