The 2023 NBA Finals are officially set, as the Eastern Conference champion Heat will take on the Western Conference champion Nuggets on Thursday night in Game 1 (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC). Denver is looking for its first title in franchise history, while Miami is trying to win its first championship since 2013. In addition to the intrigue surrounding the series in general, fans and bettors alike have already shown plenty of interest in the latest odds for Finals MVP.
After sweeping the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals, Nikola Jokic's odds went from +325 to -185. Jokic was a good bet at that numbers, as his odds figured to rise closer to the Finals. Sure enough, Jokic now sits at -350 to win Finals MVP, providing little to no value for bettors. However, it's not set in stone that Jokic will win it, as Jamal Murray and Jimmy Butler are star players in their own right and will make a ton of game-changing plays in this series.
Below, we'll look at the latest odds from BetMGM for Finals MVP and discuss a couple of sleepers on each team that bettors should watch out for in this series.
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2023 NBA Finals MVP Odds
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Player | Odds |
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets | -350 |
Jimmy Butler, Heat | +350 |
Jamal Murray, Nuggets | +1200 |
Caleb Martin, Heat | +4000 |
Bam Adebayo, Heat | +5000 |
Michael Porter Jr., Nuggets | +20000 |
Aaron Gordon, Nuggets | +20000 |
Bruce Brown, Nuggets | +25000 |
Max Strus, Heat | +25000 |
Gabe Vincent, Heat | +25000 |
Kyle Lowry, Heat | +25000 |
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Nuggets | +50000 |
Kevin Love, Heat | +50000 |
NBA Finals MVP 2023 Odds: Favorites
![Nikola Jokic Nikola Jokic](https://library.sportingnews.com/styles/crop_style_16_9_desktop_webp/s3/2023-05/nba-plain--68349fe6-e2f1-471f-a708-53c980ecefde.png.webp)
Nikola Jokic, Nuggets (-350). Jokic is still the overwhelming betting favorite to win Finals MVP (-350) ahead of Game 1. The two-time league MVP is receiving 38.5 percent of the handle and 23.3 percent of the tickets, according to BetMGM Insights.
Jokic is coming off an outstanding performance in the Western Conference Finals where he averaged a triple-double (27.8 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 11.8 assists per game), something he's doing for the entire playoffs. The 28-year-old center needs just one more standout series to etch his name in history with Shaquille O'Neal (2001-02), Dirk Nowitzki, and Tim Duncan (2004-05), who are the only big men to win Finals MVP this century.
That said, there's little value in wagering on his odds right now. He's an overwhelming favorite for a reason, and you're better off waiting for Game 1 to see if someone else (Murray, Butler) has a huge performance, which could slightly drop Jokic's odds. At that point, he might be worth betting, but -350 is too long for a futures bet like this.
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![Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin](https://library.sportingnews.com/styles/crop_style_16_9_desktop_webp/s3/2023-05/Jimmy%20Butler%20Caleb%20Martin%20053023.jpg.webp)
Jimmy Butler, Heat (+350). Bettors missed their opportunity to get even better value on Butler's Finals MVP odds, as they were at +1400 before the Eastern Conference Finals began. Now, Butler sits at +350, which makes sense given that he's the best player on the overwhelming underdog.
The 33-year-old wing won Eastern Conference MVP after the Heat took down the Celtics by 19 in Game 7. Butler had 28 points, seven rebounds, and six assists in the series-clinching victory, and for the series, he averaged 24.7 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 6.1 assists. For Butler wants to win Finals MVP, he will need to have a similar output while leading the Heat to a series victory.
We know Butler is capable of going off and slaying a top seed, though. He was the best player on the floor in Round 1 against the Bucks, recording 37.6 points per game on 59.7 percent shooting from the field and 44.4 percent from deep. He also added six rebounds and four assists per game. If the Heat can win and shock the world again with Butler leading the way, he should lock up Finals MVP, making him worth a small wager if you have any faith in Miami. After all, you're getting better odds than betting the Heat +310 to win the series.
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![Jamal Murray Denver Nuggets Jamal Murray Denver Nuggets](https://library.sportingnews.com/styles/crop_style_16_9_desktop_webp/s3/2023-05/Jamal%20Murray%20Denver%20Nuggets.jpg.webp)
Jamal Murray, Nuggets (+1200). Bettors should not sleep on the 26-year-old point guard to win Finals MVP after what we saw from him in the Western Conference Finals. Murray dropped 32.5 points per game on 52.7 percent shooting from the field and 40.5 percent from beyond the arc.
He had a lot of star-making moments throughout the WCF, carrying the Nuggets in the second half of Game 2 and first half of Game 3. Overall, Murray has produced seven 30-point games in the playoffs and figures to add a few more highlight-filled nights, especially if the Heat try to limit Jokic's scoring opportunities. Murray has 12/1 odds because of Jokic's sheer dominance, but if he scores 30-35 points in Games 1 or 2, his odds will dramatically shift. Hitting a few clutch shots will help Murray's case to win Finals MVP, as we know Jokic and Butler are locks for impressive all-around stat lines. It wouldn't be a shock to see Murray lead the Nuggets in scoring as he did in the WCF, so a modest wager on him makes sense.
NBA Finals MVP 2023 Odds: Sleepers
![Caleb Martin / Miami Heat Caleb Martin / Miami Heat](https://library.sportingnews.com/styles/crop_style_16_9_desktop_webp/s3/2022-07/GettyImages-1380959715_0.jpg.webp)
Caleb Martin, Heat (+4000). Martin has emerged as the Heat's most consistent offensive player in the playoffs outside of Jimmy Butler. The 27-year-old wing surprisingly has better odds for Finals MVP than Bam Adebayo (+5000).
Martin shined in the Eastern Conference Finals and outplayed Butler at various points, but he barely missed out on ECF MVP. However, he averaged 19.8 points and 6.4 rebounds per game and shot 60.2 percent from the field and 48.9 percent from three-point range. If the Heat pull off another massive upset, Martin will likely play a significant role with his scoring and ability to knock down clutch shots from the perimeter. If you like the Heat to prevail in this series, you could do a lot worse with your money than putting down a small wager on Martin.
![Michael Porter Jr. Michael Porter Jr. 122122](https://library.sportingnews.com/styles/crop_style_16_9_desktop_webp/s3/2022-12/GettyImages-1244887355%20%281%29.jpg.webp)
Michael Porter Jr., Nuggets (+20000). Porter Jr. is one of the more notable long shots to win Finals MVP and has worse odds than Caleb Martin and Adebayo. With Jokic and Murray in control of Denver's offense most of the time, fans and bettors alike forget about Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon in the starting lineup.
Porter Jr. hasn't put up the flashiest stat lines this postseason, averaging 14.6 points and 8.6 rebounds per game. However, he can drop 20-plus points in a blink of an eye while easily putting up a double-double. In the Western Conference Finals against the Lakers, the 24-year-old posted three double-doubles and gave L.A. fits on the glass. For Porter Jr. to win Finals MVP, the Nuggets will need him to grab boards, make a few big defensive plays (most likely weak-side blocks), and knock down several clutch threes. He's shot 40.8 percent from deep in the playoffs but will be facing a Heat squad that allows opponents to shoot just 32.5 percent from the outside. Denver will be looking for MPJ to buck that trend and be one of their top scorers, as the Heat are a complete team and will do everything in their power to limit Murray and Jokic. If anything happens to either during the series, MPJ will have to step up and help carry the offense, giving him a slim chance of taking home the hardware.