How much does home court actually matter? A look ahead of the NBA Finals

Jeremy Vernon

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How much does home court actually matter? A look ahead of the NBA Finals image

Game 1 of the 2024 NBA Finals between the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks tips off Thursday night at the TD Garden in Boston.

Boasting a league-best 64-18 record during the regular season, the Celtics will have home-court advantage in the Finals and will play Games 1 and 2 in front of their home crowd. But how much will this matter in the grand scheme of things?

Truth be told, not as much as you might think.

Entering this postseason, Boston had a home record of 12-13 at the Garden in the playoffs from 2021-23. They have bounced back nicely this year, though, going 6-2 in front of their home fans with their lone losses coming against the Heat and Cavaliers.

The Celtics were also historically good at home during the 2023-24 regular season, going a 37-4 — the most home wins by an NBA team in one season since the Warriors and Spurs won 39 and 40 games, respectively, in 2015-16.

According to Sports Handle, from 2013-2023 (and excluding 2020), home teams in the NBA Finals won their games 54.4% of the time, the lowest percentage of any round of the playoffs. During that same span, home teams won 59.8% of their first-round games, 63.6% of their conference semifinal games and 61.1% of their conference final games.

The Mavericks, meanwhile, have gone 5-3 at home this postseason compared to 7-2 on the road. Dallas has actually averaged more points (108.3) and is shooting better from the field (47.5%) away from the American Airlines Center.

Since the NBA-ABA merger, only eight playoff teams have won eight or more postseason games away from home. The record for most road wins in one playoffs is nine, which was set by the Rockets on their way to the 1995 NBA title. 

The Celtics actually went 8-4 on the road in the 2022 postseason before losing to the Warriors in that year's Finals.

Unfortunately for the Mavericks, NBA teams seeded fourth or lower in the playoffs have only won the Finals twice. The Rockets did it as the sixth seed in the West in 1995, while the 1969 Celtics won as the No. 4 — the same seed as this year's Dallas team.

This is the Mavericks' first NBA Finals appearance since 2011, when they defeated the Miami Heat in six games as the lower seed. After losing two of the series' first three games, Dallas rallied to win Game 4 at home before taking down the Heat on the road in Game 5. The Mavericks closed things out with a 105-95 win in Game 6 to capture the franchise's lone NBA title.

This is Boston's second Finals appearance in the last three years, though the last time the Celtics won a title was in 2008 behind Hall-of-Famers Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce.

Jeremy Vernon

Jeremy Vernon Photo

Jeremy Vernon is a reporter and editor from Greensboro, North Carolina, with a decade of experience in the industry. His previous stops include MLB.com and two local papers in N.C. — the Monroe Enquirer-Journal and the Chatham News + Record. When he isn’t working, you can likely find Jeremy at the dog park with his two-year old lab mix, Summer.