The 76ers and Heat, two perennial Eastern Conference contenders with identical 37-30 records, face off in Philadelphia this evening. We'll get you prepped to bet on this east-coast clash, highlighting the odds and showcasing our best bets and top props.
Both of these teams have been bitten by the injury bug this season, but Philly has been particularly downtrodden since reigning MVP Joel Embiid's meniscus injury. The Sixers have gone just 8-13 in the 21 games he has missed with the ailment, which required surgery.
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Jimmy Butler and the Heat, meanwhile, seem to be just coasting toward the playoffs. They have split their last 10 games and have gone an underwhelming 17-15 at home. They do, however, have a modest two-game winning streak, a 25-17 record against conference opponents and a 20-15 road record.
Will Miami's success on the road and against Eastern Conference foes continue? Or, will Tyrese Maxey and the Sixers hold court and give the Heat a brotherly shove? Let's get right to the odds, then discuss the stats and trends to know as well as our best bets and top props from BetMGM.
76ers vs. Heat prediction, player props, best bets against the spread and moneyline
All odds and props are from BetMGM, an authorized gaming operator of the NBA.
- ATS: 76ers -2.5 (-105) | Heat +2.5 (-115)
- Moneyline: 76ers -140 | Heat +115
- Over/under: O 209.5 (-105) | U 209.5 (-115)
Not surprisingly, the 76ers enter the week as modest home favorites. Miami has gone just 2-6 against the spread over its past eight games. However, it's worth noting that the Heat are 6-1 ATS in their past seven games against Philly, while the Sixers are just 6-13-1 ATS over their past 20.
How low can you go!? We don't see 209.5 very often anymore, but there's good reason for BetMGM to be going limbo low. The UNDER has hit in six straight Miami games and five straight Philly games.
76ers vs. Heat prediction, best bets
The Sixers have looked downstream without a paddle since Joel Embiid went down, and Tobias Harris (ankle) being considered questionable doesn't help matters. Philadelphia flat-out does not have enough offense. They did beat Charlotte 109-98 on Saturday, but that's a 17-win Hornets team without LaMelo Ball that has the worst net rating in the NBA. With JoJo, that's a 30-point dub.
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Don't read too much into the status of Jimmy Butler (foot). We don't see the Heat losing tonight in Wells Fargo Center with or without its best player. The Sixers still have no answer for Bam Adebayo and they will probably take some bumps and bruises from the ever-feisty Terry Rozier as well as sharpshooter Duncan Robinson (the quickest in NBA history to 1,000 threes!).
These teams may have identical records, but who are you taking in an Erik Spoelstra vs. Nick Nurse chess match? Miami has won four of its past five games without Butler and that includes road meetings with this same Sixers team (2/14), Milwaukee and Sacramento. On the season, the Heat have gone 13-7 without Emo Butler.
"Heat culture" is alive and well, and this is the part of the season that Miami starts to get white-hot and laser-focused. Bottle up Maxey and don't let Kelly Oubre or Buddy Hield get wide open looks and Spo's got an easy dub, which Miami has been stacking up on the road and against Eastern Conference opponents all season long. Don't overthink it, folks — the better, deeper team with superior coaching will win this one.
FINAL SCORE PREDICTION: Heat 109, 76ers 104 — The Heat win (-140) and cover (-2.5), and the score finishes well OVER the projected total (209.5).
76ers vs. Heat: Top player prop bet
Tobias Harris points — OVER 16.5 (-120)
If Harris suits up, Nurse will need him to be active early and often on the offensive side of the court. He dropped 27 on the Heat the one time he faced them this season and with Butler out or limited he should be able to get to 17 pretty easily. The true threat in Philly is Maxey, so we expect Spoelstra to put plenty of pressure on the ball, leaving Harris with some open three-point opportunities and possibly even the occasional driving lane. Bet this OVER with the same confidence we have in the Heat winning this game.
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