How injuries to Giannis, Embiid, stars could define 2024 NBA playoffs

C Jackson Cowart

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How injuries to Giannis, Embiid, stars could define 2024 NBA playoffs image

For a moment, it looked like Zion Williamson might be the breakout star of the 2024 NBA playoffs.

With all eyes on the New Orleans Pelicans in Tuesday's play-in contest against the Los Angeles Lakers, the oft-injured forward was on the court for his team's biggest game of the season — and he was unstoppable. Through 45 minutes, he had scored a season-high 40 points in his first taste of postseason action, which came on the heels of his most games played in the regular season (70) since he was drafted No. 1 overall in 2019.

By now, you surely know what happened next: Williamson left the game with a hamstring injury that will cost him at least two weeks, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, including Friday's elimination game against the Sacramento Kings.

The next day, Miami Heat star Jimmy Butler suffered an MCL sprain that will sideline him for Friday's do-or-die game against his former team in the Chicago Bulls.

Those two join a growing list of marquee players who won't be suiting up for the opening round of the NBA playoffs. Of the eight series tipping off this weekend, half of them could feature a team without its top scorer, which doesn't count the myriad stars playing through injuries that could ultimately decide their teams' postseason fate.

Giannis, Kawhi injuries put damper on Round 1

It was supposed to be the best series of the first round: the Los Angeles Clippers vs. Dallas Mavericks in their third NBA postseason meeting in the last five years.

With so many household names taking the court in that star-studded matchup, it could still live up to the hype. Yet the Clippers might be without Kawhi Leonard (knee) for Sunday's Game 1 — or even this entire series — after he missed the final eight games of the regular season.

The timing of Leonard's latest setback is a shame, because Los Angeles once looked like the best team in the West with its two-way star at the peak of his powers. That was before he wore down in February and March and missed all of April after an injection to reduce inflammation in his right knee, per The Athletic's Shams Charania.

It's a similar story in the East, where the Milwaukee Bucks are "preparing to be without" Giannis Antetokounmpo after he suffered a calf strain late in the regular season, per Wojnarowski. He won't play in Sunday's Game 1 against the Indiana Pacers, and there's a chance he could miss the entire first round.

As if it wasn't obvious how big of a loss that would be if the two-time MVP can't play, the growing pessimism surrounding Antetokounmpo's injury drew swift reaction in the NBA betting market, where Milwaukee went from a heavy favorite to beat Indiana to a virtual coin flip after a rush of money on the Pacers.

While they technically haven't made the playoffs yet, the Pelicans and Heat are in a similar boat after coming within seconds of clinching the No. 7 seeds in their respective conferences. Instead, they'll each need another win Friday to make the 16-team field, and it's unlikely either team would have its top player available for weeks into a potential playoff run.

It's easy to dismiss those injuries as being tangential to the overall title race, but consider that Butler and the Heat have been the ultimate foils over the years to the top-seeded Boston Celtics, who remain the clear favorites to win it all. Williamson is also the type of player who could cause nightmares for the undersized Oklahoma City Thunder — but only if he's healthy.

Embiid among NBA stars playing through injury

It's not just those watching from the sidelines, either. Some of the top players in this year's NBA playoffs are still reeling from midseason injuries that could realistically swing the results of Round 1.

The most obvious example is Sixers center Joel Embiid, who missed 42 games this year and played in just five of the Philadelphia 76ers' final 36 contests to close the regular season. Embiid hasn't looked like himself, and he's had several injury scares recently — briefly leaving the Sixers' play-in contest against the Heat as well as Game 1 against the New York Knicks.

This is a shame for a Sixers squad that has now gone 32-8 with last year's MVP on the court, which would stretch out to the best record in the league across a full season. It's fair to wonder if Embiid can withstand up to seven games against the physical Knicks — who, fittingly, are without second-leading scorer Julius Randle (shoulder) for the postseason.

What about Lakers star Anthony Davis, who said Tuesday he was affected by back spasms after making six of his 16 shots in 40 minutes in the play-in? Karl-Anthony Towns doesn't look the same for the Minnesota Timberwolves after missing over a month following knee surgery, while Damian Lillard — whose playoff resume includes some of the most clutch shots in league history — is limping into his first postseason with the Bucks.

No, this isn't a new issue, but it's a glaring one for the NBA after it endured years of injuries and missed games dominating the public discourse. And the league's much-ballyhooed efforts to combat those concerns haven't seemed to keep players on the court when it matters most.

Are NBA injuries on the rise?

Two years ago, a research study made headlines after concluding that NBA injuries — as measured by games missed and unique injury types — had increased over a four-year period from 2017-18 to 2020-21. That came as teams were benching star players at an untenable rate, in the league's eyes, with "load management" threatening to derail the NBA's regular-season product in exchange for the promise of a healthy postseason.

As a result, the NBA and NBPA adopted a new "Player Participation Policy" ahead of this season to discourage teams from resting stars in key spots. The league also adopted a 65-game requirement for players to be eligible for certain NBA awards and All-NBA teams — both of which can have a dramatic impact on player earning potential.

The good news: stars are indeed playing more. In last week's Board of Governors press conference, Commissioner Adam Silver said missed games were down roughly 15% from last year, with other public data supporting that shift in 2023-24.

Yet here we find ourselves on the eve of the NBA postseason with a leaguewide injury report that, ironically, could be mistaken for an All-NBA ballot at first blush. And it would naive to assume we won't add a name or two to that list over the coming weeks.

Before anyone tries to attach the dreaded "asterisk" to this year's title winner, let me save you the trouble: every champion in NBA history has enjoyed some combination of talent and injury luck. This year will be no different. But this postseason itself is already shaping up to be remembered as much for the players on the court as those on the shelf.

C Jackson Cowart

C Jackson Cowart Photo

C Jackson Cowart is an award-winning sportswriter, reporter and editor with nearly a decade of experience in the industry. In addition to his work with The Sporting News, he has also worked with theScore, Action Network, Forbes, ESPN and Sportsbook Review, covering anything from the NFL, NBA and MLB to college sports, WNBA and NASCAR. He's also a fiercely proud Oregon native and UNC alumnus who loves sports cards and high-stakes fantasy leagues as much as he hates Duke.