Picking a winner for Saturday's race at the Tricky Triangle based on the odds is, well, tricky. Because this is no ordinary race weekend at Pocono Raceway in Long Pond, Pa. For the first time ever, Pocono's two dates on the NASCAR Cup Series schedule are mashed together in one weekend, a Saturday-Sunday doubleheader.
Which means the results of Saturday's race, the Pocono Organics 325, should give us a good idea of who will be competitive in Sunday's race. We don't get that luxury when it comes to picking a winner for Saturday's race.
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Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch won the pair of Pocono races last season, which is part of the reason they are two of the favorites for Saturday's race at the 2.5-mile triangle race track. That's the case even though Busch, the defending Cup Series champion, is riding a 13-race winless streak.
Below are the complete Vegas odds to win Saturday's NASCAR Cup Series race at Pocono, plus our top three picks of drivers who could end up taking the checkered flag.
NASCAR race odds to win at Pocono
Busch has three career wins at Pocono, including last June's victory. Kevin Harvick, the driver with the second best odds to win Saturday's race, has never won a Cup Series race at Pocono, but he tends to run well at the Tricky Triangle and enters the weekend as the series' points leader.
Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, below are the complete odds to win Saturday's NASCAR Cup Series race at Pocono.
| Driver | Odds to win Homestead race |
| Kyle Busch | +500 |
| Kevin Harvick | +600 |
| Denny Hamlin | +650 |
| Brad Keselowski | +750 |
| Chase Elliott | +750 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +750 |
| Joey Logano | +1200 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1200 |
| Erik Jones | +1700 |
| Alex Bowman | +1900 |
| William Byron | +1900 |
| Kurt Busch | +2300 |
| Jimmie Johnson | +2900 |
| Clint Bowyer | +5500 |
| Tyler Reddick | +7500 |
| Aric Almirola | +8000 |
| Matt Kenseth | +9500 |
| Bubba Wallace | +10000 |
| Austin Dillon | +12000 |
| Christopher Bell | +12000 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | +12000 |
| Ryan Newman | +12000 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +14000 |
| Chris Buescher | +19000 |
| Ty Dillon | +20000 |
| BJ McLeod | +20000 |
| Brennan Poole | +20000 |
| Cole Custer | +20000 |
| Corey LaJoie | +20000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +20000 |
| Garrett Smithley | +20000 |
| JJ Yeley | +20000 |
| James Davison | +20000 |
| Joey Gase | +20000 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +20000 |
| Josh Bilicki | +20000 |
| Michael McDowell | +20000 |
| Quin Houff | +20000 |
| Ryan Preece | +20000 |
| Timmy Hill | +20000 |
There's a reason all four JGR drivers are near the top of the oddsboard. The organization has won five of the last nine NASCAR Cup Series races at Pocono, including the last three consecutive — Busch’s win in July of 2017 and his back-to-back victories in July 2018 and June 2019, and Hamlin’s victory last July.
Two JGR drivers, Hamlin and Erik Jones, also have the two best driver ratings at the track.
Below are the top 10 career driver ratings at Pocono among those in Saturday's field.
- Denny Hamlin, 105.1
- Erik Jones, 103.6
- Kurt Busch, 100.7
- Jimmie Johnson, 99.1
- Kevin Harvick, 98.6
- Chase Elliott, 98.2
- Kyle Busch, 95.4
- Brad Keselowski, 94.7
- Joey Logano, 89.3
- William Byron, 88.3
The pole position, which for Saturday's race was awarded to Aric Almirola based on the results of a random draw, has produced the most Pocono race winners in the Cup Series. A total of 16 of the 84 races (19 percent) have been won by the driver who started first.
Below is the breakdown of wins from varying starting positions in the history of Cup racing at Pocono.
| Starting position | Winning % | Wins |
| 1st | 19.05 percent | 16 |
| Front row | 30.95 percent | 26 |
| Top 5 | 58.33 percent | 49 |
| Top 10 | 71.43 percent | 60 |
| Outside top 20 | 8.33 percent | 7 |
| Outside top 20 | 8.33 percent | 7 |
| Outside top 20 | 8.33 percent | 7 |
The top 10 starters for Monday's race at Pocono are as follows: 1. Aric Almirola, 2. Ryan Blaney, 3. Denny Hamlin, 4. Kyle Busch, 5. Chase Elliott, 6. Joey Logano, 7. Kurt Busch, 8. Brad Keselowski, 9. Kevin Harvick, 10. Alex Bowman
MORE: Updated NASCAR schedule for 2020
NASCAR at Pocono expert picks
(All NASCAR loop data stats are from 2005 through present.)
1. Erik Jones
Career stats at Pocono:
- Four top fives, five top 10s
- Average finish of 8.333 (series-best)
- Average running position of 8.880 (series-best)
- Driver rating of 103.6 (second-best)
- 40 fastest laps run (12th-best)
- 830 laps in top 15; 85.8 percent (13th-most)
- 218 quality passes (17th-most)
We're going with the trends. Not only has JRG been dominant at Pocono of late, but so has Toyota in general. With Toyota drivers winning the last five Cup races at Pocono, if another were to win Saturday, the manufacturer would tie Chevrolet for the most consecutive wins at Pocono with six (August 2012 - June 2015). Jones personally happens to run well at Pocono, too.
2. William Byron
Career stats at Pocono:
- One top five, three top 10s
- Average finish of 9.250 (second-best)
- Average running position of 12.023 (sixth-best)
- Driver rating of 89.0 (10th-best)
- 13 fastest laps run (17th-best)
- 458 laps in top 15; 70.8 percent (20th-most)
- 140 quality passes (21st-most)
Byron is still looking for his first career Cup Series win, and given the speed Hendrick Motorsports has shown this season (think Alex Bowman's win at Auto Club Speedway and Chase Elliott's win at Charlotte Motor Speedway), this could be his chance.
3. Kyle Busch
Career stats at Pocono:
- Three wins, eight top fives, 15 top 10s
- Average finish of 15.633 (12th-best)
- Average running position of 13.133 (11th-best)
- Driver rating of 95.4 (seventh-best)
- 322 fastest laps run (third-best)
- 3,616 laps in top 15; 69.6 percent (fourth-most)
- 1,018 quality passes (sixth-most)
The winless streak has to end at some point, and his team's hot streak at Pocono leads us to believe Busch is the favorite Saturday for good reason.