Picking a winner based on the odds for Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race at New Hampshire Speedway (3 p.m. ET, NBCSN) is a challenge because the "Magic Mile" is such a unique track.
The 1.058-mile oval in Loudon, N.H., is so flat with 2- to 7-degree variable banking in the corners that it basically drives like a short track and eats up tires. The relatively slow nature of the track is why Sunday's race is only 301 laps and 318.46 miles.
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The Foxwoods Resort Casino 301 is the one and only NASCAR Cup Series race at New Hampshire this season, as the track now hosts one Cup race per year after getting two per year from 1997-2017. So, naturally, the driver who has won the last to Cup races at New Hampshire is the favorite for Sunday's event.
Below are the complete Vegas odds to win Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race at New Hampshire plus our top three picks of drivers who could end up taking the checkered flag.
NASCAR odds to win at New Hampshire
Kevin Harvick is a relatively easy choice as the favorite for Sunday's race. He has won the last two Cup races at New Hampshire and leads all active drivers with four career victories at the track. He also happens to be the NASCAR Cup Series points leader after 19 races in 2020 with four wins on the season.
Denny Hamlin is just behind Harvick with three career victories at New Hampshire and is coming off his series-best fifth win of the 2020 season. That's why he is a close second behind Harvick on the odds board.
Below are the complete odds to win Sunday's NASCAR race at New Hampshire, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Driver | Odds to win New Hampshire race |
| Kevin Harvick | +420 |
| Denny Hamlin | +480 |
| Kyle Busch | +800 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +900 |
| Ryan Blaney | +900 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1000 |
| Chase Elliott | +1000 |
| Joey Logano | +1400 |
| Aric Almirola | +2400 |
| Alex Bowman | +3100 |
| Kurt Busch | +3100 |
| Christopher Bell | +3500 |
| Erik Jones | +3500 |
| Jimmie Johnson | +3500 |
| Matt Kenseth | +4700 |
| William Byron | +4700 |
| Clint Bowyer | +5500 |
| Cole Custer | +5500 |
| Tyler Reddick | +5500 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | +7500 |
| Austin Dillon | +8500 |
| Ryan Newman | +8500 |
| Brennan Poole | +20000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +20000 |
| Chris Buescher | +20000 |
| Corey LaJoie | +20000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +20000 |
| JJ Yeley | +20000 |
| Joey Gase | +20000 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +20000 |
| Michael McDowell | +20000 |
| Quin Houff | +20000 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +20000 |
| Ryan Preece | +20000 |
| Timmy Hill | +20000 |
| Ty Dillon | +20000 |
Below are the top 10 driver ratings at New Hampshire among active racers:
- Denny Hamlin, 103.6
- Kyle Busch, 102.4
- Jimmie Johnson, 99.1
- Kevin Harvick, 98.5
- Brad Keselowski, 98.4
- Martin Truex Jr., 95.0
- Matt Kenseth, 92.7
- Chase Elliott, 90.7
- Kurt Busch, 89.9
- Ryan Newman, 88.2
Hamlin will start Sunday's race in second place and on the front row with pole-sitter Aric Almirola. That's good news for both, as the front row has produced 18.75 percent of Cup Series winners at New Hampshire. The first starting position is the most proficient in the field, producing more winners (six) than any other starting position at the track.
Below is the breakdown of wins by starting position in the history of Cup racing (48 total races) at New Hampshire.
| Starting position | Winning % | Wins |
| 1st | 12.5 percent | 6 |
| Front row | 18.75 percent | 9 |
| Top 5 | 27.08 percent | 13 |
| Top 10 | 52.08 percent | 25 |
| Outside top 20 | 18.75 percent | 9 |
The top 10 starters for Sunday's race at New Hampshire (as determined by a random draw of the top 12 teams by owner points) are as follows:
- Aric Almirola
- Denny Hamlin
- Chase Elliott
- Brad Keselowski
- Kyle Busch
- Clint Bowyer
- Kevin Harvick
- Alex Bowman
- Joey Logano
- Kurt Busch
MORE: Complete starting lineup for New Hampshire race
NASCAR at New Hampshire expert picks
(Driver loop data stats are from 2005-present)
1. Kyle Busch
Career stats at New Hampshire:
- Three wins, 11 top fives, 16 top 10s; three poles
- Average finish of 12.607 (eighth-best)
- Average running position of 11.334 (fourth-best)
- Driver rating of 102.4 (second-best)
He has to win this season at some point, right? It might as well come at a track where he tends to run well and where Joe Gibbs Racing has 11 wins, the most for any organization at the one-mile track. If he has the speed, we know KFB has the talent to get on the board in 2020.
2. Brad Keselowski
Career stats at New Hampshire:
- One win, seven top fives, 12 top 10s; four poles
- Average finish of 11.000 (second-best)
- Average running position of 10.921 (third-best)
- Driver rating of 98.4 (fifth-best)
Statistically, Keselowski is the best of the three Team Penske drivers at New Hampshire, though his lone Cup Series win at the track came back in the summer of 2014. He led 12 laps in this race last year after starting on the pole, and his team's speed this season suggests he can finish the job in 2020.
3. Denny Hamlin
Career stats at New Hampshire:
- Three wins, 10 top fives, 15 top 10s
- Average finish of 9.885 (series-best)
- Average running position of 10.697 (series-best)
- Driver rating of 103.6 (series-best)
This would mean an absurd sixth victory in 2020 for Hamlin, but the driver of the No. 11 JGR Toyota is just too good at New Hampshire not to include as pick to win. He led 113 laps in this race last year before barely finishing second to Harvick.