Picking a winner based on the odds for Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race at Darlington Raceway (6 p.m. ET on NBCSN) is tricky since the Southern 500 is so much longer than each of the pair of races the series ran at this track when it returned to live racing back in May. This 500-mile race tends to be a war of attrition.
Of course, with that said, there's little reason to pick against the drivers who won those two Darlington races in the spring. They're the same two drivers who have dominated much of the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series season.
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Nobody should be surprised to see Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin atop the odds board for Sunday's race at Darlington. They enter the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs first and second, respectively, in the points standings. And together, they have won exactly half of the 26 races thus far this season.
Below are the complete Vegas odds to win Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race at Darlington, plus our top three picks of drivers who could end up taking the checkered flag.
NASCAR odds to win at Darlington
Harvick won the first of two previously unscheduled Darlington races this season in May, which marked NASCAR's return to live racing after a two-month hiatus amid the COVID-19 pandemic. A few nights later, Hamlin took the checkered flag in the second Darlington race.
Below are the complete odds to win Sunday's NASCAR race at Darlington, courtesy of Sports Insider.
| Driver | Odds to win Darlington race |
| Denny Hamlin | +300 |
| Kevin Harvick | +300 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +750 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1000 |
| Kyle Busch | +1000 |
| Chase Elliott | +1200 |
| Joey Logano | +1800 |
| Erik Jones | +2500 |
| Kurt Busch | +2500 |
| Ryan Blaney | +2500 |
| Aric Almirola | +2800 |
| Alex Bowman | +3300 |
| Jimmie Johnson | +3300 |
| Clint Bowyer | +4000 |
| Matt DiBenedetto | +5000 |
| Tyler Reddick | +5000 |
| William Byron | +5000 |
| Christopher Bell | +7500 |
| Austin Dillon | +8000 |
| Cole Custer | +10000 |
| Matt Kenseth | +15000 |
| Ryan Newman | +15000 |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +20000 |
| Chris Buescher | +25000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +25000 |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +50000 |
| Ty Dillon | +50000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +75000 |
| JJ Yeley | +75000 |
| Michael McDowell | +75000 |
| Brennan Poole | +100000 |
| Corey LaJoie | +100000 |
| James Davison | +100000 |
| Joey Gase | +100000 |
| Josh Bilicki | +100000 |
| Quin Houff | +100000 |
| Reed Sorenson | +100000 |
| Ryan Preece | +100000 |
| Timmy Hill | +100000 |
Hamlin statistically is the best driver in the field at Darlington. His Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Erik Jones failed to make the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, but Jones, who won last year's Southern 500, is second to Hamlin in terms of career driver rating at this track.
Below are the top 10 driver ratings at Darlington among those in Sunday's field. (Driver ratings compiled from 2005-2020 races among active drivers at Darlington.)
- Denny Hamlin, 106.7
- Erik Jones, 106.6
- Kevin Harvick, 103.5
- Kyle Busch, 102.9
- Brad Keselowski, 99.9
- Martin Truex Jr., 99.6
- Jimmie Johnson, 95.3
- Joey Logano, 89.5
- Matt Kenseth, 89.1
- Ryan Newman, 88.4
The formula to determine the starting lineup of Sunday's race (and all others moving forward without qualifying) took into account points standings and results from the previous race. So Chase Elliott, who finished second last week at Daytona and also recorded the fastest lap of the race, will start on the pole Sunday at Darlington.
Which is good news for the No. 9 team, as the pole has produced the most Darlington wins among all starting positions.
Below is the breakdown of wins by starting position in the 118-race history of the NASCAR Cup Series at Darlington.
MORE: Complete starting lineup for Darlington race
NASCAR at Darlington expert picks
(Statistics are Loop Data from 2005 – present)
1. Denny Hamlin
Career stats at Darlington:
- Three wins, nine top fives, 13 top 10s and one pole in 16 starts
- Average finish of 7.188 (second-best)
- Average running position of 8.131 (series-best)
- Driver rating of 106.7 (series-best)
Hamlin is too strong of a favorite not to pick. This speed his team has this season combined with his track record at Darlington makes him the strongest contender. He also will start the race on the front row with Elliott.
2. Kevin Harvick
Career stats at Darlington:
- Two wins, 10 top fives, 14 top 10s and two poles in 25 starts
- Average finish of 11.235 (sixth-best)
- Average running position of 10.948 (fifth-best)
- Driver rating of 103.5 (third-best)
On the same note, Harvick is another strong favorite for good reason, and we can't ignore it. While his Darlington stats aren't on the level of those of Hamlin, Harvick certainly has the speed to win another race on an intermediate track.
3. Martin Truex Jr.
Career stats at Darlington:
- One win, two top fives, eight top 10s in 16 starts
- Average finish of 11.125 (fifth-best)
- Average running position of 11.138 (sixth-best)
- Driver Rating of 99.6 (sixth-best)
Truex is on a ridiculous, eight-race streak of top-four finishes, including what at one point was five straight third-place finishes. That speed suggests he has to break through for his second win of the season at some point, right?