The New York Knicks were dealt a blow this week when it was reported that Mitchell Robinson will not be ready for the start of the season as he recovers from May foot surgery.
The Knicks are reportedly targeting a December or January return for Robinson, depending on how his rehab progresses.
While the news just became public this week, it's likely not news to the Knicks. The Athletic's Fred Katz said on his "Katz and Shoot" podcast that the Knicks had not been thrilled with Robinson's rehab progress this offseason.
The Knicks reportedly feel confident in their roster and its depth in Robinson's absence.
Still, it's worth wondering if Robinson has already played his last game with the Knicks.
The Knicks center depth is now worrisome
Robinson's absence has a surprisingly large ripple effect on the rest of the roster.
Without Robinson, the Knicks are suddenly smaller, thinner, and missing their best rim protector and rebounder. Robinson's absence will especially be felt when it comes to the Knicks' staunch offensive rebounding.
Read more: Why Mitchell Robinson could be the Knicks' biggest X-factor this season
Without Robinson, the Knicks will rely on Jericho Sims and Precious Achiuwa to man the center position. Sims is a hyper-athletic center, but still raw and unproven. Achiuwa is more polished, but slightly undersized to play center full-time.
The Knicks have teased "small-ball" lineups with Julius Randle and OG Anunoby manning the middle, but those lineups would be more effective in small doses. Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau even said in an interview with NBA.com that too many center minutes would be physically taxing on Randle, who — it should be noted — is coming off shoulder surgery and may also not be ready for opening night in one month.
Thibodeau, by the way, did not once mention Robinson in that interview with NBA.com, even when asked how the Knicks will make up for Isaiah Hartenstein's departure.
Relying on Robinson to get healthy could be dangerous for the Knicks. On "The Lowe Post" podcast, SNY's Ian Begley guessed that Robinson would more likely return in January than December because of Robinson's injury history and the complexity of rehabbing a lower-body injury for a big man.
Even if Robinson returned on January 1, the Knicks would still be faced with the uncomfortable notion of relying on Robinson to stay healthy for the remainder of the season, including a potentially deep postseason run. Robinson's injury history suggests that that is unlikely.
Robinson is one of the Knicks' few trade asets
The Knicks also don't have many paths to a trade. Because of New York's salary cap standing, they have to send out more money in a deal than they take in. However, the Knicks have relatively few salaries they'd be willing to send out in a deal. Assuming the 'Nova Knicks and OG Anunoby are untouchable, that leaves Randle ($28.9 million), Robinson ($14.3 million), Achiuwa ($6 million), and Miles McBride ($4.3 million) as the only non-minimum salaries that could fetch a rotation-worthy center.
The Knicks reportedly have no interest in trading Randle if it makes them worse — finding a sensible trade for a center who could replicate Randle's value is nearly impossible.
Achiuwa is not trade-eligible until January. Even if the Knicks combined his salary with McBride's in a deal, they'd be looking at centers who make less than $10.7 million this season. There aren't many impact players at that salary-level, and it's unclear if the Knicks would want to get rid of two rotation players for one.
That leaves Robinson and his $14.3 million salary as a key trade chip that widens the pool of players the Knicks could target. There are some interesting centers making less than Robinson this year, like Robert Williams III on the Portland Trail Blazers and Steven Adams on the Houston Rockets (though both of those players also come with injury concerns).
Read more: Seven centers who could be Knicks trade targets for in-season deal
Robinson, of course, has little trade value now. He is an injured center with two years remaining on his contract. He is set to make $12.9 million next year, so his declining salary is not as burdensome for another team to take on.
This is where the Knicks face another quandary: they have few assets left to trade. The Knicks cannot trade any of their own first-round picks. They have two highly protected 2025 first-round picks via the Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards. The Knicks can also swap first-round picks with another team in 2026 or 2030.
Would any of that be enough to entice a team to take on Robinson? It's unclear. The Knicks won't exactly be negotiating from a position of strength.
The Knicks have been involved in trade rumors for centers all offseason. They already seemed likely to make a move to enhance their depth.
Now it's worth wondering if they'll make a move sooner to find a new starting center entirely.
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