The Boston Celtics’ first-round opponent in the 2024 NBA playoffs is the Miami Heat, who will be without their best player, Jimmy Butler, for the entire series.
Butler is not the only Eastern Conference star who's currently sidelined, as Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks) is dealing with a calf injury, reigning MVP Joel Embiid (Philadelphia 76ers) still appears far from full health, and Julius Randle (New York Knicks) is out for the entire postseason for the New York Knicks.
All things considered, the Celtics may have a relatively easy route to the NBA Finals. Let's take a look at Boston’s potential opponents in the East:
Eastern Conference Quarterfinals: Heat
This matchup kicks off on Sunday, and Miami’s chances of walking away victorious are slim. Butler claims that ‘Playoff Jimmy’ is a myth, but it’s hard to deny the leap that fans see in the postseason. Without him, Miami will need Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro to step up. Herro’s offensive game is overwhelmed with inconsistency, but he's looking good entering the playoffs, as he recorded a near triple-double of 24 points, 10 rebounds, and nine assists in Friday’s win-or-go-home game against the Chicago Bulls. Meanwhile, Adebayo has looked shaky in recent weeks, scoring less than 20 points in Miami's last six games. He finished with 13 points and four rebounds against Chicago. The return of guard Terry Rozier could turn the tides to some extent, but ultimately, the Celtics should advance without much of a challenge.
Eastern Conference Semifinals: Cavaliers (No. 4) or Magic (No. 5)
The Cleveland Cavaliers would be one of their toughest opponents in the East, with their Big Four of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen in good shape. Mitchell and Garland missed the Cavs' final regular-season game with insignificant injuries (knee injury management and lower-back contusion). The tandem of Mobley and Allen in the frontcourt could cause serious trouble for Boston, who, outside of Kristaps Porzingis, lack defensive prowess in the paint. However, they match up to near perfection against the All-Star duo of Mitchell and Garland, with Jrue Holiday (a five-time All-Defensive Team selection) and Derrick White (a terrific perimeter defender who's averaging a steal and a block) in the backcourt. Tatum is a threat to any defense, but Mobley could prevent him from completely taking over games, as we’ve seen in past years. The X-factor for Cleveland is sharpshooter Max Strus, who is a threat to score more than 20 points on any given night but could also score fewer than 10 if his 3-pointer is off.
The Orlando Magic have the NBA's second-best defense, allowing 108.8 points per 100 possessions. However, Orlando's inexperience compared to the Celtics may be too big of an obstacle to overcome. Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner proved themselves as one of the best forward duos in the regular season, but this will be their first taste of the NBA playoff environment. The Magic's backcourt (led by Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony) play a scrappy, aggressive style that tends to pay off, earning them extra possessions throughout games. However, the Celtics tied with the Sixers for the fewest turnovers per game in the regular season with 11.3. It's worth noting that Orlando averages just 11 made 3-pointers per game, which is the fewest of any team in the NBA. Meanwhile, Boston leads the league in made 3s per game with 16.5.
Eastern Conference Finals: Bucks (No. 3), Knicks (No. 2), 76ers (No. 7) or Pacers (No. 6)
In 2023, the expected Eastern Conference Finals matchup between the Celtics and Bucks didn’t work out for either side, and this season may have a similar result for Milwaukee. The injury to Antetokounmpo gives unfortunate flashbacks to last season’s Round 1 matchup against the Heat, where he played in three of the five games. The star pairing of Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard is not working out as expected. Lillard’s stats against Holiday in 26 games are comparable to his typical numbers, with 24.8 points and 5.9 assists. The matchup between Tatum and Antetokounmpo would be the one to watch, with the superstars having different offensive playstyles.
The New York Knicks, alongside the Cavs, are the greatest threat to Boston's title hopes in the East. Guard Jalen Brunson was playing at an MVP-caliber level down the stretch of the year, scoring at least 35 points in six of their last seven games. Acquiring lockdown forward OG Anunoby has been a massive win, as the Knicks have lost just three of 20 games when he has suited up. He could throw Tatum out of rhythm and make him work for every basket. But how do the Knicks find answers for Jaylen Brown and Porzingis? Brown would have to be guarded by either Donte DiVincenzo or Josh Hart. Both are tenacious defenders, but slowing down the three-time All-Star is not easy. Porzingis’ ability to shine in or outside the paint would cause trouble for Isaiah Hartenstein and Mitchell Robinson, who can hold down the interior but are not as mobile as the Boston big man.
Philadelphia could pose a challenge for Boston if Embiid was at full health, but unfortunately for Sixers fans, he’s not. His box scores since returning show his usual dominance, but when watching the games, it’s clear the big man is hoping to avoid re-injury. Whether it’s missing shots that tend to fall or seeming hesitant to attack the basket at full speed, the Cameroonian center is not at his best. Tyrese Maxey emerged as a premier No. 2 option but cannot overpower the depth-filled Celtics roster on his own. Even Boston’s No. 7 scoring option, Payton Pritchard, has shown flashes when given expanded responsibilities. Not to mention, Philadelphia’s roster, especially Embiid, would likely be exhausted by the time they see Boston.
The streakiness of Tyrese Haliburton and the Indiana Pacers' rotation is something the Celtics could capitalize on. Boston's consistency on both ends of the floor will make it tough for Indiana to play their style of basketball. Haliburton and Pascal Siakam prefer to push the pace, taking advantage of simple mistakes and making them pay with never-ending scoring. This tactic will be ineffective against coach Joe Mazzulla and his team, who force others to play to their speed.
