It's shaping up to be a busy offseason for the New York Knicks.
The 2024 NBA Draft is less than a week away. The Knicks own three total picks, but are reportedly exploring trade scenarios.
Additionally, free agency figures to be a hectic time. The Knicks have key free agents in OG Anunoby and Isaiah Hartenstein that they hope to re-sign, and some needs on the bench that need addressing if they can land free agents.
The Knicks are also reportedly shopping for another star to land in a trade to get the Knicks closer to championship contention. The Knicks have a surplus of future first-round picks, plus trade-able contracts, that put them in the mix should the right superstar become available.
With the offseason ready to kick into motion, we're making some predictions on how the Knicks' summer will unfold. This is not based on inside information or own reporting — just deduction from already-public reporting, rumors, and our own gut feelings.
Here are our predictions for how the Knicks' draft, free agency, and trades might shape up.
The Knicks trade their two first-round picks and keep their second round pick
The Knicks are widely expected to trade at least one of their three picks, particularly one of their back-to-back first-round picks. In what many draft experts believe is a weak draft, it's hard to see Leon Rose — who has been very active in drafts past — standing pat.
Trading the two first-round picks can save the Knicks some money this year, plus net them future assets to use in a trade for a star.
With their second-rounder, we see them targeting a wing who can add some defense and athleticism. Perhaps Kansas forward Kevin McCullar?
The Knicks pick up Bojan Bogdanovic's contract
It just makes sense. Bogdanovic's $19 million expiring contract is a good trade chip. At worst, he's a seventh/eighth man who can spread the floor. He was perking up in the playoffs before his injury and will be more comfortable after a full training camp.
OG Anunoby re-signs with the Knicks for 4 years, $170 million
One thing is for sure about Anunoby: he has leverage. He is an elite 3-and-D wing, plays an in-demand role, and was traded to a Knicks team that has no way to replace him if he leaves. The Knicks are almost backed into a corner to re-sign him.
It's been estimated that Anunoby's next contract will pay him between a $35 million starting salary to his max. The Athletic's Fred Katz has said he wouldn't be surprised to see Anunoby making $40 million per year.
Thus, our prediction puts him at a starting salary of $40 million for 2024-25, with $2.5 million increases each season. It's not quite his max of four years, $181 million, but it's close, which feels just right for an elite role player who is just shy of being a true star.
It's possible the Knicks offer Anunoby the exclusive fifth year on a contract, but a four-year deal lets Anunoby hit free agency again at 31 years old, at a time when the salary cap will be rising.
Isaiah Hartenstein re-signs with the Knicks for 4 years, $72.5 million
Despite rumors that Hartenstein could get more from a team trying to pry him away from the Knicks, it's hard to see the perfect fit. The Oklahoma City Thunder need size, but their future is playing five-out with Chet Holmgren at center. Would they really tie up so much money to land a role player who will not always be on the floor? Would Hartenstein really leave New York for that type of situation, even if it pays more? OKC's history of luring free agents is not extensive.
Finding another team is even harder. Philadelphia needs a reliable Joel Embiid backup, but cannot afford to tie up so much cap space on a backup. The Orlando Magic have a lot of size already. Would Hartenstein really leave a winning situation in New York for a rebuilding situation in Detroit?
Hartenstein said he would have re-signed with the LA Clippers for less money in 2022 because they were the first team to give him a real role. That type of mindset might be a hint that Hartenstein prefers to stay in New York, where he's comfortable, as long as a suitable pay raise follows.
The Knicks' biggest offseason addition is ... Kris Dunn
The Knicks need another ball-handler to steady the team when Jalen Brunson sits. While Miles McBride had an excellent 2023-24 season, he is more of a 3-and-D player in a guard's body.
Enter Dunn, who has had a resurgence with the Utah Jazz. He's a stout defender, an improved shooter, and a decent playmaker — someone who's racked up surprisingly high assist numbers in fairly limited minutes.
It's a not a thrilling signing, but if the Knicks keep their own free agents, their rotation will already run nine-deep anyway.
This means...
The Knicks don't make a superstar trade this summer
There just isn't a perfect fit.
The Phoenix Suns aren't ready to blow it up. Karl-Anthony Towns has not proven to be a star worth going all-in for. Jimmy Butler is turning 35, injury-prone, and has an iffy history with Tom Thibodeau. It's hard to see Paul George leaving the Clippers — or the Clippers letting him go as they enter their new arena. There are no signs Giannis Antetokounmpo wants out of Milwaukee.
The Knicks have hoarded assets and built their team up carefully and patiently. Though making a trade will get harder as the team gets more expensive, the Knicks don't have to make a move.
They ultimately wait for the February trade deadline, giving it more time for a star to grow unhappy.
Jalen Brunson signs his extension and Julius Randle does not
It's been reported that Brunson is willing to sign a four-year, $156 million extension with the Knicks — which is far less than he could get if he waited to hit free agency.
Brunson has played it coy in interviews this offseason, asking "what extension?" or saying he doesn't know what reporters are talking about when they bring it up.
Still, Brunson has a chance to lock in a major pay raise and help the Knicks build. He's demonstrated he's a team-first player before. In an interview with Bleacher Report's Taylor Rooks, Brunson said he wanted to sign an extension with the Dallas Mavericks in 2021-22 so he could be financially secure. As a small guard who just carried a heavy load in the playoffs, Brunson might not want to wait to secure his first max deal.
Randle's extension figures to be trickier. Is he a max player? Randle certainly has the right to argue that he is one, based on making two more All-Star Games and an All-NBA team in the time since he signed a four-year, $117 million extension in 2021.
Randle surely saw the discourse about how the Knicks could have made the Eastern Conference Finals if they were healthy — he was the lone piece to miss the entire postseason.
But for the Knicks, it may be tough to offer Randle a max when they also want to extend Brunson and look for another star via trade. And there are questions about Randle's long-term fit with the team.
Randle's situation seems easier to sort out after another season.
Tom Thibodeau signs his extension ... closer to training camp
Thibodeau is eligible for an extension and has said he wants to remain in New York. It seems like a no-brainer: he has led a Knicks revival and seems to have great chemistry with the team's top players.
It's been surprising, then, that it hasn't happened yet. Money shouldn't be much of an issue: coaching salaries are skyrocketing, and Thibodeau has proven he is an above-average coach who should be in line for a market pay day.
This is just a guess: Perhaps the hold-up is around the number of years and any incentive-based bonuses, like how far the Knicks make it in the playoffs. As we've just outlined, the Knicks have a big offseason. Perhaps Thibodeau and the Knicks want to see how the offseason shakes out, whether they bring back their key free agents, before agreeing to an extension and hammering out incentives. Again, just a guess.
Ultimately, it seems likely to get done before the start of next season.
