The odds for Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead-Miami Speedway are based on the combination of past results at the 1.5-mile oval in South Florida and recent intermediate track racing trends. Our picks to win Sunday's race at Homestead are fueled by the same factors.
For example, two of the top three drivers on the odds board have won at Homestead over the last three years. Those wins, of course, made Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. NASCAR Cup Series champions in 2019 and 2017, respectively. Now the Homestead race will play out during the first half of the season with much less on the line.
MORE: Full starting lineup for NASCAR race at Martinsville
The fact that the Homestead Cup event is now a day race is an interesting X-factor, as the 1.5-mile oval will be much slicker in the heat of June as opposed to conditions for a night race in November.
Below are the complete Vegas odds to win Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead, plus our top three picks of drivers who could end up taking the checkered flag.
NASCAR race odds to win at Homestead
Kevin Harvick sits alongside Truex atop the odds board with good reason. Harvick, the NASCAR Cup Series points leader, has the best career driver rating at Homestead among those in Sunday's field. This will be his 20th Cup Series start at the track in South Florida.
Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook, below are the complete odds to win Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead.
| Driver | Odds to win Homestead race |
| Kevin Harvick | +470 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +470 |
| Kyle Busch | +500 |
| Chase Elliott | +800 |
| Joey Logano | +850 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1000 |
| Denny Hamlin | +1000 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1100 |
| Alex Bowman | +2200 |
| Jimmie Johnson | +2500 |
| Clint Bowyer | +2800 |
| Kurt Busch | +2800 |
| William Byron | +4200 |
| Erik Jones | +5000 |
| Aric Almirola | +6500 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | +6500 |
| Matt Kenseth | +6500 |
| Austin Dillon | +7500 |
| Ryan Newman | +7500 |
| Tyler Reddick | +7500 |
| Bubba Wallace | +11000 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +12000 |
| Chris Buescher | +14000 |
| Christopher Bell | +18000 |
| BJ McLeod | +20000 |
| Brennan Poole | +20000 |
| Cole Custer | +20000 |
| Corey LaJoie | +20000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +20000 |
| Garrett Smithley | +20000 |
| JJ Yeley | +20000 |
| Ty Dillon | +20000 |
| Joey Gase | +20000 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +20000 |
| Michael McDowell | +20000 |
| Quin Houff | +20000 |
| Ryan Preece | +20000 |
| Timmy Hill | +20000 |
Below are the top 10 career driver ratings at Homestead among those in Sunday's field:
- Kevin Harvick, 108.8
- Martin Truex Jr., 107.3
- Matt Kenseth, 105.2
- Kyle Busch, 102.3
- Denny Hamlin, 97.4
- Joey Logano, 94.2
- Jimmie Johnson, 93.7
- Chase Elliott, 91.8
- Brad Keselowski, 89.2
- Clint Bowyer, 85.9
Denny Hamlin (2009, 2013) and Kyle Busch (2015, 2019) lead all active drivers in wins at Homestead with two apiece.
There have been 21 NASCAR Cup Series races at Homestead, and six of them featured winners who started on the front row — two from the pole and four from second. Hamlin and Joey Logano will start on the front row for Sunday's race.
Below is the breakdown of wins from varying starting positions in the history of Cup racing at Homestead.
| Starting position | Winning % | Wins |
| 1st | 9.5 percent | 2 |
| Front row | 28.6 percent | 6 |
| Top 5 | 61.9 percent | 13 |
| Top 10 | 71.4 percent | 15 |
| Outside top 20 | 28.6 percent | 6 |
The top 10 starters for Wednesday's race at Homestead are as follows: 1. Denny Hamlin, 2. Joey Logano, 3. Brad Keselowski, 4. Kyle Busch, 5. Chase Elliott, 6. Martin Truex Jr., 7. Kevin Harvick, 8. Alex Bowman, 9. Jimmie Johnson, 10. Kurt Busch
MORE: Updated NASCAR schedule for 2020
NASCAR at Homestead expert picks
1. Kyle Busch
Career stats at Homestead:
- Two wins, five top fives, eight top 10s
- Average finish of 16.333 (12th-best)
- Average running position of 11.913 (seventh-best)
- Driver rating of 102.3 (fourth-best)
- 284 fastest laps run (second-best)
- 3,014 laps in top 15; 75.2 percent (fourth-most)
- 587 quality passes (eighth-most)
Busch's relative struggles this season were amplified by a bad race at Martinsville on Wednesday night, but his team likely will welcome its return to the track where it won a championship last season. Busch obviously has the speed and the talent to win; his team just needs to put together a complete race for him to finally notch a victory in 2020.
2. Kevin Harvick
Career stats at Homestead:
- One win, 11 top fives, 17 top 10s
- Average finish of 5.533 (series-best)
- Average running position of 7.886 (series-best)
- Driver rating of 108.8 (series-best)
- 251 fastest laps run (third-best)
- 3,401 laps in top 15; 84.9 percent (series-most)
- 644 quality passes (sixth-most)
Simply put: Harvick statistically is the best driver in the field at Homestead. And as evidenced by Harvick's win last week at Atlanta, we know his No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing team has the speed it needs to succeed at an intermediate track on a hot day.
3. Chase Elliott
Career stats at Homestead:
- One top five, two top 10s
- Average finish of 9.500 (fourth-best)
- Average running position of 11.296 (fourth-best)
- Driver rating of 91.8 (eighth-best)
- 26 fastest laps run (15th-best)
- 843 laps in top 15; 78.9 percent (14th-most)
- 227 quality passes (14th-most)
This is less about Elliott's relatively short history at Homestead and more about Hendrick Motorsports' speed in 2020. Elliott and his teammates have been competitive at all types of tracks this year, and the No. 9 team's strong recent runs at Darlington, Charlotte and Atlanta suggest NASCAR's most popular driver could be in for another big day at an intermediate track.
(All NASCAR loop data stats are from 2005 through present.)