The Western Conference champion Nuggets will open up Game 1 of the 2023 NBA Finals tonight at home against the Eastern Conference champion Heat (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC). Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray will be looking to build off their tremendous performances in the Western Conference Finals when they led Denver to a four-game sweep over the Lakers.
Murray put on a show in the WCF, averaging 32.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists per game. He also shot 52.7 percent from the field and 40.5 percent from three-point range. The Nuggets are tough to beat when the dynamic point guard plays at that level. Murray will try to set the tone tonight at home against the upset-minded Heat, who are 3-0 in Game 1s in this year's NBA playoffs. For bettors looking to put down a couple of wagers on Murray's player props, they can do it on SuperDraft or BetMGM.
On SuperDraft, bettors can pick an over/under on two or more player props. If you hit both, you win up to 3X the amount wagered, and the return increases each time you add another prop. Think of it as a "Same Game Parlay." More legs equal more risk, but also a bigger potential payout. However, not all players have the same props, so keep that in mind as you pick your over/under plays and try to win some cash during tonight's game.
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One thing to keep in mind is that users can't play more than one prop for a single player in a SuperDraft entry. Therefore, we will spotlight some of our favorite SuperDraft props and a couple of player props you can bet on at BetMGM.
Jamal Murray SuperDraft Player Prop Picks for Heat-Nuggets Game 1
Jamal Murray OVER 25.5 points
For the Nuggets to hand the Heat their first loss in Game 1 this postseason, they need Murray to make his shots and put pressure on Miami's defense. Murray is scoring 27.7 points per game on 48 percent shooting from the field and 39.8 percent from three-point range in the postseason. The 26-year-old point guard is outplaying his regular season average (20 ppg) by a wide margin and has played well in Game 1s this postseason (29.6 points per game).
Murray has gone OVER 25.5 points in nine out of 15 postseason games, which is an excellent trend. Some bettors might be hesitant to take the OVER, as Murray only scored 14 points in his lone meeting against the Heat this season, but don't worry about that small of a sample size. Bettors should feel confident that Murray will have another solid outing in Game 1 and likely lead Denver to a win.
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Jamal Murray UNDER 5.5 assists
We believe that Murray's assists prop can go either way, as the Heat could force the ball out of his hands to make someone else beat them, or the young point guard goes into scorer mode. Murray is dishing out 6.1 assists per game this postseason and averaging 6.3 assists per game at home. Based on those numbers, the OVER seems like the slam dunk bet.
However, we see Murray dishing out the ball but only hitting four or five assists tonight, falling short in the series opener. Miami has only allowed 5.85 assists per game to point guards in their past seven playoff games. Murray will likely see a ton of Jimmy Butler on defense, who is not easy to blow by-and-dish, which could limit his assist opportunities.
Jamal Murray BetMGM Player Prop Bets for Heat-Nuggets Game 1
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Jamal Murray OVER 3.5 three-pointers made (+105)
If Murray is dialed in from beyond the arc tonight, the Nuggets will have a good chance at taking a 1-0 series lead. The star point guard is shooting 39.8 percent from deep and averaging 3.1 threes made per game on 7.9 attempts in the postseason. Murray is not only taking a bunch of three-pointers, but he's also hitting them at a respectable rate.
Murray has made more than 3.5 three-pointers in eight out of 15 games, but the Heat have been solid defensively against the three (32.5 percent). If Miami wants to force the ball out of Jokic's hands, it could lead to wide-open shots for Murray and Co. Along those same lines, another prop bet to consider is Murray to make five-plus threes (+225). He's made at least five threes in five playoff games, with four of those contests being at home.
Jamal Murray OVER 1.5 steals (+135)
When it comes to steals' props, most bettors are looking to hammer Jimmy Butler's OVER, as he's done well at jumping the passing lanes. However, do not sleep on Murray, who is posting 1.7 steals per game in the playoffs.
The 6-4 combo guard has gone OVER 1.5 steals in eight out of 15 games, including four games at home with at least two steals. The Heat have done a solid job of taking care of the ball, recording just 11.6 turnovers per game and only allowing 5.7 steals to opponents this postseason. It won't be an easy task for Murray to get his hands on the ball, but at +135, we'll take the risk.
