Picking a winner based on the odds for Sunday's NASCAR race at the Daytona International Speedway road course (3 p.m. ET, NBC) is as big of a crap shoot as there is in motorsports. This not only is the Cup Series' first road course race of the season, but it's the first time Cup cars have ever taken to the road course at NASCAR's most famous track.
Oh, and there were no prior practice of qualifying sessions ahead of Sunday's race. Drivers could only prepare on simulators, and we're left playing a guessing game regarding who will win.
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The road course at Daytona is a bit of a hybrid track, as the superspeedway's high banks are part of the 3.61-mile circuit with chicanes added toward the end of the backstretch and the entry of the tri-oval. The only somewhat comparable course on the NASCAR schedule is the Charlotte Motor Speedway ROVAL, so it's no surprise to see the winner of the last ROVAL race, Chase Elliott, at the top of the odds board for Daytona.
Below are the complete Vegas odds to win Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race at the Daytona road course, plus our top three picks of drivers who could end up taking the checkered flag.
NASCAR odds to win at Daytona road course
Elliott and Ryan Blaney are the only drivers who have won Cup Series races on the ROVAL at Charlotte, last year and in 2018, respectively. Which is why they both are expected to run well on a comparable track at Daytona.
They are joined near the top of the Daytona road course odds board by some 2020 season regulars in Martin Truex Jr., Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin.
Below are the complete odds to win Sunday's NASCAR race at Daytona, courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.
| Driver | Odds to win Daytona RC race |
| Chase Elliott | +420 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +600 |
| Kevin Harvick | +650 |
| Denny Hamlin | +650 |
| Ryan Blaney | +900 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1000 |
| Kyle Busch | +1200 |
| Joey Logano | +1700 |
| Kurt Busch | +1900 |
| Erik Jones | +1900 |
| Clint Bowyer | +1900 |
| Alex Bowman | +2400 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | +3100 |
| Jimmie Johnson | +3500 |
| William Byron | +3500 |
| Christopher Bell | +3500 |
| Aric Almirola | +4700 |
| Tyler Reddick | +5500 |
| Cole Custer | +5500 |
| Matt Kenseth | +8500 |
| Ryan Newman | +8500 |
| Chris Buescher | +15000 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +17000 |
| Austin Dillon | +17000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +20000 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +20000 |
| Brennan Poole | +20000 |
| Michael McDowell | +20000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +20000 |
| Ty Dillon | +20000 |
| Ryan Preece | +20000 |
| Ross Chastain | +20000 |
| Quin Houff | +20000 |
| JJ Yeley | +20000 |
| Joey Gase | +20000 |
| Corey LaJoie | +20000 |
Doubt is the one constant among drivers heading into Sunday's race at the Daytona road course. Some have experience at the track in different types of cars, and others don't. But everybody is on the same playing field in terms of experience in a Cup car on the Daytona road course.
"I'm not really sure," Martin Truex Jr. stated frankly after last week's Michigan race when asked whether his road course prowess will transition to Daytona. "I've only been on that track once; it was back in I think '04 when I ran the IROC series, we raced there. I didn't do very good. ...
"I know iRacing has the track, so get on there, get familiarized, hopefully be able to learn a little bit from that. ... I'm looking forward to it. It's going to be wild, for sure. A lot of question marks."
Which means track position surely will be key Sunday, and Truex is one of three Joe Gibbs Racing drivers starting in the first three positions. That bodes well for JGR's stable and all other teams starting an unprecedented race toward the front.
The top 10 starters for Sunday's race at Daytona (as determined by a new starting lineup formula) are as follows:
- Kevin Harvick
- Denny Hamlin
- Martin Turex Jr.
- Kyle Busch
- Joey Logano
- Aric Almirola
- Chase Elliott
- Kurt Busch
- Matt DiBenedetto
- Austin Dillon
MORE: Complete starting lineup for Daytona road course
NASCAR at Daytona road course expert picks
1. Chase Elliott
We have to go with the favorite not only because Elliott won the ROVAL race at Charlotte last fall, but he also has won the last two Cup Series races at Watkins Glen International. He clearly has this road course racing thing down to a science.
Couple that with the fact that Elliott has shown the best speed in the Hendrick Motorsports stable this season, and you get a good chance at a historic win for one of NASCAR's most popular drivers.
2. Martin Truex Jr.
Like Elliott, Truex has been strong on road courses of late, winning the last two Cup Series races at Sonoma Raceway. (The 2020 Sonoma race was canceled amid the COVID-19 pandemic.)
Joe Gibbs Racing has been one of the strongest organizations top to bottom in the Cup Series this season, and Truex obviously has the skills required to win this kind of race.
3. Kyle Busch
Speaking of JGR power, Busch has been surprisingly lacking in 2020, still winless through 22 races. But the defending series champion's team has shown better speed of late, and he does have a few road course wins on his Cup Series resume, two at Sonoma (2008 and 2015) and two at Watkins Glen (2008 and 2013).
Busch's winless streak is irrelevant in such a unique race. The Cup Series is running a new rules package at the Daytona road course (high downforce aero combined with the 750-horsepower engine used at short tracks and road courses), and we trust Busch as much if not more than anybody to get a handle on it quickly.