The odds for Wednesday night's NASCAR Cup Series race at Martinsville Speedway are based on the combination of past results at the half-mile oval in southwest Virginia and recent short-track racing trends. Our picks to win Wednesday night's race at Martinsville are fueled by the same factors.
For example, Brad Keselowski is one of the favorites to win the night race at Martinsville not only because he won this race last year and has a great career rating at the track, but also because he emerged victorious a couple weeks ago at Bristol, the only other short-track race the Cup Series has ran thus far in 2020.
MORE: Full starting lineup for NASCAR race at Martinsville
Keselowski, though, is not the favorite for Wednesday night's race at Martinsville. That honor goes to Kyle Busch, who has yet to win in 2020 but is sitting pretty in the points standings with six top-five finishes in 10 starts.
Below are the complete Vegas odds to win Wednesday night's NASCAR Cup Series race at Martinsville, plus our top three picks of drivers who could end up taking the checkered flag.
NASCAR race odds to win at Martinsville
Busch only has a couple career wins at Martinsville, but he generally runs well at the half-mile speedway. Joe Gibbs racing also has shown better speed over the last few races — plenty for the defending series champion to be considered the favorite for this race.
Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, below are the complete odds to win Wednesday night's NASCAR Cup Series race at Martinsville, starting with Busch and his JGR teammate Martin Truex Jr.
| Driver | Odds to win Martinsville night race |
| Kyle Busch | +470 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +550 |
| Brad Keselowski | +650 |
| Denny Hamlin | +800 |
| Joey Logano | +950 |
| Chase Elliott | +1000 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1100 |
| Kevin Harvick | +1200 |
| Clint Bowyer | +1700 |
| Kurt Busch | +2100 |
| Jimmie Johnson | +2200 |
| Alex Bowman | +3000 |
| William Byron | +3000 |
| Aric Almirola | +3500 |
| Erik Jones | +4200 |
| Matt Kenseth | +5000 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | +6500 |
| Austin Dillon | +8500 |
| Ryan Newman | +8500 |
| Tyler Reddick | +11000 |
| Christopher Bell | +12000 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +12000 |
| Chris Buescher | +14000 |
| Cole Custer | +14000 |
| Brennan Poole | +20000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +20000 |
| Corey LaJoie | +20000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +20000 |
| Garrett Smithley | +20000 |
| JJ Yeley | +20000 |
| Joey Gase | +20000 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +20000 |
| Michael McDowell | +20000 |
| Ty Dillon | +20000 |
| Timmy Hill | +20000 |
| Ryan Preece | +20000 |
| Reed Sorenson | +20000 |
| Quin Houff | +20000 |
Below are the top 10 career driver ratings at Martinsville among those in Wednesday's field:
- Jimmie Johnson, 109.8
- Denny Hamlin, 107.2
- Kyle Busch, 104.1
- Brad Keselowski, 99.7
- Joey Logano, 94.7
- Ryan Blaney, 94.2
- Kevin Harvick, 94.2
- Clint Bowyer, 91.6
- Matt Kenseth, 87.9
- Chase Elliott, 87.4
The pole is the most proficient starting spot at Martinsville based on the 142-race history of the Cup Series at the track, as it has produced 21 winners. Based on the results of a random draw Monday, Ryan Blaney earned the pole for Wednesday night's race.
Busch will roll off seventh Wednesday night, on the bottom of the fourth row behind Truex (fifth) and ahead of his brother Kurt (ninth). Keselowski drew the sixth starting position.
Below is the breakdown of wins from varying starting positions in the history of Cup racing at Martinsville.
| Starting position | Winning % | Wins |
| 1st | 14.79 percent | 21 |
| Front row | 25.35 percent | 36 |
| Top 5 | 52.11 percent | 74 |
| Top 10 | 72.54 percent | 103 |
| Outside Top 20 | 4.93 percent | 7 |
The top 10 starters for Wednesday's race at Martinsville are as follows: 1. Ryan Blaney, 2. Aric Almirola, 3. Joey Logano, 4. Clint Bowyer, 5. Martin Truex Jr., 6. Brad Keselowski, 7. Kyle Busch, 8. Alex Bowman, 9. Kurt Busch, 10. Kevin Harvick
MORE: Updated NASCAR schedule for 2020
NASCAR at Martinsville expert picks
1. Kyle Busch
Career stats at Martinsville:
- Two wins, 16 top fives, 17 top 10s
- Average finish of 12.069 (fourth-best)
- Average running position of 10.441 (fourth-best)
- Driver rating of 104.1 (third-best)
- 861 fastest laps run (third-best)
- 11,528 laps in top 15; 79.3 percent (third-most)
- 919 quality passes (third-most)
Busch obviously has the speed to win, as evidenced by both his six top-five finishes this season and JGR teammate Denny Hamlin's pair of victories. Late-race luck has not been on his side, and although Martinsville is a tricky race to navigate in a clean manner, Busch has the skill to earn a win if his team gets him in position.
2. Ryan Blaney
Career stats at Martinsville:
- Three top fives, four top 10s
- Average finish of 12.875 (fifth-best)
- Average running position of 10.429 (third-best)
- Driver rating of 94.2 (sixth-best)
- 101 fastest laps run (14th-best)
- 2,711 laps in top 15; 67.7 percent (14th-most)
- 154 quality passes (16th-most)
The pole is a big help, but Blaney has been fast all season and is looking to join Penske teammates Keselowski and Joey Logano as 2020 race winners. He has started only eight Cup races at Martinsville, so the three career top-five finishes at the paperclip are impressive.
3. Jimmie Johnson
Career stats at Martinsville:
- Nine wins, 19 top fives, 24 top 10s
- Average finish of 9.267 (series-best)
- Average running position of 9.413 (second-best)
- Driver rating of 109.8 (series-best)
- 1,143 fastest laps run (series-best)
- 12,073 laps in top 15; 80.3 percent (series-most)
- 957 quality passes (second-most)
Johnson's winless streak has to end at some point, right? And if so, why not at a track where Johnson statistically is the best in the field? Johnson and all of his Hendrick Motorsports teammates have the speed to compete this season, and the No. 48 team managed a second-place finish at Bristol. Maybe that short-track success was a sign of bigger things to come for one of the all-time greats at one of NASCAR's most historic tracks.
(All NASCAR loop data stats are from 2005 through present.)