Picking a winner based on the odds for Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race at Texas Motor Speedway (3:17 p.m. ET green flag, NBCSN) is a slight challenge because the previous six races on 1.5-mile ovals this season have produced six different winners.
Several of those past winners are at the top of the odds board for Sunday's event in Fort Worth, beginning with favorite Kevin Harvick, who took the checkered flag at Atlanta and is a multiple-time winner at Texas.
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The odds for Sunday's NASCAR race at Texas also feature a non-winner who looms as a big threat: Kyle Busch, who's trying to break a seasonlong oh-fer and has already run hundreds of laps at the track this weekend.
Below are the complete Vegas odds to win Sunday's race at Texas plus our top three picks of drivers who could end up taking the checkered flag.
NASCAR odds to win at Texas
Harvick is a logical favorite given his consistency at Texas since joining Stewart-Haas Racing (more on that below), but if you're looking for an excuse to go elsewhere, there have been some lesser results at intermediate tracks this season: eighth at Las Vegas, 10th at Charlotte and 26th at Homestead.
He was racing for the win at 1.5-mile Kentucky last weekend before a hiccup by Martin Truex Jr. shuffled him back to fourth. Don't think that won't motivate Harvick, at least a little bit.
Below are the complete odds to win Sunday's NASCAR race at Texas, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Driver | Odds to win Texas race |
| Kevin Harvick | +300 |
| Kyle Busch | +600 |
| Denny Hamlin | +650 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +850 |
| Ryan Blaney | +850 |
| Chase Elliott | +1000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1300 |
| Joey Logano | +1300 |
| Aric Almirola | +2100 |
| Jimmie Johnson | +3100 |
| Kurt Busch | +3100 |
| Alex Bowman | +3700 |
| Erik Jones | +3700 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | +3700 |
| William Byron | +4400 |
| Clint Bowyer | +5500 |
| Cole Custer | +7000 |
| Christopher Bell | +9000 |
| Tyler Reddick | +9000 |
| Austin Dillon | +13000 |
| Matt Kenseth | +13000 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +15000 |
| Ryan Newman | +15000 |
| BJ McLeod | +20000 |
| Brennan Poole | +20000 |
| Chris Buescher | +20000 |
| Corey LaJoie | +20000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +20000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +20000 |
| Garrett Smithley | +20000 |
| Gray Gaulding | +20000 |
| JJ Yeley | +20000 |
| Joey Gase | +20000 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +20000 |
| Josh Bilicki | +20000 |
| Michael McDowell | +20000 |
| Quin Houff | +20000 |
| Ryan Preece | +20000 |
| Timmy Hill | +20000 |
| Ty Dillon | +20000 |
Just four of the 38 Cup Series races at Texas have been won from the pole, including Harvick's victory in last season's fall playoff race, and seven victories total have come from the front row. Starting near the front is still an advantage: More than half the races have been won from a top-five starting position.
Below is the breakdown of wins by starting position in the history of Cup racing (38 total races) at Texas.
| Starting position | Winning % | Wins |
| 1st | 10.53 percent | 4 |
| 2nd | 7.89 percent | 3 |
| Top 5 | 57.89 percent | 22 |
| Top 10 | 78.95 percent | 30 |
| Top 20 | 86.84 percent | 33 |
| Outside top 20 | 13.16 percent | 5 |
The top 10 starters for Sunday's race at Texas (as determined by a random draw of the top 12 teams by owner points) are as follows: 1. Aric Almirola; 2. Ryan Blaney; 3. Kurt Busch; 4. Kyle Busch; 5. Kevin Harvick; 6. Brad Keselowski, 7. Denny Hamlin; 8. Chase Elliott, 9. Joey Logano; 10. Martin Truex Jr.
NASCAR at Texas expert picks
1. Kyle Busch
Busch "swept" the Xfinity and Truck Series races at Texas on Saturday, although NASCAR stripped him of the Xfinity win because the left rear of his car was a fraction of an inch too low. He's still looking for his first Cup Series triumph of the season, which would lock him into the playoffs.
2. Kevin Harvick
Harvick has won half of the six races at Texas since the track was repaved in 2017, and he has finished no worse than 10th at the track in the last 11 races dating to the 2014 fall race. That history, plus his series points lead in 2020, are among the reasons he's the betting favorite.
3. Ryan Blaney
Blaney is a non-winner at 1.5-milers this year, but he has been competitive at tracks similar to Texas: He was fourth at Atlanta, third in the Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte and third in the Charlotte makeup race days later despite starting 18th because of inversion. He'll start on the front row Sunday.
