Succession in the NBA is as peaceful as a coup d’etat.
It looks like the athleticism of a highlight-worthy dunk and the brash flexing afterward. It looks like young and athletic wings imposing their will on both sides of the floor. It looks like big shot after big shot in the faces of the NBA’s incumbent elite.
It looks like Anthony Edwards going at Kevin Durant and sweeping his Phoenix Suns out of the playoffs.
Edwards and his Minnesota Timberwolves are rolling right now and looking like a legitimate threat to the Denver Nuggets’ chances to repeat as champs. With their length, depth, and firepower, the Timberwolves have more than a puncher’s chance in this second-round match up. Here are the keys to a Minnesota upset.
Lockdown Defense On The ‘Others’
Defense in the NBA is about effort but also what a team is willing to concede and live with, and what a team can take away. The best approach to defending the Nuggets is making Nikola Jokic work while containing the others.
The Timberwolves may be sixth in postseason defensive rating (109.3) but they’ve had the most formidable defense of any team in the playoffs thus far. Minnesota was able to hold Phoenix to an offensive rating of 100.
After the free throw, notice how Edwards guards Bradley Beal: relentless and unyielding pressure. Beal could barely advance the ball.
At the 16-second mark, look at how Nickeil Alexander-Walker guarded Devin Booker. NAW was in Booker’s shirt from the entry pass inbounds to midcourt, forcing the turnover. Booker couldn’t even pass because of Alexander-Walker’s disruptive length.
The Wolves’ half-court defense is just as disruptive.
There was a time when Rudy Gobert was food on the perimeter. Guards could draw him out of the paint and cook. However, that’s not the case anymore. In this video, Beal can’t beat Gobert off the dribble here and swings a pass to Booker. Alexander-Walker is hounding Booker once again, but this time he also does a late switch with Gobert and forces another turnover.
With the Wolves’ size, length, and versatility, expect to see a heavy dose of man coverage with switches. Also, expect a combination of Alexander-Walker and Jaden McDaniels defending Jamal Murray and running him off the three-point line and into the help.
The Sustainability of Edwards’ Efficiency
In Game 1 against the Suns, Edwards went on a personal 18-point run in the third quarter. Perhaps most impressive about that stretch was the amount of pull-up jumpers he made. For the series, Edwards shot 51.2% from two and 43.8% from three. The Suns’ defense didn’t have an answer for Edwards, as he was able to get to his spots with little to no resistance.
The Nuggets are also a solid defensive team and most of their attention will be on Edwards. Expect Denver to take away the paint and make Edwards beat them from outside.
If Edwards can replicate the same efficiency he had during the Suns series, the Timberwolves will have a legit shot to beat the Nuggets.
Taking Advantages Of Mismatches
The Nuggets will have to decide who will guard Edwards and how to approach that matchup. If the Nuggets play man coverage, it might open up opportunities to feast in the paint.
Hypothetically, let’s say Aaron Gordon guards Edwards. Gordon on Edwards has the possibility of conceding size on the backside. If this is the case, Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns would have size advantages, and the Timberwolves would have a huge advantage in the paint.
Minnesota’s offense could also make a point to attack Murray with not only Gobert and KAT in low-man situations, but with Edwards, McDaniels, and Walker-Alexander.
Game 1 between the Nuggets and Wolves tips off tonight at 7 p.m. ET.
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