Picking a winner based on the odds for Thursday night's NASCAR Cup Series race at Kansas Speedway (7:30 p.m. ET, NBCSN) is a challenge because the previous seven races on 1.5-mile ovals this season have produced seven different winners. And as Austin Dillon proved last week, a late-race shuffle could lead to an upset winner even at an intermediate track.
Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin won the pair of Cup Series races at Kansas last season with the same rules package being used in 2020, and both are near the top of the odds board for Thursday night's race. But Kevin Harvick is the clear favorite at Kansas.
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Martin Truex Jr., also known as Mile-And-A-Half Martin, naturally is near the top of the odds board, as well, even though his lone win so far this season came on a short track (Martinsville) rather than a 1.5-mile oval. He did finish third at Atlanta and second at Kentucky.
Below are the complete Vegas odds to win Thursday night's NASCAR Cup Series race at Kansas plus our top three picks of drivers who could end up taking the checkered flag.
NASCAR odds to win at Kansas
Harvick, the NASCAR Cup Series points leader, is the favorite for Thursday night's race with good reason. He has the best driver rating (108.7) at Kansas among all drivers in the field, and he and Jimmie Johnson are tied for the most career victories at this track among active drivers with three apiece.
As if Harvick needed any help, he was given the pole position to start Thursday night's race based on the results of a random draw. Joey Logano will join Harvick on the front row.
Below are the complete odds to win Sunday's NASCAR race at Kansas, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Driver | Odds to win Kansas race |
| Kevin Harvick | +420 |
| Chase Elliott | +650 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +700 |
| Kyle Busch | +850 |
| Denny Hamlin | +900 |
| Ryan Blaney | +900 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1200 |
| Joey Logano | +1600 |
| Aric Almirola | +2100 |
| Alex Bowman | +2600 |
| Kurt Busch | +3100 |
| Erik Jones | +3100 |
| Jimmie Johnson | +3900 |
| Tyler Reddick | +3900 |
| Clint Bowyer | +5500 |
| William Byron | +5500 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | +5500 |
| Austin Dillon | +7500 |
| Cole Custer | +8500 |
| Matt Kenseth | +8500 |
| Christopher Bell | +13000 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +15000 |
| Ryan Newman | +15000 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +15000 |
| Chris Buescher | +17000 |
| Ryan Preece | +20000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +20000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +20000 |
| Ty Dillon | +20000 |
| Corey LaJoie | +20000 |
| Michael McDowell | +20000 |
| Brennan Poole | +20000 |
| Joey Gase | +20000 |
| Timmy Hill | +20000 |
| Quin Houff | +20000 |
| JJ Yeley | +20000 |
| Josh Bilicki | +20000 |
| BJ McLeod | +20000 |
| Garrett Smithley | +20000 |
| Reed Sorenson | +20000 |
Below are the top 10 driver ratings at Kansas among active racers:
- Kevin Harvick, 108.7
- Matt Kenseth, 103.1
- Jimmie Johnson, 102.3
- Martin Truex Jr., 99.6
- Chase Elliott, 96.5
- Ryan Blaney, 94.7
- Kyle Busch, 91.8
- Brad Keselowski, 91.4
- Denny Hamlin, 88.4
- Kurt Busch, 88.4
Harvick has won the pole for the Kansas spring race the past two years, winning in 2018. Of the 28 Cup Series race winners at Kansas since 2001, six of them started on the pole, making the top spot statistically the most proficient starting position in the field.
Below is the breakdown of wins by starting position in the history of Cup racing (28 total races) at Kansas.
| Starting position | Winning % | Wins |
| 1st | 21.43 percent | 6 |
| Front row | 25 percent | 7 |
| Top 5 | 46.43 percent | 13 |
| Top 10 | 57.14 percent | 16 |
| Outside top 20 | 10.71 percent | 3 |
The top 10 starters for Thursday night's race at Kansas (as determined by a random draw of the top 12 teams by owner points) are as follows: 1. Kevin Harvick, 2. Joey Logano, 3. Aric Almirola, 4. Ryan Blaney, 5. Martin Truex Jr., 6. Alex Bowman, 7. Brad Keselowski, 8. Kyle Busch, 9. Kurt Busch, 10. Denny Hamlin
MORE: Complete starting lineup for Kansas race
NASCAR at Kansas expert picks
1. Kevin Harvick
- Three wins, eight top fives, 15 top 10s
- Average finish of 8.583, series-best
- Average running position of 9.022, series-best
- Driver rating of 108.7, series-best
As the points standings show, Harvick's team has been the most consistent and arguably the best in the Cup Series this season on all tracks, but especially intermediate circuits. Add Harvick's history of success at Kansas to the equation, and we have an easy pick to make.
2. Ryan Blaney
- Three top fives, five top 10s
- Average finish of 15.700, 11th-best
- Average running position of 10.086, second-best
- Driver rating of 94.7, sixth-best
Blaney undoubtedly had the best car at Texas last week and likely would have won the race had a caution not come out during a green flag pit stop cycle late in the race. He'll have a chance for redemption at a similar track Thursday night.
3. Martin Truex Jr.
- Two wins, eight top fives, 10 top 10s
- Average finish of 13.870, sixth-best
- Average running position of 11.542, fifth-best
- Driver rating of 99.6, fourth-best
Truex tends to run well at Kansas, as only Harvick, Blaney, Johnson and Matt Kenseth have better career average running positions at the track. He is statistically the best Joe Gibbs Racing driver at Kansas, giving him an edge in a strong JGR stable that's looking for its first win in a month.