Last season’s Heat were a perfect example of why being mediocre is the toughest position for an NBA team to be in. While the Heat had the second-best record in the league from Jan. 17 onwards, it wasn’t enough for them to make the playoffs. Not only did that lower their chances of getting a high lottery pick in the draft, they lacked the financial flexibility to make significant upgrades to their roster in free agency. The combination meant they ran the risk of keeping a team together with a limited ceiling and few avenues to improve.
That didn’t mean there weren’t any opportunities for the Heat to improve their roster heading into this season. It simply meant they had to nail the rare opportunities they did have in the draft and free agency. It’s still too early to have a definitive answer — the contracts of Dion Waiters and James Johnson, for example, could come back to haunt them — but it looks like they at least made the right decision in selecting Bam Adebayo with the 14th pick in the 2017 NBA Draft.
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Although Adebayo doesn’t have the upside of fellow rookies Ben Simmons, Jayson Tatum or Donovan Mitchell, there’s no doubt he has a future in the NBA as a starting center. He’s a remarkable athlete and an elite defensive prospect who can do enough offensively at this stage of his development to stay on the floor. There is some skill overlap with Hassan Whiteside, but Adebayo has the potential to replace Whiteside when he becomes a free agent in 2020 — and possibly sooner if Whiteside turns down his player option following the 2018-2019 season, or if the Heat decide to trade him.
Adebayo might even be a better fit on this roster right now than Whiteside is. To understand why, let’s take a look at what the rookie has showcased on both ends of the court in the first 35 games of his NBA career.
An opportunistic scorer
The majority of Adebayo’s scoring in a Heat uniform has come on plays like this:
And this:
While Adebayo is built more like a modern power forward at 6-10 with a 7-1 wingspan, he has the skill set of a traditional center. Almost half of his points have come on a combination of pick-and-rolls and cuts this season, and he’s finished those plays at a rate of 1.24 points per possession. (Adebayo currently ranks in the 63.1 percentile with 1.14 points per pick-and-roll possession and the 62.8 percentile with 1.34 points per cut possession).
"He's a huge threat at the rim," Heat forward Kelly Olynyk said after a win over the Hornets last month. "Diving, screen-and-rolls, lobs, rebounds... Hopefully, [we can] try to get a little bit more spacing, and it just makes it tougher for guys to guard."
Adebayo’s dependence on those plays means he’s reliant on his teammates to create scoring opportunities for him — 70.7 percent of his baskets this season have been assisted — but it makes him a perfect fit alongside players who can collapse the defense off the dribble. It’s why it didn’t take him long to develop chemistry with Goran Dragic and Josh Richardson.
They have assisted on 24 of Adebayo’s 89 baskets this season, the bulk of which have come off dribble penetration. Whenever one of them is able to draw Adebayo’s defender away from him, they can lob the ball to the basket confidently knowing he’ll be in position to score.
"It's building chemistry. Every game building chemistry with my teammates," Adebayo said. "If they throw it up there and trust we're gonna go get it. Just having that trust in me, and me trusting them, that they're gonna throw it to me."
Basically anything outside of that is where Adebayo still has room to grow. He’s finished 63.9 percent of his shots in the restricted area this season off of a steady diet of layups and dunks, but he offers little value outside of the paint. His post-ups in particular have been problematic for the Heat, as he has scored a miserable 22 points on 29 post-up possessions.
It isn’t a large sample size, but Adebayo hasn’t looked comfortable scoring on face-ups and with his back to the basket on those limited possessions. His mind seems to be moving quicker than his feet, and he isn’t comfortable yet finishing plays with floaters and hook shots.
These are the sorts of plays that make you believe he could one day get there:
But plays like this make it clear how long he still has to go:
It would be nice for Adebayo to develop into the type of big man who can attack mismatches in the post, but it won’t necessarily prevent him from reaching his full potential as an offensive player it he doesn’t.
What would be more beneficial for him and the Heat is if he develops a decent jump shot. The numbers haven’t been great for Adebayo in that regard, but his jump shot isn’t broken. He has a smooth release for someone his size, and he’s already knocked down more jump shots in 35 games with the Heat (18) than he attempted in 38 games at Kentucky (13).
Another encouraging sign: Adebayo has made 75.3 percent of his free throw attempts in the NBA. Together, it gives him a solid foundation to work with as he continues to expand his offensive game.
The odds of Adebayo ever becoming the type of big man who can average between 15-20 points per game are slim, and yet he doesn’t have to improve much offensively to become a starter for a team like the Heat because of how well he complements playmakers. He can generate enough scoring for himself off rolls, cuts and putbacks — three plays that don’t require him to dominate the ball in any fashion — and he has the skill set to develop into a threat from midrange and on face-ups.
It’s generally what teams are looking for in a low usage center in today’s NBA.
An improving passer
One of the ways Adebayo can make up for his limitations as a scorer is with his passing. He currently leads all rookie centers with 49 assists, and he’s averaging 3.6 assists per 100 possessions on the season. The latter puts him ahead of a number of All-Star-caliber centers, including Karl-Anthony Towns (3.1), Anthony Davis (3.0) and Kevin Love (2.9).
A lot of Adebayo’s assists have come in the form of handoffs. Similar to how the Pistons have used Andre Drummond this season, the Heat like to give Adebayo the ball at the elbow and have him hand the ball off to a guard curling from the corner.
It opens up driving lanes for his teammates and forces the defense to account for Adebayo despite the fact that he struggles to create for himself outside of the paint. If they don’t, it can lead to uncontested opportunities for the ball handler curling off his screen.
Adebayo is strictly a facilitator in those situations for now, but the hope is he will eventually be able to make plays for himself when the defense anticipates the pass. He certainly has the potential to do so, as he displayed on this possession against the Mavericks:
Adebayo has showcased the ability to make the right reads on short rolls and out of the post, too, which are two things he struggled to do consistently at Kentucky. It makes him an easy player to integrate into a motion-based offense because he can find open cutters and shooters when the defense collapses.
It also separates him from Whiteside, whose career-high in assists in a single season is 57. Whereas Whiteside has the reputation of being a ball stopper when he catches the ball in the post and at the elbows, Adebayo’s quick decision-making helps keep the offense flowing.
There are still times when Adebayo forces a tough shot instead of making the right pass, but he’s already reading the floor better than he did at Kentucky. Assuming he still has room to grow, it raises his floor considerably as an offensive player.
A terrifyingly versatile defender
Everything you need to know about Adebayo’s defensive potential begins with this video:
By popular demand, Bam Adebayo vs. Butler, LeBron and Curry.
— Couper Moorhead (@CoupNBA) December 4, 2017
More to defense than these isolated events, but they sure are some impressive flashes for a rookie center. pic.twitter.com/3fFSWS8uog
That’s a 6-10 center stopping three MVP candidates in Jimmy Butler, LeBron James and Stephen Curry. There aren’t many players Adebayo’s size who have the lateral quickness, strength and discipline to keep up with each of those players, which speaks to how unique of a prospect he is.
While he won’t match up with those players for an entire game, Adebayo can switch onto them when needed and hold his own, giving him the ability to stay on the court against the types of smaller lineups that are taking over the league.
"I see it in practice," Dragic told Heat.com’s Couper Moorhead about Adebayo’s defense. "He can stay in front of guys, points guards, two guards, three guards. He’s athletic enough and he’s great at contesting those shots."
Adebayo’s versatility makes him an ideal fit in Erik Spoelstra’s system. He can use his speed and length to swarm ball handlers in pick-and-rolls and recover to his assignment before they can get off a clean look.
He’s even shown some potential as a rim protector. In addition to the 21 blocks he’s recorded in 35 games, opponents have made only 44 of their 85 shot attempts within six feet of the basket when Adebayo has been the paint. That mark puts him on the same page as some of the best rim protectors in the league.
Adebayo won’t likely sustain those numbers as he gets more minutes against better competition — the likes of Rudy Gobert, Jordan Bell and Joel Embiid have defended far more shots at the rim than Adebayo to this point of the season — but it’s clear he has the tools to anchor a defense as a full-time center.
It helps that Adebayo has also held his own against several All-Star big men this season. He was directly involved in five of Dwight Howard’s season-high nine turnovers in their Dec. 1 matchup, and he helped limit Anthony Davis to 17 points on 5-for-11 shooting three weeks later (albeit in a game the Heat lost by 15 points).
Adebayo proved that he has the strength to keep up with those players in one-on-one situations, as well as the length and athleticism to make them uncomfortable around the basket.
Adebayo hasn’t been flawless on defense, but he’s made about as much of an impact on that end of the floor as one could expect from a 20-year-old rookie center selected in the middle of the draft.
He’s already had success switching onto some of the best perimeter players in the league, and he’s protected the rim well enough to have confidence in his ability to log more minutes at center moving forward. The list of players who can do both of those things at a high level isn’t very long, and it’s headlined by Draymond Green and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Will Abebayo ever be the type of All-NBA defenders they are? Maybe not. But they are the sort of players he should be modeling his game after on defense.
What to watch for next
Defense is always going to be Adebayo’s calling card, so how he develops on that end of the floor is going to be incredibly important for him. His ability to switch onto smaller players gives him the tools to be an impact defender in today’s NBA.
How well he protects the rim and controls the glass, however, could ultimately be what determines his success as a starting center. Those were two of his biggest weaknesses entering the 2017 NBA Draft, and they could become a factor once again as his playing time increases.
As for offense, Adebayo still has a long way to go. There is certainly value in the vertical spacing he provides, but not being a scoring threat outside of the paint means he has to be surrounded by four shooters at all times.
It’s why developing a midrange jump shot would open up his game tremendously. It would give the Heat the flexibility of turning Adebayo into a power forward depending on the matchup, and it would put less pressure on him to become an elite rim protector because he could, in theory, play alongside a more traditional big man. (The Heat’s offensive rating in the 35 minutes Adebayo and Whiteside have played together this season? A horrifying 95.6).
There is a possibility Adebayo never develops a jump shot and never becomes the type of big man who can anchor a defense, but he’s already shown enough this season to believe he will get there one day. And if he does, there’s a strong chance he’ll go down as the biggest steal in the 2017 NBA Draft.
