The 2024 NBA Playoffs surge forward into Friday featuring a triple-header of Game 3 action. All three games feature spreads of at least 4.5 points, so we must be extra careful with our betting picks for the night. We have identified four value opportunities on the BetMGM betting market so you can boost your bankroll going into the weekend.
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Tipping things off this evening, we'll see the Bucks and Pacers duking it out in Indiana (5:30 p.m. ET). Milwaukee punched Indy in the mouth in Game 1, but Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers battled back to force a series a split before heading homeward.
Also tied at 1-1, Clippers-Mavericks series begins anew in Dallas (8 p.m. ET). Los Angeles came out strong with a 12-point win in the series-opener, but Luka Doncic and the Mavs caught fire and eked out a win in Game 2 to even things up.
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Last but not least, the Timberwolves head southwest to try for a commanding 3-0 lead over Kevin Durant and the Suns (10 p.m. ET). Minnesota has owned this series, but we all know what kind of damage Devin Booker and Durant can inflict if they warm up in the Valley.
We could go on all day about storylines, but we're here to make some bets! Here's what we feel are the highest-value moneyline, spread, over/under and player prop wagers on the BetMGM betting market for Friday night's NBA playoff action.
Best NBA playoff bets and spreads tonight: Top ATS pick
Pacers -3.5 alternate spread vs. Bucks (-150)
With Giannis Antetokounmpo remaining out with a calf injury and Khris Middleton's Game 3 status jeopardized by an ankle issue, we like Pascal Siakam and the high-flying Pacers to capitalize and move out to a 2-1 series over the Bucks. We're taking on a little juice in order to buy a couple insurance points, but we really like Indy to prevail at home.
This game represents a golden opportunity for the Pacers, a young team simply cannot squander after spoiling the opponent's home-court advantage. A loss with Antetokounmpo out and Middleton either out or banged up would give momentum right back to Milwaukee and erase the Pacers' big road win in Game 2. A win would greatly increase Indy's chances of winning the series.
The blueprint to beating the Bucks has already been set by Rick Carlisle's squad this season. Push tempo, take care of the ball, force Damian Lillard and Malik Beasley to defend, and dominate the paint. Indy has checked off all the right boxes five of the seven times these teams have met, and we think Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, and company will do it again on Friday.
Indiana went 11 games over .500 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse this season, and the Pacers ranked in the top six in the NBA in wins and covers at home. Milwaukee, meanwhile, went 4-5 without Giannis this season. Indy should stay aggressive on Friday and keep the Bucks on the ropes with a solid victory in front of a raucous home crowd.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Pacers 116, Bucks 111 — Indiana wins (-225) and covers our -4.5 alternate spread (-150), while the score goes well OVER the total (221.5).
MORE: This is why the Pacers traded for Pascal Siakam
Best NBA playoff bets tonight: Top moneyline pick
Suns 1Q (-175) vs. Timberwolves
It's now-or-never for the Suns, who would be all but burned into oblivion if they came out flat on Friday and wound up down 3-0. We like Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and company to come out aggressive from the opening tip, giving the home crowd reason to believe Phoenix still has a shot.
Minnesota has been stifling on defense all season and during most of the young postseason. However, the Wolves allowed considerably more first-quarter scoring this season on the road (28.1 PPG on average) than they did at Target Center (26.5).
Phoenix also averaged 30 points per first quarter this season, and actually won the first quarter of Game 1 before Minnesota went on a rampage and trampled the Suns by 25. We're banking on the stars shining in the Valley of the Suns, and we're not afraid of a little juice on this very winnable game prop.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Suns 28, Wolves 25 — Phoenix wins the quarter (-175) and goes on to win the game (-185) by a margin of 107-104. The Wolves (+4.5) cover and the score finishes OVER the total (207.5).
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Best NBA playoff bets tonight: Top over/under pick
Clippers at Mavericks: UNDER 211.5 (-105)
This series looks like it's about to heat up, with Luka Doncic hitting a clutch three late in Game 2 to even the series up and yell triumphantly at the Clippers fans in attendance. However, we're pumping the brakes while many other hoops fans are probably smash-betting the OVER.
Kawhi Leonard did not look himself in his Game 2 return. Charles Barkley called him rusty — we say he's either still a little hurt or just a little out of shape. And Dallas has been a pretty unreliable team when it comes to the OVER this season.
The Mavs have maintained the third-worst OVER rate (37-49), the fourth-worst home OVER rate (16-25), and the fifth-worst OVER rate as a home favorite (11-17). Winning didn't help much, either — the OVER has gone just 19-31 in Dallas games that took place right after a win.
Long story short, the Mavs don't exactly carry over momentum from one game to the next, and they certainly don't light up the box score at home. With nobody really helping Luka and Kyrie Irving on one side and Kawhi struggling to regain his superstar form on the other, we're betting the UNDER in this one.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Mavericks 106, Clippers 103 — Dallas wins (-190) but L.A. covers the +4.5 spread (-105), and the game finishes UNDER the total (211.5).
Best NBA playoff bets tonight: Top player prop pick
Pascal Siakam points + rebounds — OVER 38.5 (-115)
Spicy P has been bringing the heat this postseason! Siakam racked up 36 points and 13 rebounds in Game 1, then encored that with 37 and 11 in Game 2. Even if his field-goal percentage dips considerably from his torrid 64.6-percent through two games (it will), we still like Siakam to destroy this combo prop in Game 3 with Giannis still sidelined.
Having Middleton sidelined or banged up just makes matters worse for Doc Rivers' squad, which has made Siakam look like the second-best player in the playoffs. Ride the lightning and back Spicy P to stay hot at home on Friday.
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