Isaiah Hartenstein is set to get paid in free agency, this much we know.
The 26-year-old Hartenstein had a breakout season with the New York Knicks, averaging 8.7 points, 9.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, and 1.3 blocks after filling in as a starter for the injured Mitchell Robinson. Hartenstein's touch in the paint, passing, rebounding, and rim protection was vital for the Knicks' best season in a decade.
Now, as an unrestricted free agent, Hartenstein is set to "break the bank," as Jalen Brunson said.
Coming off a two-year, $16 million with the Knicks, Hartenstein is set to multiply that by several factors. But just how much will he get?
Because the Knicks only have Hartenstein's Early Bird Rights, they are limited in what they can pay him — a starting salary of $16.2 million in 2024-25 and a maximum offer of four years, $72.5 million.
Meanwhile, other suitors can pay more, and it appears there are other suitors.
Yahoo's Jake Fischer reported that some in the NBA believe Hartenstein may command a contract worth $80-100 million this offseason.
Stefan Bondy of The New York Post reported that the Oklahoma City Thunder, armed with $35 million in cap space, have "real" interest in Hartenstein. NBC's Kurt Helin followed up that report by saying some believe bidding for Hartenstein will "start" at four years, $80 million.
Harteinstein has said he wants to re-sign with the Knicks — how much will it take to pry him away?
Would the Thunder really give a big, four-year contract to Hartenstein?
Of the teams with cap space, the Thunder seem like the most realistic team to pry Hartenstein away. They can offer Hartenstein big money, a starting role, and a winning situation.
Other cap space teams that are poised to make the playoffs next year, like the Philadelphia 76ers and Orlando Magic, offer winning situations, but have more pressing needs than a big man.
And while teams like the Detroit Pistons could attempt to wow Hartenstein with an offer, would he really opt to go to a losing situation (and would spending $25 million per year on a role-playing center really be Detroit’s best use of cap space?).
So, we’re back to the Thunder.
It’s also worth wondering if making Hartenstein a massive offer is worthwhile for the Thunder.
The playoffs showed OKC needs size and rebounding — Hartenstein certainly offers both. But the Thunder’s future is likely heading toward playing Chet Holmgren at center in five-out lineups. Holmgren needs to add muscle and strength to be a full-time center, so Hartenstein would still have a role in the short-term. But eventually, it seems, Holmgren will become a full-time center, or at least play the majority of his minutes at center. That leaves Hartenstein with a reduced role in the near future.
And while Oklahoma City needs size and rebounding, it can come cheaper than the $80-100 million it may cost to get Hartenstein away from New York. Hartenstein proved he's an above-average starting center this year, but with the Thunder roster set to get expensive in the coming years as their young core becomes extension-eligible, it may not be wise for OKC to commit $20 million-plus per year through 2028 for what is essentially a role player.
A rich, short-term contract offer for Hartenstein could be key
Where the Thunder — and other teams — could potentially gain an advantage is with a rich, short-term offer.
With the Knicks limited in what they can offer Hartenstein, other teams could swoop in with a massive, short-term offer.
Could the Thunder offer a two-year, $50 million deal? Two years, $60 million? Three years, $75 million? Three years, $85 million, with a player option?
This is where teams could potentially hurt the Knicks. Not only could another team outbid them in total money, they can offer more per year while allowing Hartenstein to dip his toes back into free agency before he turns 30 to get another big contract. And for the Thunder, it allows them to upgrade at center in the short-term without sacrificing their long-term cap sheet.
(It is unclear, however, if that route would appeal to Hartenstein – he may want the long-term security of a four-year deal after playing on short contracts through the first six years of his career.)
The Knicks could attempt to do the same, offering something like a three-year, $54 million contract with a player option, which would grant Hartenstein a hearty raise and the same opportunity to sign another big deal in free agency in two years. At that point the Knicks would have his Full Bird Rights and could offer him anything up to the max.
Even then, if this situation were to play out, it would still require Hartenstein taking a discount to stay in New York. It’s not out of the question; the Knicks offered Hartenstein a nice contract two years ago, when he said he was willing to re-sign with the LA Clippers for less money. Hartenstein became a fan-favorite in two years, took the starting job and never relinquished it, and experienced the highs of a winning season in New York. (How about roaring to the crowd after a game-saving offensive rebound and contest at the rim in Game 2 vs. the 76ers?).
However the situation plays out, it seems likely that the Knicks will have to bank on Hartenstein enjoying the vibes in New York so much that he wants to stay. Either way, it’s a great position for Hartenstein to be in after a career year.
